Rushing to register? Limbaugh’s efforts not yet showing signs of big effects in Pennsylvania
Dante Chinni
Posted: 03.27.2008 / 8:01 AM EDT
Say this for Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio host is nothing if not inventive. When his own choice for the Republican presidential nomination, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, was defeated, he turned his attention to the contest where he could still have an impact: the Democratic Party’s presidential primaries.
Under a plan he calls “Operation Chaos,” Mr. Limbaugh urges his listeners to vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the purpose of dragging on the Democratic Party’s primary season as long as possible. The hope, of course, is a drawn-out process that splits the Democrats.
How successful has Limbaugh been? It depends who you ask. The radio dial’s best-known right-winger says his army of “dittoheads” is responsible for Mrs. Clinton winning the primary in Texas, as well as padding her margin in Ohio.
If you poke through the comments on this site, you’ll see more than a few claim that Limbaugh’s efforts also did things like lower Sen. Barack Obama’s margin of victory in the Mississippi primary.
Now Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary is in Limbaugh’s sights, say some Democratic voters, many of whom are supporters of Mr. Obama. They point to news reports showing massive action in voter registration in the Keystone State.
A plan like “Operation Chaos” is a conspiracy theorist’s dream. After all, it’s not often someone is talking openly about a plan to rig an election. But could something as, well, Dr. Evil-sounding as “Operation Chaos” actually have an effect on the campaign?
Patchwork correspondents in Philadelphia are dubious.
“I don’t think it will have a significant impact,” says one. “I think this sort of ‘tactical’ approach to primaries makes all the sense in the world to professional political junkies but not the average voter.”
John Saler, a veteran adviser to Philadelphia political campaigns, says he knows a few Republican friends in California who had cast gremlinesque votes in the state’s Feb. 5 Democratic primary, hoping to hurt their opposition, but there was not much talk in his hometown.
“I’m one of the few uncommitted and I have friends on both sides and I have heard nothing,” Mr. Saler says.
Still, a few people have suggested that while heavily Democratic Philadelphia may not be a good target for Limbaugh’s plan, other counties in the Keystone State could be.
“The answer,” well-known Philadelphia political ad man Neil Oxman wrote in an e-mail, “is that somebody needs to look at what counties those switches came in and what places in those counties the switches occurred. If switches were in liberal places in Montgomery County, I don’t think they were Limbaugh people. If they were in conservative places in Clinton County, they very well might be.”
So we looked. We found Limbaugh’s on-air urgings could wind up affecting the Pennsylvania race, but probably not.
The final results aren’t in yet (Pennsylvania’s voter registration deadline was Monday). But in the past two weeks before March 17, more than 51,000 voters in the state switched to register as Democrats. Pennsylvania rules allow only registered Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary. So Republicans and Independents wanting to vote in the Democratic contest had to switch their affiliation by the voter registration deadline.
Most of those switches though, about 28,000, were in the counties that voted for John Kerry in 2004. Many were in Democratic strongholds such as Montgomery County, which had more than 3,400 switches.
In the state’s most conservative counties – those that gave President Bush more than 70 percent of their vote – a little more than 1,000 people switched to register as Democrats.
Still, that doesn’t mean Operation Chaos will have no effect at all. Remember: All those registrations that came in at the deadline aren’t included in the tally yet. And 23,000-plus of the Democratic switches did come in counties that voted for Mr. Bush in 2004.
But many of those counties were close in 2004, which could indicate that many voters switched to have a chance to vote in the first hotly contested presidential primary that Pennsylvania has seen in decades.
March 27th, 2008 at 12:09 pm EDT
Mr. Chinni,
Interesting article! If you’d had space, some controls would have been interesting and perhaps cleared things up a bit for me- how many voters changed from Democrat to Republican in the same areas? How do these changes compare to, say, the same time period in previous elections or to national trends? And the switches, how significant are these in terms of overall numbers (are the 3,400 switches in Montgomery County 90% of the total number of Republicans registered there, or 0.1%)?
Frightening, in any case… thanks for the information.
David Kehoe
March 27th, 2008 at 1:04 pm EDT
I doubt if there’s anything really sinister going on. It’s highly improbable that McCain will win the presidency. Republicans may just be hedging their bets and voting for the least objectionable Democrat. As a longtime resident of a state in which Democrats frequently ran unopposed, I became accustomed to voting in the Democratic primary because that was the only election where there was a choice of candidates.
March 27th, 2008 at 2:47 pm EDT
So Limbaugh doesn’t like Mccain, huh? I urge all Dems to switch their votes for the general election, and go for Mccain. That’ll show those dittoheads!
March 27th, 2008 at 7:50 pm EDT
A few years ago California’s primaries were open, but not anymore. Mr. Saler’s Republican friends could not have voted for a Democratic candidate in the February 5th primaries if they were registered Republicans. (If they were registered as Democrats or “decline to state” they could have). See http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_decline.htm for details.
March 27th, 2008 at 8:02 pm EDT
I voted in the Democratic primary for the first time in my life — but not to create chaos in the party or the country. I did so because my conscience would not allow me to vote for another Republican after the way Bush has devastated this nation in every possible way. I’m sorry to hear that some people are influenced by a radio talk show host who sounds like he seeks to further divide instead of unite the people. I guess it’s no surprise who I voted for, huh?
March 27th, 2008 at 8:03 pm EDT
I live in rural northwestern Pennsylvania and a couple of days ago our local paper featured a story on the number of last minute crossover registrations - Republican to Democrat - being filed. Sadly, instead of covering the good efforts of our local Democratic party to encourage citizen involvement and increase their rolls, the article focused on a few people who were switching solely to vote against Obama. I have no doubt that that they were influenced by twits such as Limbaugh.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:17 am EDT
After reading the article carefully it became apparent that the heading was wrong. It really should say Rush Limbaugh is trying change the election and we don’t know yet if he did it or not. The heading is misleading and seems to reflect bias in the author.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:28 am EDT
The Dems are now enjoying a practice that they started. Also, where is the outrage over Dems sending busloads of people from NY to vote in VT? Where is the outrage over the money paid out in black districts to buy votes?
And if “republicans” can’t vote in any election it souns like they are being “disinfranchised” . . . this is still America, home of the free, isn’t it?
The Dem’s always have to whine and play the victim . . . .
March 28th, 2008 at 1:43 pm EDT
In Georgia, the Democrats would always vote for the weaker Republican candidate in open primaries so they could beat him or her in November. This was due to open primaries. It seems that everyone thought that was fine and dandy to do, at least those on the left side of the aisle. Now that the left wingers and Democrats are on the receiving end of this tactic from Republicans, the Democrats, the University types, the entertainment, and the media types are crying foul.
I used to be a Democrat. I used to be a Republican. Now I am a Libertarian as they are the only party that wants to return government back to its strict Constitutional Limits.
[Admin: Readers don't think this comment adds to the discussion.]
March 28th, 2008 at 3:16 pm EDT
**** in the previous post stands for p.o.o.p.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:46 pm EDT
It’s hard to blame this on Rush, Hillary, or any single individual for this prolonged primary. Racism is embedded into the very fabric of this culture and nearly half of all Democrats clearly don’t want to see a person of color succeed. That’s why Hillary and the Clinton political machine have derailed Obama’s hopeful message by hitting him with nothing but attacks and accusations.
Hillary knows that a thoughtful and honest exchange of ideas would expose her to be a fraud. She claims to be a socialist, but she’s so self absorbed and power hungry that I doubt she’d even bother imposing her policies if elected. Obama’s the real deal. He wants to bring us the kind of freedom that our neighbors in Canada have been enjoying for decades IN SPITE of the fact that nearly half of the people in this country, and his own party, hate him because of the color of his skin.
March 28th, 2008 at 5:23 pm EDT
This is in response to Carlos:
I am a person of “color”, asian to be more precise, and also an “independent”. I do not dislike Obama because he is black; I dislike him because he is too far to the “left”. I do not wish to see the pemdulum swing from the far right to the far left. I prefer Clinton because of her “centrist” position.
From my point of view, if Obama gets the nomination, I will be voting for McCain. My rationale is that I would rather vote for a “moderate” Republican than a “liberal” Democrat anytime.
March 28th, 2008 at 9:04 pm EDT
Limbaugh and his silly little caper remind me of the Southpark episode where Butters’ alter ego Professor Chaos devised a plot to destroy the world by leaving his father’s garden hose on all night. At least Rush is keeping himself occupied with this childish prank. No real harm done. If anything it’s keeping him away from the dope and the underaged prostitutes in the Dominican Republic.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:13 am EDT
Rush’s Operation Chaos has failed here in PA.
I re-registered as a Democrat in order to VOTE FOR OBAMA.
And many other Republicans I know are doing the same thing.
We want Obama as the Democratic Nominee because he’ll lose in a landslide to McCain in November.
(Can you say McGovern?)
So Operation Chaos is DEAD.
We want Obama as the Dems’ nominee.
April 27th, 2008 at 4:15 pm EDT
April 27th, 2008 at 5:59 pm EDT
I think Rush is really a Hillary lover but afraid to be outspoken like Ann Coulter. I can’t imagine why anyone wants Hillary in the race any longer. She loves power for herself and that’s it. She had 8 years to make all those changes she talks about with her wonderful experience. She is a Washington insider and with all her money she does not know what the little people out here are going through. Everyone forgets she helped the Black Panthers back in the 60’s as part of her “experience”.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:21 pm EDT
We are fighting and dying for democracy and fair elections overseas, while this bozo is fooling around with the process at home. Orchestrating a fraudulent vote campaign expressly so the R’s can continue the war for which democracy was the justification. Where is the moral outrage? Certainly not in this column. Not among the EIB advertisers. It’s time to ask McCain about it.
It’s time to give $ again to Obama’s campaign. Step up people!
May 6th, 2008 at 2:48 pm EDT
Who has the time to deal with this. Realistically with the price of gas, stagnet wages, loss of jobs to India,Pakistan,and China. The Amnesty Bill threatening to destroy our history and way of life and over time certainly our culture, I see more appeasement and not much leadership. The Average Republican has a job, a family of more than a husband and wife and pays taxes. With the pace of today and the scramble to survival and the parania of retirement as mission impossible who has the time to play games with primaries. We got into this mess because no-one really wants to think it through or get that much involved but a few activists. College kids for example talk a good line but don’t vote in numbers come election day due to how busy they are. Only a few hardcore ditto heads would cross over to think they are making an impact.