National Implications of the Democratic Victory in Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District
Robert Goidel
Posted: 05.04.2008 / 1:30 PM EDT
Statisticians warn about generalizing beyond the single case, but it is difficult to resist the temptation of drawing larger meaning from the special election held yesterday for U.S. Representative in Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District.
Democrat Don Cazayoux won a seat held by Republicans since 1974 against the better known - but more controversial - Republican Woody Jenkins. Jenkins had support among the religious right but left many moderate “good government” Republicans uneasy with his nomination. While the National Republican Congressional Committee did spend $600,000 and conservative groups poured money into the district as well, Republican Party support of Jenkins was somewhat muted and Republicans were significantly outspent by Democratic Party committees.
Republican ads attempted to link Cazayoux with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and likely Democratic nominee Barack Obama. While it is difficult to say the ads had no effect, they clearly were not sufficient to denying Cazayoux the election. For those who would interpret Cazayoux’s victory as an indication that efforts to link Obama to local candidates will be unsuccessful, they should keep in mind that Cazayoux actively worked to distance himself from national (and more liberal) Democratic leaders (including Obama). Moreover, his record as a conservative state lawmaker made such a connection a tough sell.
Cazayoux, for his part, ran as “John Breaux” Democratic stressing his pro-life, pro-gun resume, while highlighting his family and his support for health care reform in his television commercials.
For Republicans hoping the state had permanently realigned with Bobby Jindal’s victory in 2007, the loss signifies the continuing importance of individual candidates and larger national partisan tides. Jindal, with approval ratings recently reported in the 77 percent stratosphere, appeared in Jenkins’ ads, but seemed to make it a point to not actively campaign on behalf of the Republican nominee.
Adding to the intrigue of the election, African American Democrat Michael Jackson who lost to Cazayoux in the Democratic primary has said he will run again in the fall as an independent. Running as an independent will allow Jackson to bypass the primary and potentially split the vote into African-American Democratic, white Democratic, and Republican. Such a scenario might make the Democratic hold on the seat very short-lived, particularly if Republicans can find a candidate with broader, more mainstream appeal.
On election day, voters in African American neighborhoods were phoned by group identifying itself as “Friends of Michael Jackson” with messages asking them “to teach white Democrats a lesson by staying home and not casting ballots.” Jackson has said he was not involved with the ads, and this may well have been a dirty trick to suppress turnout.
Regardless, the threat of Jackson running as an independent (echoed by other African American Democrats in other districts within the state) highlights the precarious state of the Democratic Party and the racial divisions that confront the Party. Favorable national trends could make more victories like Cazayoux’s possible. Racial divisions within the Democratic Party could leave it torn asunder.
