Flip-Flops Hurting Obama’s Support Amongst Youth?
Michael O'Brien
Posted: 07.22.2008 / 8:25 PM EDT
Jonathan Chait of The New Republic points out some recent poll data suggesting that young voters’ enthusiasm for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has fallen off since its peak in May.
Chait was taking a smack at TNR colleague Noam Scheiber, who argued that National Review’s Rich Lowry and Ramesh Ponnuru are wrong in their recent piece arguing that hitting Obama on perceived “flip-flops” could be an effective strategy for the campaign of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Chait ‘raises’ some quotes from ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, who said that Obama’s youth support “has been dampened,” which the ABC newsman attributes to Obama’s alleged shifting positions. Chait also highlights a poll saying that Obama’s support amongst voters under age 30 is down to 46 percent from a high of 66 percent in May.
Though it is difficult to imagine McCain winning this block by a majority or even a plurality, much of that support was predicated upon the often hagiographic portrayal of Obama as a new, post-partisan politician (except not really a politician). Obama’s recent political positioning–whether they prove nuanced evolution in politics, or cynical manipulation of ideology–may jeopardize the image that made him the darling of many young voters this primary season.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
At first I was puzzled as to why a young person would be using the term “flip-flops”—a Rovian, Swiftboating term of art that unfortunately is slowly creeping its way into the American lexicon—in the headline of his blog, since the term is normally used by Republican or Conservative operatives during attempts to smear someone. And then I read your bio, Michael, and Zing! No further explanation necessary.
I’m not sure perceived shifting political sands are what’s turning people off of Obama, if, in fact, anything actually is.
What may be causing youth and everyone else to lose their enthusiasm is the sheer length of the campaign season, coupled with innumerable attempts by Obama opponents to raise questions about the man’s character and ability with all-out frontal assaults and less-obvious whisper campaigns. Many of those detractors utter the term “Flip-Flops” too.
What is perhaps more worthy of examination is the fact that John McCain’s campaign has been stuck in neutral from the outset. Pundits probably aren’t focusing on changes to McCain’s popularity because McCain never had much popularity to begin with. It’s hard to see someone switching gears when they were never moving in the first place. And by floating motionless in the doldrums, McCain stands very little risk of “flip-flopping.”
Personally, I’m going to grab my flip-flops and venture pool-side so I can be away from the din of pundits desperately grasping for an angle during the Dog Days of a political summer.