Open US Senate seats in 2014: eight that are up for grabs now

1.Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) of Georgia

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) of Georgia, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, announced that he will not seek a third term on Jan. 25, citing "frustration" with Washington gridlock. But the prospect of a costly, bruising primary fight with a tea party opponent, such as the one that toppled six-term Sen. Richard Lugar (R) of Indiana in 2012, could also have figured in his decision.

Tea party activists in Georgia and beyond were spoiling for a chance to knock out Senator Chambliss, who is best known for his efforts to work across the aisle with Democrats like Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia in the so-called Gang of Six, which tried to find middle ground on curbing deficits and debt. Only 38 percent of likely voters in the GOP primary backed Chambliss, compared with 43 percent who favored a more conservative unnamed candidate, according to a December poll, although in a hypothetical head-to-head race in which both candidates were named, Chambliss defeated all likely GOP rivals.

"Many people in the tea party movement here in Georgia felt Chambliss was tired and unwilling to fight the difficult battles to control government spending in Washington without increasing our nation’s tax burden," said Tea Party Express chairman Amy Kremer in a statement after Chambliss announced his decision not to run for reelection. Tea party activists have pledged to find a strong conservative voice to replace him.

On Feb. 6, Rep. Paul Broun (R) of Georgia, a member of the House Tea Party Caucus, announced his candidacy for the open Senate seat. Some GOP activists fear that a Broun candidacy could turn on toxic gaffes, along the lines that famously felled GOP Senate candidates such as Todd Akin of Missouri and Richard Mourdock of Indiana in 2012 or Nevada's Sharron Angle and Delaware's Christine O'Donnell in 2010. (There's now a mini-civil war within GOP ranks over whether national super "political-action committees," such as Karl Rove's new Conservative Victory Project, should help ensure that only electable conservative candidates make it through GOP primaries in 2014.)

Other potential GOP contenders include most of Georgia’s GOP congressional delegation, including US Reps. Tom Price, Lynn Westmoreland, Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey, and Tom Graves; along with former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel and 2012 presidential hopeful Herman Cain.

If the GOP nominee swings too far to the right, it opens up prospects for Democrats in Georgia, which is typically a strong red state. With Chambliss out of the race, Georgia is viewed as the No. 1 prospect for a Democratic takeover in the 2014 Senate campaign cycle.

Potential Democratic nominees include: US Rep. John Barrow, one of the last of the fiscally conservative “blue dog” Democrats in the House; Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed; former Gov. Roy Barnes; and state Sen. Jason Carter.

2.Sen. Tom Harkin (D) of Iowa

No Iowa Democrat has ever served longer in the US Senate than five-term Sen.Tom Harkin, an old-school, liberal progressive best known for his early and sustained support for the landmark Americans With Disability Act. His decision to not seek reelection, announced on Jan. 26, gives Iowans their first open Senate race since 1974.

To Republicans, it's also a more likely shot at a turnover, and, perhaps, an early test of whether national Republican groups, such as Mr. Rove's Conservative Victory Project, can dissuade conservatives deemed unelectable from getting into the race or can diminish their prospects.

Iowa is a classic swing state, with a Republican governor and a split congressional delegation: two Republicans and two Democrats in the House, a six-term Republican and a five-term Democrat in the Senate. The state backed George W. Bush, narrowly, in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

The high stakes of the 2014 Senate election have put pressure on potential candidates to come to a decision quickly. Four-term US Rep. Bruce Braley, the most likely Democratic candidate, announced on Feb. 7 that he will run for Senator Harkin's seat. Other Democrat prospects, not yet committed to run, include US Secretary of Agriculture and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, US Rep. Dave Loebsack, and former Gov. Chet Culver, the son of former US Sen. John Culver (D).

On the Republican side: Rep. Steve King of Iowa, a leading tea party activist, has not yet decided to run for the Senate, but he starts an early favorite in a GOP primary, although with little support among moderates. Some of his controversial statements on issues such as immigration reform are out of step with a post-2012 election strategy of outreach by some Republicans to Hispanic groups. He would lose in a head-to-head race with each of the four leading Democratic prospects, according to a recent survey by Public Policy Polling.

"We're all concerned about Steve King's Todd Akin problem," said Steven Law, co-founder of the Conservative Victory Project, in comments to The New York Times. On Feb. 7, Representative King responded in an e-mail to supporters: "Nobody can bully me out of running for the U.S. Senate, not even Karl Rove and his hefty war chest.”

Tea party groups call the new Rove super PAC a bid to trump conservative grass-roots opinion with a Washington establishment viewpoint that also loses elections. "It's not a war on the tea party," countered Jonathan Collegio, spokesman for another Rove-founded super PAC, American Crossroads, in an e-mail. "Republicans have lost four to seven Senate seats not because of ideas but because of the candidates expressing the ideas," he added. "We're out to find and pick the best candidate."

Other GOP prospects for the open seat in Iowa include US Rep. Tom Latham, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, and conservative social activist Bob Vander Plaats.

3.Sen. John Rockefeller (D) of West Virginia

Five-term Sen. John Rockefeller's decision to step down after 2014 gives Republicans a strong shot at winning one of the six seats they'll need to take back control of the Senate.

Until the death of West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, the longest-serving member of Congress of all time, an open seat in West Virginia hadn't existed for more than a generation. Together, Senators Rockefeller and Byrd held US Senate seats in Democratic hands for nearly 80 years, even as the state was trending increasingly to the right. West Virginia has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000.

Now, the leading Republican prospect is seven-term Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, who announced her intention to run in November. She won reelection in 2012 with 70 percent of the vote. But her voting record on federal spending is too liberal for some tea party Republicans, who may yet mount a primary challenge. Former Sen. Jim DeMint (R) of South Carolina said last year that his Senate Conservatives Fund would not be backing her candidacy.

The antitax Club for Growth has also criticized Representative Capito's voting record in support of bailouts and big government, noting that Republican establishment candidates, too, can lose Senate races expected to go to the GOP. In 2012, US Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) of Montana, Rep. Rick Berg (R) of North Dakota, and former Rep. Heather Wilson (R) of New Mexico lost Senate races they had been favored to win.

“Everybody knows why Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock lost," says Barney Keller, spokesman for the Club for Growth. "What nobody is asking is why Denny Rehberg or Rick Berg lost in states where [Mitt] Romney won by double digits."

Meanwhile, Democrats are expected to recruit a candidate from among past and present state officials, including Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, and Carte Goodwin, chief of staff to then-Gov. Joe Manchin (D) who was appointed to fill out Byrd's term after his death in June 2010. Mr. Manchin won the Senate seat in a special election in November 2010.

4.Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) of New Jersey

Five-term Senator Lautenberg, the last of the World War II veterans in the US Senate, died on June 3, leaving a vacancy that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, is allowed to fill. One day later, Governor Christie called for a special election in October 2013, saying voters themselves need to have "a voice and a choice."

That means that whoever wins the October Senate election will have to run again in 2014, with barely a year under his or her belt in Washington. Technically, the New Jersey Senate seat will not be "open," but the incumbent will be very green.

Until the election, Jeffrey Chiesa, most recently the state's attorney general, will fill the Senate seat, Christie announced June 6. Mr. Chiesa, a Republican, will not run for the seat.

It's been a long time, since 1972, to be exact, since New Jersey voters elected a Republican to the Senate. Lautenberg himself had held the seat since 1983, defeating US Rep. Millicent Fenwick (R) – the model for the liberal patrician cartoon character Lacey Davenport in "Doonesbury" – the previous November. Lautenberg, a pioneer in the business of computerized payrolls, spent $4 million of his own money on a campaign that turned on messaging that Ms. Fenwick, at age 72, was too old for the job. 

Lautenberg, who was 89, had already decided in February not to run again, so his death and the special election simply accelerate the campaign pace for those already considering a bid.

Newark Mayor Corey Booker, a friend of Christie and a Democrat, announced his plans in December 2012 to vie for the seat – a move that Lautenberg did not appreciate and that some senior New Jersey Democrats reportedly took as jumping the gun. Other Democrats considering a Senate run include US Rep. Frank Pallone, a longtime ally of Lautenberg, and state Senate President Stephen Sweeney.

On the Republican side, prospects include state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the GOP’s 2006 Senate nominee; Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno; and Joe Kyrillos, a Christie ally who was the Republican Senate nominee in 2012.

The primary will be Aug. 13. The special election will be Oct. 16. Christie himself faces voters in November 2013.

Political analysts are ranking this race, even as an open seat, solidly in the Democratic column.

"Though Gov. Chris Christie (R) looks to be well-positioned in 2013, the Garden State has proven to be very difficult terrain for Republicans in Senate and presidential races, and it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for this open Senate seat to fall into GOP hands," writes Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report.

5.Sen. Mike Johanns (R) of Nebraska

The decision of freshman Sen. Mike Johanns to retire at the end of his first term took Senate colleagues by surprise. But with Nebraska solidly in Republican hands both at the state and congressional level, his departure isn't likely to revise the odds for a GOP takeover of the Senate in 2014.

A former Democrat (until 1988) and popular former governor, Senator Johanns also served as secretary of Agriculture in the George W. Bush administration. In the Senate, he struck a conservative line on issues such as global warming and environmental regulation, including a recent bill to require more transparency of the Environmental Protection Agency, which he dubbed "short-sighted and arrogant." But he also worked across the aisle on issues such as deficit reduction as a member of the bipartisan "Gang of Eight." He is one of only two Republicans to publicly back former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel's nomination as secretary of Defense.

"We want a quieter time with our focus on each other, our family and our faith," he said in a joint letter with his wife, Stephanie, to constituents. "We are also confident that there will be many more opportunities to serve our state and our nation."

His exit could open the door for for Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman (R) to get into the race. He became governor after Johanns joined the Bush administration in 2005 and was easily reelected in 2006 and '10. Despite being term-limited, Governor Heineman declined a Senate run in 2012.

Democrats, who currently hold no major statewide office, have no obvious frontrunner. When Sen. Ben Nelson (D) of Nebraska announced his retirement in 2012, Democrats persuaded former Sen. Bob Kerrey, also a popular former governor, to return to Nebraska and get into the race. He lost to two-term state Sen. Deb Fisher by 16 percentage points.

6.Sen. Carl Levin (D) of Michigan

In a surprise move, six-term Sen. Carl Levin (D) of Michigan, the respected and famously hard-working chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, announced on March 7, 2013, that he will not be seeking reelection in 2014. After 34 years in the Senate, he says, he wants to spend his last two years in office focused on "fighting for the things I believe in," including reviving manufacturing, ending the war in Afghanistan, and adequately funding education, infrastructure, and veterans' care, without the distraction of a campaign.

As chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, he led probes of the Wall Street financial crisis, the Enron debacle, the credit card industry, and offshore tax havens.

"No one has worked harder to bring manufacturing jobs back to our shores, close unfair tax loopholes, and ensure that everyone plays by the same set of rules," said President Obama, in a statement after Senator Levin's announcement.

His decision to pass on a reelection bid gives Republicans an unexpected pick-up opportunity in a state Democrats had been expected to win. Potential GOP prospects include Scott Romney, the brother of Mitt Romney, who led the GOP field in a March survey by Harper Polling; Reps. Mike Rogers, Justin Amash, Dave Camp, and Mike Rogers; and former two-term Michigan secretary of state Terry Land.

Democrats on short lists for the seat include Reps. Gary Peters and Dan Kildee, and former Rep. Mark Schauer. Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm said March 22, 2013, she would not seek the seat. 

Senate Democrats say they expect to hold the state. "We fully expect to keep Michigan blue in November 2014," said Sen. Michael Bennet (D) of Colorado, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

So far, many analysts agree. "Michigan's fundamentals still pose major problems for Republicans," says Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report. "Democrats have won the past six presidential elections and 11 of the past 12 Senate elections."

In the 2012 presidential contest, GOP candidate Mitt Romney, who once called Michigan home, lost the state by nearly 9.5 percentage points to Mr. Obama.

7.Sen. Tim Johnson (D) of South Dakota

Facing a tough race in 2014, three-term Sen. Tim Johnson (D) of South Dakota announced his decision to retire at the end of 2014, giving Republicans another shot at one of six seats they need to take back control of the Senate.

"You have supported me in multiple elections, and, more importantly, your patience and prayers enabled me to recover from a life -threatening brain injury," said Senator Johnson, in a statement. "I will be 68 years-old at the end of this term and it is time for me to say good-bye," he added, pledging to use the balance of his term to "find a bipartisan solution" to the nation's challenges. 

South Dakota, with a largely conservative electorate, was a top target for Republicans well before Senator Johnson made his decision public on March 26. Former Gov. Mike Rounds, a popular Republican, announced his intention to run for the seat in December. But he could face a tough race in a GOP primary that could also include two-term US Rep. Kristi Noem (R) of South Dakota, who has strong backing from national conservative groups.

A rising star in the House Republican caucus, Representative Noem is one of two lawmakers tapped by House GOP leaders to serve as liaison between leadership and the Tea Party-infused House freshman class of 2011. (The other, Rep. Tim Scott (R) of South Carolina, was appointed in December to fill the US Senate seat of retiring Sen. Jim DeMint (R) of South Carolina, until a special election, also in 2014.)

On the Democratic side, potential contenders include former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who was defeated by Noem in 2010, and US Attorney Brendan Johnson, who is Johnson's son.    

GOP officials say they are confident in a win, regardless of who emerges as the Democratic candidate.

"South Dakota voters rejected the progressive agenda by nearly 20 points in 2012 and it's a prime pick up opportunity for Republicans regardless of whose name ends up on the ballot after what's shaping up to be a contentious Democratic primary," said Sen. Jerry Moran (R) of Kansas, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a statement.

However, a March poll by Public Policy Polling finds that former Representative Herseth Sandlin "remains a popular figure in the state and may actually increase Democrats' chances at keeping the race competitive."

8.Sen. Max Baucus (D) of Montana

Famously independent, six-term Sen. Mac Baucus (D) of Montana has survived and even thrived in an age of intense partisan gridlock, playing key negotiating roles on issues ranging from taxes and trade policy to Medicare, health-care reform, and farm bills.

As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Senator Baucus and Sen. Charles Grassley (R) of Iowa established one of the strongest working relationships on Capitol Hill, which survived several changes of party control in the Senate.

Baucus riled members of his own party by helping to navigate President George W. Bush's 2001 tax cuts through the Senate, then siding with Republicans on  a controversial Medicare prescription drug benefit. More recently, his votes to oppose expanding background checks for gun sales drew fire from the party's left wing. Liberal critics dub him, Senator K Street, for what they say is his consistent support for corporate interests.

Still, his decision to retire came as a surprise to colleagues on Capitol Hill. He had amassed a $5 million campaign war chest and had, as yet, no announced opponent. Although targeted by Republicans for ouster, he won his last reelection bid with 73 percent of the vote.

But with Montana's record of voting Republican in each of the last five presidential races – Obama lost Montana by 13 points in 2012 – Baucus still faced a potentially tough race, likely to include getting hammered over his role in the health-care reform just as some of the costs of that program are surfacing.

With Baucus out of the race, political handicappers are ranking the contest a tossup. Democrats have a potentially strong contender in former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who polls high in the state and is reportedly also considering a presidential run in 2016. Two years in the Senate could help that bid, say some analysts, or hinder it, by destroying the image of an "outsider."

On the Republican side, former US Rep. Denny Rehberg, who battled Baucus to within 20,000 votes in his1996 Senate race, is a likely prospect. Montana also has a strong libertarian streak. Libertarian candidate Dan Cox won 6.5 percent of the vote in 2012 and could help tip a close race to Democrats.

"Even though we don’t know who is running or whether the parties will have competitive primaries, the fundamentals of the state demand that the first rating of the open seat be Pure Toss-Up," says Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report.