Marco Rubio for president? 14 Republicans who might run next time (+video)

1.Marco Rubio

Young and charismatic, Marco Rubio burst onto the national scene in 2010 when he defeated then-Republican Gov. Charlie Crist to become the junior senator from Florida. Dubbed by some the GOP’s Barack Obama, Senator Rubio has managed his image carefully, delivering serious policy addresses and initially playing down any designs on higher office.

In another echo of Obama, he delivered perhaps the best-received speech of the 2012 Republican National Convention. Now that the campaign is over, Rubio can be less coy. Just 12 days after the election, he was in Iowa – home of the first nominating contest – speaking at a fundraiser for the governor. At the Jack Kemp Foundation award dinner in Washington on Dec. 4, 2012, he adopted an inclusive tone.

“Some say that our problem is that the American people have changed, that too many people want things from government,” Rubio said. “I am still convinced that the overwhelming majority of our people just want what my parents had – a chance.”

Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants, and could help the GOP recover from Mr. Romney’s poor showing among Latinos (though not all Latinos feel warmly toward Cuban-Americans, who have special immigration status). Still, pride among Latinos that one of their own could become president might override reservations. Rubio has been a leader in the Senate on immigration reform, and Latinos have welcomed his calls for compassion.

As a Floridian, he would be positioned to win his state’s crucial early primary. And if he won the nomination, he would have an excellent shot at winning the nation’s biggest battleground state.

A Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey of Republicans released Jan. 10, 2013, puts Rubio at the top for the 2016 nomination, with 21 percent – largely because of his strength with the party’s most conservative wing. That’s pretty low for No. 1, and portends a wide-open nomination race. His biggest weakness – little executive experience – may be hard to overcome. But if you’re Rubio, being at the top of a poll is still a nice place to be.

2.Paul Ryan

Paul Ryan didn’t win the vice presidency, but no matter: Mitt Romney’s selection of the congressman from Wisconsin for the 2012 ticket has rocketed him into contention for 2016. Within Republican circles, Congressman Ryan – chairman of the House Budget Committee – had long been seen as a rising young star, best known for his mastery of budgetary and fiscal matters. Now he has a national profile upon which to build.

Ryan’s conservative credentials reassured Republicans that the ideologically suspect Mr. Romney was serious about his swing away from moderation. But it’s not clear that Ryan did much else for Romney in the campaign – or that he even could have. Voters vote for the top of the ticket, not the running mate. So for Ryan, the 2012 loss probably has no downside.

On the plus side for Ryan is his elevated status among the party faithful, his better-than-expected stump performance in 2012 – he didn’t lapse much into wonky budget talk – and his sunny youthfulness. By 2016, being a member of Generation X won’t be a negative: He will be about the same age Barack Obama and Bill Clinton were when they were elected president. (The same holds true for Rubio.)

One question is whether Ryan can make the leap directly from the House to the presidency. Plenty of sitting House members have run for president, but only one has succeeded (James Garfield). If he plans to run, he will have to work to maintain his national profile while playing a key role in the House.

His Jan. 1 vote for the “fiscal cliff” legislation that included a tax hike on the wealthy raised eyebrows among conservatives, but Ryan defended his position as prudent. If the bill had failed, everyone’s taxes would have gone up.

In contrast, Rubio voted against the bill. So while he was seen as sticking to his conservative principles (albeit with the knowledge the bill would pass anyway), Ryan emerged a pragmatist. That could hurt his chances with the conservative base, but 2016 is a long way away and he’ll have plenty more opportunities to reinforce his conservative bona fides.

In the PPP poll of Republicans on the 2016 nomination, Ryan came in second with 16 percent.

3.Chris Christie

The charismatic, blunt-talking governor of New Jersey has only grown in national stature since hurricane Sandy devastated his state’s coast in October 2012. In early January, Congress’s foot-dragging in passing legislation to pay for disaster relief sparked Governor Christie’s ire and put him back in the spotlight. The question is how his big profile – both literally and figuratively – affects his chances if he runs for president in 2016.

To some Republicans, he’s a perfect potential nominee. As governor of a blue state, he has shown he can work across the aisle, earning plenty of Democratic fans. To others, his embrace of President Obama during the Sandy crisis a week before the 2012 presidential election showed he’s politically suspect. In early January, his tirade against House Speaker John Boehner and the Republican majority for punting on Sandy relief money was decried by some conservatives as over the top.

The PPP poll has him tied for fourth with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for GOP nominee, at 14 percent, but he would do best against Hillary Rodham Clinton, the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Christie trails Mrs. Clinton by just 2 points, 42 percent to 44 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.

At the start of the 2012 presidential cycle, Christie faced loud calls to jump into the ring, but he resisted, saying he wasn’t ready. Now he is running for reelection as governor this November. It is assumed he will win and then pivot toward a presidential campaign.

“You’re d*** right I’d be more ready,” Christie recently told the Newark Star-Ledger about running for president in 2016 versus how he felt about 2012.

He also says it’s “ridiculous” to suggest he may be too heavy to run for president.

“I’ve done this job pretty well,” Christie told Barbara Walters in December 2012. “I think people watched me for the last number of weeks during hurricane Sandy doing 18-hour days and getting back up the next day and still being just as effective in the job, so I don’t think that will be a problem.”

4.Jeb Bush

In a way, Jeb Bush is the Hillary Rodham Clinton of the Republican Party: If he decides to run for president, he could discourage others from getting in – including fellow Floridian, Marco Rubio.

As a successful two-term governor of the Sunshine State, Mr. Bush is a respected conservative with an intellectual streak and has the deep political and fundraising connections that come from being a Bush. But his family name cuts two ways. While his father’s presidency is now remembered with fondness, his brother’s is not. And it may be that the nation still won’t be ready to consider another Bush presidential campaign by 2016.

Aides and friends of Jeb Bush say he is “actively weighing” a run, according to The Wall Street Journal. "Governor Bush has made a decision to make a decision at some point about running for president," Sally Bradshaw, a longtime Bush adviser told the Journal.

Some of Bush’s policy positions could prove challenging among conservative primary voters, even if they are assets in the general. Chief among them is his support for comprehensive immigration reform; he is publishing a book on immigration this spring. His immigration stance, plus his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican-born wife, gives him entré into the Latino community, the large and fast-growing voting bloc that went overwhelmingly for Obama in November 2012. More appealing to conservatives may be Bush’s advocacy, through his education think tank, for school choice and tougher testing standards.  

As a governor, Bush may be best remembered for his effective emergency management during the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005. A negative memory that could come back if Bush runs is the march on Tallahassee by tens of thousands of protesters in 2000, sparked by his “One Florida” initiative to do away with affirmative action in admissions to state universities.

The January PPP poll of Republicans has Bush tied for fourth, at 14 percent, with Chris Christie among GOP prospects for 2016. Ultimately, there’s a strong possibility Bush won’t run, because of his family. One of his sons, George P. Bush, is launching his own political career in Texas, but other immediate family members may be less enamored of the intense scrutiny that comes with a national political run.

5.Scott Walker

Ever since first-term Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker survived a recall election in June 2012, Republicans have treated him like a rock star – and have talked up his national potential. Governor Walker himself insists he does not have designs on 2016 and is focused on running his state. But that’s a typical comment for a governor who is running for reelection before the next presidential race starts.

Walker ignited a firestorm in early 2011 – including massive protests at the state Capitol – when he proposed limits on most collective bargaining rights for unionized public workers. The Republican-run legislature passed the bill, fueling the drive for the recall vote. But Walker won, 53 percent to 46 percent, becoming the first US governor to survive a recall.

Walker is now gearing up for his 2014 reelection race, and, if successful, he can then contemplate higher office. In a recent interview with the Wisconsin State Journal, Walker promised that the next two years will be calmer than his first two in office and pledged to focus on the state budget and job creation. He also said he would urge Republican state legislators not to bring up divisive legislation, such as ending same-day voter registration, limiting immigration, and making Wisconsin a “right-to-work” state. Such pragmatism may not play well with party conservatives, but could help put him in the mainstream nationally.

One possible hitch in any presidential plan would be if fellow Wisconsinite Paul Ryan decides to run. The two are good friends and political allies.

6.Bobby Jindal

One of the “boy wonders” of the Republican Party, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is finally getting to an age (early 40s) where he can credibly ponder a presidential run. Now in his second term as governor, he is due to leave office early in 2016, perfect timing if he does decide to run.

So far, Governor Jindal is playing it coy. In a Politico interview in November 2012, he said he has “the best job in the world” and is focused on that and on being chairman of the Republican Governors Association. But the RGA job, in which he will help Republicans elect governors in other states, is also a perfect platform from which to prepare for a presidential campaign, as he travels the country, fundraising and building his Rolodex.

Since completing a Rhodes scholarship after college, Jindal has been in public service or running for office nearly nonstop: In addition to governor, he has been a member of Congress, assistant secretary in the US Department of Health and Human Services, president of Louisiana’s state university system, and secretary of the state Department of Health and Hospitals.

The son of Indian immigrants, Jindal would add diversity to a GOP field that may also include the Cuban-American Marco Rubio. But Jindal is mindful of not chopping up the American electorate into ethnic or economic segments, saying he prefers to reach out to all Americans.

Perhaps the biggest smudge on Jindal’s political résumé is his awkward appearance on national television in 2009, when he delivered the Republican reply to President Obama’s speech to a joint session of Congress. Time has softened the memory, but doubts linger over whether he can go up against some of the party’s more charismatic figures.

7.Rick Santorum

Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania was the final challenger to Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries (except for libertarian niche candidate, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas). And given that GOP runners-up often try again, chances are strong that Mr. Santorum will be back in 2016. In post-election interviews, he has said as much.

“I’m open to seeing what God’s path is for me,” Santorum told the Christian Broadcasting Network in December 2012.

In 2012, Santorum was the final non-Mitt Romney alternative for Republicans who weren’t sure that Romney was a true-blue conservative – especially evangelical Christians who liked Santorum’s conservative Catholic faith and emphasis on social issues. Still, it may be hard for Santorum to grow his base of support in a second presidential run. But running again also may have little downside for Santorum, as it gets him back in the news and on the debate stage, thus refreshing his marketability and public image.

8.Rand Paul

The junior senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul is the heir to his father’s political franchise. And now that Ron Paul, former congressman from Texas and three-time presidential candidate, has retired from politics, all eyes are on his son. Over the years, the senior Paul built a following around his libertarian views, and the tea-party-oriented Senator Paul is carrying on in the same general vein, though he is more inclined to fall in line with party leaders than was his father. Still, he opposes foreign aid and entanglements, which takes him out of the Republican mainstream.

In a radio interview in early January 2013, the senator hinted he might run in 2016.

"We are going to have to have somebody a little bit different than we've had in the past … someone who can appeal to people in New England and on the West Coast. Someone who has a little more of a libertarian-Republican approach, I think, would have a better chance," Paul said on talk radio's "The Andrea Tantaros Show with Jason Mattera."

Five percent of Republicans chose Paul in the PPP poll.

9.Mike Huckabee

The former governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate seems perfectly content to be a well-compensated talk-show host on Fox News and party celebrity. Mr. Huckabee opted out of the 2012 race, noting he’s a weak fundraiser and not prepared to risk poverty with another run. But for 2016, two PPP polls show him in the running for the Republican nomination, which might give him pause.

The first, taken in November 2012, showed Huckabee as the top pick among Iowa Republicans – those who would presumably take part in the Iowa caucuses in January 2016, the first nominating contest. Granted, he got only 15 percent, signaling that the race is wide open. But it’s a base to build upon, in the state that launched the Huckabee phenomenon in 2008. A favorite of Iowa’s evangelical community, Huckabee won that year’s caucuses in an upset.

Nationally, Huckabee is also in the mix for 2016. The January 2013 PPP poll showed 15 percent of Republicans favor Huckabee, third among those mentioned.  

10.Bob McDonnell

Virginia governors are limited to one term, so at the end of 2013 Gov. Bob McDonnell will be out of work and free to explore 2016. He hasn’t openly dropped hints about running, but he is ambitious – he chaired the Republican Governors Association – and is regularly mentioned as a presidential prospect.

In his State of the Commonwealth speech Jan. 9, 2013, Governor McDonnell seemed to launch the argument for a possible candidacy.

“In Washington, we see debt, taxes, delays, blame, and dysfunction,” McDonnell said. “Here in Virginia we see results, solutions, job growth, surpluses, and cooperation. What a difference 100 miles makes!”

Of course, part of Virginia’s economic strength – including low unemployment – springs from federal spending and the state’s proximity to the capital. So McDonnell can diss Washington (and its purse strings) only so much. But he also has plenty of purchase in conservative circles over social issues.  

Part of McDonnell’s appeal for 2016 may be his ability to straddle both the mainstream and conservative worlds. When he first took over as governor, he supported a requirement that a woman have a transvaginal ultrasound before an abortion. Faced with an uproar, he switched to support for a less invasive abdominal ultrasound.

Virginia’s status as one of the biggest battleground states could also help McDonnell. But his low-key persona could make it hard for him to stand out in what is expected to be a crowded GOP field.

11.John Thune

When the junior senator from South Dakota opted out of a 2012 run, saying the “timing didn’t feel right,” he left the door open to 2016. The two-term Senator Thune brings to the table all-American good looks; a small-town, conservative sensibility; and a reputation as a consensus-builder. He is a leader in the Senate on energy policy and a big supporter of gun rights.

As a South Dakotan, he would have good name ID in neighboring Iowa, home of the first nominating contest. At the start of the 2012 cycle, he was encouraged to run by Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina. So one has to wonder how much fire in the belly he has for a presidential race, given his decision to pass when the GOP field was relatively weak and President Obama looked vulnerable.

Thune is also seen as part of the Republican establishment in the Senate, and depending on the mood of the GOP electorate in 2016, that could matter.

12.Kelly Ayotte

Kelly Ayotte, the junior senator from New Hampshire, was widely mentioned as a possible running mate for Mitt Romney in 2012, and reportedly has her eye on a presidential run of her own in 2016.

At the end of 2012, Senator Ayotte got national attention for her vocal opposition to the possible nomination of UN Ambassador Susan Rice for secretary of State, a move that burnished her credentials with conservatives. Now that Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) of Connecticut has retired, she has slid into his seat as one of the “three amigos” aside Sens. John McCain (R) of Arizona and Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina.

In addition to her profile on national security, Ayotte brings to the table a legal background as former attorney general of New Hampshire. In the 2005 case Ayotte v. Planned Parenthood of Northern New England, she argued before the US Supreme Court in favor of a law requiring parental notification before a minor’s abortion. She lost but scored points among social conservatives.  

For a party eager to attract female support, Ayotte has obvious appeal – especially if soon-to-be-ex-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for the Democratic nomination. Since Democrats produced the first black president, Republicans may be all the more determined to produce the first woman president.

If Ayotte runs, she would be well-positioned to win New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary. Yet a victory could be discounted, as she would be considered a hometown favorite. And a loss would be embarrassing.

13.Susana Martinez

Susana Martinez was elected governor of New Mexico in 2010, making her the first female Hispanic governor in US history. Mitt Romney reportedly considered her for running mate in 2012, but she took her name out of consideration for family reasons. New Mexico is a battleground state, and having a New Mexican at the top of the ticket could help the GOP throughout the West.

In December 2012, she told Fox News she had “no thoughts” on running for president in 2016, and was focused on running for reelection as governor and fulfilling “the promises that I made to New Mexicans.”

But her service on the executive committee of the Republican Governors Association shows that she has at least one eye on national politics. Press reports have indicated she’s open to a 2016 presidential run, and because she is Hispanic, the pressure is likely to ramp up fast for her to look beyond the Land of Enchantment.  

At the 2012 Republican National Convention, Martinez delivered one of the most memorable speeches, recounting her decision in 1995 to switch from Democrat to Republican. As a Mexican-American, she can appeal personally to the largest segment of the nation’s fast-growing Latino community – a voting bloc that supported President Obama by a wide margin.

Martinez also brings a legal background to the table, having served for many years as a district attorney.

14.Rick Perry

In Texas, four-term Gov. Rick Perry – the longest-serving chief executive in state history – seems a near-permanent fixture. But on the national stage, not so much. During his 2012 presidential campaign, Governor Perry turned in one of the all-time most embarrassing debate performances when he could not remember which three federal agencies he would shut down. His poll ratings plummeted; he dropped out of the race soon after the primaries began.

But he is on this list because he has said he might run again. Some Perry supporters are promoting the idea and suggest his problems from last time are fixable. In 2011, they point out, he was on medication after back surgery (which may have contributed to a particularly loopy campaign appearance), and he entered the race late. If he were to run again, he would presumably get in early and be off pain meds.

Still, it’s hard to see a national Perry comeback, especially given the depth and breadth of the potential GOP field. Either way, we’ll know soon enough if he’s going to try: He says he’ll reveal his plans by July 2013.