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Peace in Vietnam: Glow of hope mingles with apprehension

Timetable for implementation

By Takashi Oka | Staff correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

Paris

The glow of an approaching peace in Vietnam mingles with apprehension about its implications as Henry Kissinger flew back to Washington, apparently with the completed text or an agreement “on ending the war and restoring peace in Vietnam.”

At the time of writing, President Nixon was scheduled to go on television Tuesday night and was expected to announce the initialing of the agreement and give the timetable for the next few days. For the past several days the principal actors in the negotiation drama have had the air of moving in accordance with a preordained scenario, with the news-hungry public being afforded only tantalizing peeps of a process which no longer contains any surprises for its participants.

The scenario itself, as far as can be ascertained so far, calls for:
1. The initialing of the agreement. In principle this can be done by Messrs. Kissinger and Tho, and rumors are current that it may have been done already.
2. The signing of the agreement. This will be a public occasion, hosted by the French Government, and taking place probably in the old Hotel Majestic, now the official French International Conference Center.

Four should sign

Four ministers should sign: Secretary of State William P. Rogers for the United States; Foreign Minister Nguyen Duy Trinh for the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam); Foreign Minister Tran Van Lam of the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam); and Foreign-Minister Madame Thi Binh of the Provisional Revolutionary Government of the Republic of South Vietnam (the National Liberation Front or Viet Cong).

According to some rumors, the signing ceremony will take place in Paris Saturday. At the latest, the signature is expected to be completed by Feb. 3, the day of rebirth and renewal known to all Vietnamese, North and South, as Tet or the lunar new year.

Twenty-four hours after the signature, a cease-fire “in place” will come into effect throughout South Vietnam. Teams of international military observers from four countries – Canada, Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary – will arrive in South Vietnam to see the cease-fire is observed.

The observers will number 2,500 according to one report, 3,000 according to another. In either case they will be substantially more numerous than the 250 originally proposed by the Communists and will have their own logistics.

Timing problematical

They may not necessarily be in place by the time the cease-fire begins. This could create a brief period of confusion, last minute land-snatching, and disputes about violations by both parties.

3. The United States will withdraw all its troops and those of its allies (almost exclusively Korean, now that the Australians and the Thais have withdrawn), from South Vietnam within 60 days of the signing of the agreement. Parallel with this process, Hanoi and Viet Cong will release American military and civilian prisoners of war.

4. As soon as the agreement is signed, Saigon, which so far has been talking to Hanoi through the Americans and in turn Hanoi, will be able to communicate with Hanoi directly through a quadripartite military commission, and with the Viet Cong directly through both a bipartite military commission and through various channels for political and other purposes.

5. While these talks go on, both Saigon and the Viet Cong will observe the cease-fire. The armies of the two sides will be regrouped in “zones of stationing” and the International Control Commission’s observers mentioned above will report on any violations, probably to a multinational conference on Vietnam which is to be organized within 30 days of the signing of the peace agreement.

Major conference sought

The conference will bring together Moscow, Peking, and probably London and Paris as well as Washington and the five parties involved in the Indo-China fighting – North and South Vietnam, plus the Viet Cong, Laos, and Cambodia. The conference is said to be Mr. Kissinger’s own pet idea, a means of getting the great powers to guarantee an Indo-China settlement.

6. Cease-fires in Laos and Cambodia will also come into effect, but not necessarily at the same time as the Vietnam cease-fire.

7. The talks between Saigon and the Viet Cong could be held somewhere inside Vietnam, or in Paris. Many important matters, from the release of political and other prisoners, to the organization of elections, must be discussed.

The central task

All the apprehensions that politically aware Vietnamese feel concern the nature of the regime that is to emerge from these elections.

From President Thieu’s viewpoint, a solidification of his present administration is the desired result; from the Viet Cong viewpoint, a “democratic,” “neutralist,” and “independent” government that will realize the unification with Hanoi in a peaceful step-by-step process.

The way in which both sides observe the cease-fire and the way in which they start to conduct their talks should indicate whether genuine peace is coming to South Vietnam or merely a disguised war.