Russia-Georgia tensions escalate over breakaway republic

Bloomberg says that Russia's foreign ministry recently accused its neighbor of girding for war and says Georgia has massed over 1,500 troops in the Kodori Gorge area of Abkhazia. A spokesman for Georgia's interior ministry said that 500 police officers have been mobilized, but no military personnel. Russia has as many as 3,000 peacekeepers in Abkhazia under a Commonwealth of Independent States mandate, up from around 2,000 previously.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the latest tensions come as Russia's new president Dmitry Medvedev prepares to take office Wednesday, replacing Vladimir Putin, who moves to become prime minister. Mr. Putin will continue to wield substantial power, both as prime minister and as chairman of the ruling United Russia party in parliament. However, Mr. Medvedev, who won a landslide election victory in March, will assume primary responsibility for Russia's foreign policy.

Moscow is preparing to stage a major military parade Friday featuring military hardware rarely seen in the post-Soviet era, says Agence France-Presse. Last week's May Day parade also evoked memories of cold war displays of weaponry, troops, and equipment. Mr. Putin denied that Friday's parade, part of inauguration celebrations for his successor, was saber-rattling intended to intimidate Russia's neighbors.

The US has voiced strong support for Georgia's territorial claims and expressed its concern over Russia's troop buildup in the region, reported Agence France-Presse. But the US preoccupation with the race for the White House is likely to blunt any coordinated response to further Russian provocations, argues Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum, who warns that opaque Russian politics make it difficult to judge Moscow's game plan. The repeated downing of Georgian spy planes and Russian warnings of a Georgian invasion may a deliberate attempt to create a causus belli against a pro-Western neighbor.

Writing in an opinion piece in the Moscow Times, Alexander Golts says that both Georgia and Russia have much to lose in a potential military clash and argues that their actions are signals aimed at the US and NATO. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is seeking NATO membership after failing to restore control over the breakaway territories and wants to portray Moscow as a menacing presence in the region, while Russia wants to flex its muscles in the Caucasus without becoming embroiled in war.

Previous

1 | 2