Terrorism & Security
A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Iraqi security forces inspect bombs at the scene of a car bomb attack outside the northern city of Mosul, 225 miles northwest of Baghdad, Iraq, Monday. A car bomb killed several people outside the northern city of Mosul in the latest in a series of attacks to target the country's Shiites since the US withdrawal. (AP)
Northern Iraq bomb follows a deadly Iraqi weekend
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
A bomb in northern Iraq killed at least eight people on Monday morning, the latest in a string of sectarian-tinged attacks there since the last US troops withdrew from the country in December.
The blast struck a housing development for displaced Iraqis outside of the ethnically- and religiously-mixed city of Mosul. More than 140 people have died in attacks across Iraq since the last US forces left Iraq on Dec. 18, raising concerns that Iraq may be facing a sectarian conflict as Sunni insurgents challenge the Shiite-dominated government.
“Ordinary Iraqis say the violence is largely sectarian, with the once-dominant Sunni Muslims believing Shiites are responsible, and the majority Shiites saying it is the work of Sunni insurgents,” writes CNN’s Mohammed Tawfeeq. “Each group believes it is being targeted by the other.”
Monday’s attack targeted displaced members of the Shabak minority group, reports Al Jazeera. The group is of Kurdish origins and follows a mix of Shiite Islam and local beliefs. The group has also expressed an interest in becoming part of an independent Kurdistan. The Shabak community faced persecution during the rule of Saddam Hussein and was subject to numerous attacks after the US-led invasion.
Although Mosul has seen a drop in violence, it is still believed to be the city where Al Qaeda in Iraq has the strongest foothold, reports Agence France-Presse.
Prior to Monday’s bombing, Iraq saw much bloodshed over the weekend with attacks on both Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday, insurgents launched a coordinated attack against a jail in Ramadi, west of Baghdad in an attempt to free terror suspects. The battle left at least 18 people dead, including the attackers, reports The Wall Street Journal. On Saturday, more than 50 Shiite pilgrims were killed in the southern city of Basra.
“The government must be careful in the coming days because the political problems are being reflected on the ground,” said Sadoon Abed, a high-ranking member of the Ramadi provincial council in a New York Times article. “Al Qaeda wants to return to show that they still have the power to carry out such attacks. We fear the return of the sectarian war.”
The political situation has been particularly tense since Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s government ordered the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and accused him of running death squads, reports the Associated Press. The move reignited sectarian tensions and has thrown the central government into deep turmoil. There are mounting concerns that the country could be headed toward the type of sectarian violence that peaked in 2006 and 2007, a civil war that left tens of thousands of civilians dead.
“All these attacks happened because of the political problems in the country and the corruption that spread inside the body of the security agencies and the judicial systems,” said Hammed al-Hies, a leading sheik in Western Iraq who told the Washington Post he blamed attacks such as those in recent days on Iraq’s larger political problems.
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Arab troops to Syria? Qatar makes a bold proposal.
Qatar’s leader has said Arab troops should be sent to Syria to stop the regime’s bloody attacks on dissidents that have killed thousands of people.
His comments, made to CBS “60 Minutes” for a segment that will air today, are the first time an Arab leader has suggested military intervention in Syria to stop the government’s brutal 10-month campaign to crush an anti-regime uprising.
His comments come as Syria has continued killing protesters despite the presence of Arab League monitors sent nearly three weeks ago as part of a League plan to end the violence. The UN estimates that at least 5,000 people have been killed since March, when Syria began its attempts to crush an uprising against the regime of President Bashar Al Assad. The UN estimates that 400 people have been killed in the last three weeks, reports the Associated Press.
In a video posted on the CBS website, CBS’s Bob Simon asked Qatar’s leader Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani if he would be in favor of Arab nations intervening in Syria. “I think for such a situation to stop the killing, some troops should go to stop the killing,” said the emir.
Arab and non-Arab leaders have so far shunned suggestions of military intervention in Syria, which is allied with Iran and borders Israel. Some fear the conflict could ignite a larger sectarian crisis. Inside Syria, the conflict has become increasingly militarized.
The head of the Arab League, Nabil Al Arabi, warned Friday that Syria is slipping dangerously closer to civil war, according to the Associated Press. Army defectors have attacked security forces, and some opposition members have taken up arms as well.
Agence France-Presse reports that Amr Moussa, former head of the Arab League and now a presidential candidate in Egypt, said Sunday the Arab League should study the Qatari leader’s proposal. “This is a very important proposal,” he said on the sidelines of a conference in Beirut.
But an Arab League source in Cairo told Reuters that the League has not received an official request to send troops to Syria. "There is no official suggestion to send Arab troops to Syria at the current time.... There has been no Arab or a non-Arab agreement on a military intervention in Syria for the time being," said the official, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, the head of the UN, speaking Sunday at a conference in Beirut, demanded that Mr. Assad stop using violence against Syrians. “Stop the violence. Stop killing your people. The path of repression is a dead end,” said Ban Ki-moon.
His pleas came as Syria’s state news agency announced that Assad has issued a general amnesty for “crimes committed in the context of the events taking place since March 15, 2011 till the date of issuing the decree.” The news agency says the amnesty applies to those who are accused of breaking laws on peaceful demonstration, carrying unlicensed weapons, and draft evasion. Syrians must “turn themselves in” by the end of the month to be granted amnesty, said the report.
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This undated photo released by Iranian Fars News Agency, claims to show Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who they say was killed in a bomb blast in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday, next to his son. Two assailants on a motorcycle attached a magnetic bomb to the car of an Iranian university professor working at a key nuclear facility, killing him and his driver, reports said. (Fars News Agency/AP)
Iran nuclear talks: Tehran says it's ready, despite assassination.
Iran has reiterated its willingness to engage in talks on its controversial nuclear program, just days after another Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran was producing 20 percent enriched uranium.
Iranian speaker of parliament Ali Larijani, who as the country's former top nuclear negotiator carries significant influence, said on a visit to Turkey yesterday that Tehran was ready for "serious" talks on its nuclear program, the BBC reports. The talks would be hosted by Istanbul and involve the so-called P5+1 group – the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany.
“Regarding the 5+1 talks, we have previously expressed Iran’s readiness to hold talks in order to resolve the nuclear issue,” said Mr. Larijani, speaking just a day after scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed in Tehran.
Given rising tensions related to increased international sanctions and the assassination of Mr. Roshan on Wednesday – the fourth Iranian nuclear scientist killed in the last two years, according to the Washington Post – many question whether the talks will move forward. It has been more than a year since Iran last discussed its nuclear goals with the P5+1, in Istanbul in January 2011, and Iran has not officially agreed to resume talks.
European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said she is still awaiting response from Iran on a formal request sent in October inviting the country to talk, reports BBC News.
At issue is whether Iran is using the existence of a nuclear power program, which it is entitled to have, as a guise for developing nuclear weapons – a charge Tehran has repeatedly denied.
The government insists it is only trying to generate nuclear power and radioactive medical isotopes, Agence France Presse reports, they have increased enrichment levels from 3.5 to 20 percent – still shy of the 90 percent needed for a weapon, but an important step down that road.
Olli Heinonen, a former senior official with the IAEA who is now at Harvard, wrote an op-ed in Foreign Policy yesterday outlining Iran’s potential nuclear path:
If Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium from 20 percent enriched uranium, it has already technically undertaken 90 percent of the enrichment effort required. What remains to be done is the feeding of 20 percent uranium through existing additional cascades to achieve weapons-grade enrichment (more than 90 percent uranium). This step is much faster than the earlier ones. Growing the stockpile of 3.5 percent and 20 percent enriched uranium, as Iran is now doing, provides the basic material needed to produce four to five nuclear weapons.
Mr. Heinonen says that would take half a year to do with current Iranian technology, however, more advanced resources could cut that time in half. “...[B]uilding an atomic bomb is a complex endeavor that requires precision engineering capabilities that Iran may lack," he adds, "but it does mean that the country would be able to "break out" of its international obligations very quickly should it decide to do so."
However, some believe a more pressing issue is finding consistent communication channels between the US and Iran, before misunderstandings or miscommunications lead to an unintended military conflict. Yesterday, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote:
“Since the embassy takeover that followed the Iranian revolution of 1979, the two nations haven’t had diplomatic recognition. They communicate indirectly, through the Swiss embassy, which is inadequate. So here’s a proposal in this period of deepening crisis: The United States and Iran should explore the possibility of direct contact through the sort of back channel that nations use to communicate urgent messages — namely, their intelligence services. Through this contact, each side could communicate its “red lines” in the crisis — for the United States, the insistence that Iran’s nuclear program remain peaceful; for Iran, presumably, an end to sanctions and a recognition that Iran is a significant regional power.…
"An intelligence channel might address the problem that has frustrated past efforts to engage Iran — which is the lack of an authoritative intermediary. An offer made by one faction in Tehran is disavowed by another. That’s what happened in the fall of 2009, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signaled his willingness to accept a formula for enriching uranium outside the country. But he didn’t have support from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose allies immediately began attacking the deal. It quickly collapsed.”
Yet, despite rising tensions in Iran, some specialists say the current scenario is not necessarily unprecedented. Former US assistant secretary of State James Dobbins now in charge of RAND's International Security and Defense Policy Center and Alireza Nader, a RAND senior policy analyst, argue in a New York Times op-ed:
“Iran is often depicted as an irrational actor, with Ahmadinejad’s seemingly erratic behavior and odious rhetoric serving as justification. Yet the clerical-led regime in Tehran is no less rational and calculating than the former Soviet Union or Communist China, both of which were successfully deterred and contained by the United States.”
A high-level United Nations nuclear delegation is slated to visit Iran later this month in an effort to answer some of the remaining questions about covert nuclear weapons that have heightened international attention on Iran this month, reports AFP. It is unclear, however, whether the envoy will be limited to speaking with Iranian officials, or granted access to inspect sites included in the IAEA's Nov. 8 report.
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This image provided by NASA shows the Strait of Hormuz taken from the International Space Station in September 2003. The US has issued a stern warning to Iran that closing the Strait of Hormuz would provoke military action. (NASA/AP/File)
US issues direct warning to Iran: close the Strait of Hormuz, risk military action
The United States has issued a stern warning to Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that closing the Strait of Hormuz would provoke an American military response. Previously, Washington – which does not have an embassy in Iran – has relied on Switzerland to communicate with the Iranian leadership, but the Obama administration reportedly used a new secret channel to relay this message in an effort to underscore the seriousness of the situation.
The admonishment comes in response to recent threats from Iran that it would close the waterway – through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes – if the West pursued tighter sanctions. Earlier this month, Iranian naval forces conducted drills to practice closing off a major waterway.
IN PICTURES: Iran's military might
Tensions between Iran and the West have steadily escalated in recent weeks, but the economic cost of closing the Strait of Hormuz would likely cripple Iran, making such an action unlikely.
“They would basically be taking a vow of poverty with themselves,” said Dennis Ross, a former Iran adviser for the Obama administration, in The New York Times. “I don’t think they’re in such a mood of self-sacrifice.”
The American warning coincided with the buildup of US forces in the Persian Gulf. As US troops left Iraq at the end of last year, Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis, head of the US Central Command, requested additional forces in the region. The scope of the deployment is only now apparent with 15,000 American troops stationed in Kuwait, reports The Los Angeles Times.
The new deployments include two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit, a substantial increase in combat power after nearly a decade in which Kuwait chiefly served as a staging area for supplies and personnel heading to Iraq.
The Pentagon also has decided to keep two aircraft carriers and their strike groups in the region.
The Pentagon has acted to reassure Iran and others in the region that the troops are only there to serve as a quick response force in the event of a major incident, not to prepare for a war.
Despite numerous indicators that Iran will not take a step as drastic as closing the Strait of Hormuz, American commanders have expressed concern that a rogue Iranian naval officer could create a dangerous situation and escalate tensions, reports The Atlantic.
James Blitz of the Financial Times outlined such a scenario.
“Given the sheer number of military exercises being conducted by Iran, Israel, and the US in the next few weeks, there is an outside chance that a conflict could accidentally erupt because of some misunderstanding in the Gulf,” writes Mr. Blitz. But while diplomatic relations with Iran have not been this tense since Iran’s nuclear program was first uncovered in 2002, the possibility of a military conflict is still a long way off, he writes. “The big moments of decision in this long-running saga are still at least a year away.”
While agreeing with other analysts that it is unlikely Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg Businessweek offers an in-depth look at how such a move would affect the international oil market. Bloomberg estimates a doubling of prices to more than $200 a barrel despite a variety of countermeasures that have been floated. Oil merchants could construct a pipeline that bypasses the Strait, but it could only move 7 million of the 17 million barrels that that pass through the strait everyday. The US could close some of the gap by tapping its strategic oil reserves, which holds 700 million barrels, while Saudi Arabia has the capacity to produce an addition 3 million barrels per day.
According to a separate report from Bloomberg, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency are traveling to Tehran this month to discuss Iran's nuclear program. While there has been no indication that Iran has changed its position, the meeting could provide an opportunity to ease recent tensions slightly.
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This image made from amateur video and made available by Shaam News Network Wednesday, Jan. 11, purports to show graffiti on an Arab League observer vehicle reading, "leave," as people demonstrate while observers visit al-Hasaka, Syria. (Shaam News Network/AP)
Observer mission in Syria begins to unravel, pushing forward UN option
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
One member of the Arab League's observer mission in Syria has quit and another is threatening to leave, calling the mission a "farce" and saying their presence in the country made little difference. Their criticism echoes what Syrian anti-Assad activists and much of the international community have been saying from the outset – that the mission had no power and would only be used by the Assad regime as a cover-up.
The mission was created to verify that Syria is complying with an Arab League agreement to end its violent crackdown on the opposition movement, pull the Army out of city streets, and release political prisoners. The first group of observers arrived in Syria on Dec. 26 and their numbers have gradually increased since then, now numbering 165.
Qatar's prime minister, head of the Arab League's committee on Syria, said in a news conference in Washington Wednesday that doubts about the "effectiveness" of the monitors are growing, Reuters reports. "I could not see up until now a successful mission, frankly speaking," he said. "We hope we will solve it, as we say, in the house of the Arabs, but right now the Syrian government is not helping us."
If the league admits that the mission has failed, it will be under immense pressure to refer Syria to the UN Security Council, although some members strongly oppose that action and may try to block it. Russia has also opposed UN action on Syria, although an appeal from the Arab League may sway its decision, according to Reuters.
On Jan. 10, observer Anwar Malek told Al Jazeera TV that he had quit the mission. Another, who insisted on remaining anonymous, told Reuters yesterday that he was "ready to walk out."
Asked if he agreed with Malek's characterization of the mission as a failure, the monitor said: "It is true, it is true. Even I am trying to leave on Friday. I'm going to Cairo or elsewhere... because the mission is unclear.... It does not serve the citizens. It does not serve anything."
"The Syrian authorities have exploited the weakness in the performance of the delegation to not respond. There is no real response on the ground."
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"The military gear is still present even in the mosques. We asked that military equipment be withdrawn from the Abu Bakr al-Siddiq mosque in Deraa and until today they have not withdrawn."
A UN official told the Security Council earlier this week that an estimated 400 people had been killed in Syria since the mission arrived, BBC reports. The US representative to the UN, Susan Rice, said the figure showed an acceleration in the killing of demonstrators. According to the UN, more than 5,000 people have been killed since the uprising began in March.
Mr. Malek told Al Jazeera that the government had "gained a lot of time to help it implement its plan" to squash the uprising by allowing the observers into the country, BBC reports.
"The snipers are everywhere shooting at civilians. People are being kidnapped. Prisoners are being tortured and none were released. … The mission was a farce and the observers have been fooled," he added. "The regime orchestrated it and fabricated most of what we saw to stop the Arab League from taking action against the regime."
He said that security forces had not withdrawn their tanks from the streets - as mandated by the Arab League peace initiative - but had just hidden them and then brought them back out after the observers had left.
He also said imprisoned protesters who were shown by state television being freed last month as part of an amnesty were actually people who had been detained at random four or five days earlier.
Eleven observers were injuried in the city of Latakia on Jan. 9, according to a separate BBC report. The Arab League, which blamed the attack on protesters but said Syrian authorities should have protected the mission, has delayed sending any more observers in as a result.
Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the mission had failed and that it should not continue indefinitely, Bloomberg reports. Its mandate expires on Jan. 19 and it's unclear whether observers will remain in the country or return.
A French television reporter, Gilles Jacquier, was killed Wednesday in Homs during a government-authorized trip. He is the first Western journalist to have been killed covering the conflict.
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US ends longest lull in drone strikes over Pakistan. Why now?
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
A two-month lull in drone strikes in Pakistan ended yesterday with a strike in North Waziristan. The temporary halt was widely believed to be an attempt by the US to prevent an irreparable break in an already fragile relationship after a mistaken US attack killed two dozen Pakistani soldiers – although it's unclear whether ties have sufficiently mended.
The strike is the first since the US mistakenly staged an airstrike against a Pakistani military position along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in mid-November, causing yet another diplomatic crisis between the two countries. The US insists it believed the position was held by militants, who use the border region as a staging ground for attacks on NATO troops in Afghanistan.
Yesterday's drone strike targeted a home in North Waziristan, killing at least four militants, Reuters reports.
Amid Pakistani fury after the mid-November strike, the US heeded a Pakistani call to vacate the air base in southwestern Pakistan that was used for staging drone strikes – although it denied that the two-month cessation of drone attacks was linked to the incident, Reuters reports. US officials told the agency that the break in strikes was merely due to a lack of intelligence on targets.
Drone surveillance missions have continued, launching from bases in Afghanistan, according to The New York Times.
However, The Associated Press reports that US officials said the lull was part of an effort "to tamp down tensions with Pakistan," as does The New York Times in a report yesterday. Pakistan also closed down critical NATO supply routes to Afghanistan after the November strike, and the US is still working to get the routes reopened.
Relations don't seem to have improved much since November, according to the AP – Pakistan rejected a US probe into the incident that attributed the attack to "a persistent lack of trust" and "a series of communications and coordination errors on both sides."
According to the AP, it was the longest break in drone use in Pakistan since the campaign got underway in 2009.
Drones have been a critical part of the Obama administration's counterterrorism operations in the region, particularly as the war winds down.
The New York Times reported yesterday that the lull has emboldened Al Qaeda and Pakistani militants, allowing them to regroup and increase attacks on both Pakistani security forces and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
Diplomats and intelligence analysts say the pause in C.I.A. missile strikes — the longest in Pakistan in more than three years — is offering for now greater freedom of movement to an insurgency that had been splintered by in-fighting and battered by American drone attacks in recent months. Several feuding factions said last week that they were patching up their differences, at least temporarily, to improve their image after a series of kidnappings and, by some accounts, to focus on fighting Americans in Afghanistan.
…
A logistics operative with the Haqqani terrorist group, which uses sanctuaries in Pakistan to carry out attacks on allied troops in Afghanistan, said militants could still hear drones flying surveillance missions, day and night. “There are still drones, but there is no fear anymore,” he said in a telephone interview. The logistics operative said fighters now felt safer to roam more freely.
US aid in Pakistan: Where's the money going?
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Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (l.) is received by Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez at the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday. The two leaders, known for making inflammatory comments to provoke the US, joked yesterday about the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons. (Ariana Cubillos/AP)
Ahmadinejad, Chavez taunt US from Caracas
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, two leaders known for making inflammatory comments to provoke the United States, joked yesterday about having a nuclear weapon at their disposal.
The atomic bomb comments, while in jest, are particularly striking because they come amid elevated tensions between the US and Iran. Last month, the US approved stricter sanctions on Iran following an IAEA report showing that Iran had pursued work related to nuclear weapons design. More sanctions are expected in January from the European Union. Iran has threatened to shut down a waterway critical to western oil supply.
Mr. Ahmadinejad is visiting four Latin American countries this week to strengthen ties with its allies in the region after tougher US sanctions on Iran were announced on Dec. 31, The Associate Press reports. During his first stop in Venezuela yesterday, Ahmadinejad laughed alongside Mr. Chavez as he said a hill in front of the presidential palace would open to expose a nuclear weapon.
"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores (presidential palace) basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles.... It's laughable,” Chavez said, according to the BBC.
Last week the Venezuelan Consul General to Miami was given 72 hours to leave the US amid allegations she was linked to a cyberattack plot targeting the US government. Iran and Cuba were also implicated in the Univision documentary that made the initial accusations.
While US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland dismissed the trip as "flailing around… to find new friends," some Iran observers worry the trip shows a level of desperation that could cause the country to make erratic and hazardous decisions, CNN reports.
Karim Sadjapour with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace tells CNN "there's a Persian saying that, when you have wild cat trapped in room, leave the door open to let it out."
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Sadjapour warns that instability could have devastating consequences. There is "legitimate concern," he says, "that the hardliners in Tehran are purposely trying to provoke some type of a US or Israeli attack on Iran in order to repair Iran's deep internal fissures, both between a disgruntled population against the regime and amongst Iran's political elites themselves."
Sadjapour calls that a "trap" that the United States and Israel "should be very careful about walking into."
Tensions are already high. In December, the US approved new sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank, the main conduit for Iranian oil reserves, and the European Union is laying the groundwork for an embargo on Iranian oil, which EU foreign ministers will discuss in late January, The Wall Street Journal reports. In response, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil shipping routes in the world. It transported 20 percent of the world’s oil in 2011, according to Reuters.
In an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, Michael Elleman, a senior fellow for regional security cooperation at the Institute for Strategic Studies, says that ballistic missiles may actually be a more pressing threat than nuclear weapons.
Since 2003, I don't know that there has been any evidence, at least in the public domain, of Iran taking measures to make a nuclear weapon. At least I have not seen any indication of that. But Iran certainly is making tremendous headway in developing a range of ballistic missiles that could threaten the cities throughout the Gulf and in Israel. That would include Turkey once this Sajjil- 2 , a two-stage system they are working on now reaches operational capacity.
That system has a range of approximately 2000 kilometers, though we're not really certain exactly what its maximum capacity is. Theoretically, it could threaten targets in the very southeastern corridor of Europe but there is no indication that they're developing that particular system to threaten Europe.”
Venezuela and Ecuador, another stop on Ahmadinejad's tour, are both offering to ignore Western sanctions, according to MSNBC.
"We say with clarity that we do not accept those sanctions," Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Ricardo Patino said. "We are a sovereign nation, we don't have dads punishing us and putting us in the corner for behaving badly. They [the US] should instead be sanctioning the US companies doing massive business in Tehran like Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola."
Ahmadinejad and Chavez will be in Nicaragua tomorrow for the inauguration of President Daniel Ortega, who has been openly welcoming to Iran.
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Syrians watch a televised broadcast of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad deliver a speech at Damascus University, at a restaurant in old Damascus, Syria, Tuesday. Assad vowed Tuesday to respond to threats against him with an "iron fist" and refused to step down, insisting he still has his people's support despite the 10-month-old uprising against him. (Muzaffar Salman/AP)
Syria's Assad, in rare speech, claims victory is nigh (+video)
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
In a rare speech today, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad blamed 10 months of unrest on foreign conspirators and vowed to come down on "terrorists" with an "iron fist." Notably absent from the speech, with went on for more than an hour and a half, were any concessions.
The speech "gave no hint of any flexibility that could break the deadlock between his regime and the opposition," but instead suggested the regime believes its brutal crackdown is close to breaking the opposition, reports the Guardian newspaper. "We are nearing the end of the crisis," Mr. Assad said. "We should stand united.… Victory is near because we can be steadfast. We know our enemies."
The speech – only his fourth public address since the uprising began in March – "differed little" from previous speeches in which he made vague promises of reform, blamed the violence on terrorists and foreigners, and remained generally defiant of internal and international criticism, according to the Associated Press. This time, however, there are Arab League observers in the country to evaluate his claims of foreign saboteurs and media lies.
"Bashar is completely removed from reality, as if he is talking about a country other than Syria," said a Syria-based activist who identified himself by his nickname, Abu Hamza, because of fear of reprisals. "After 10 months of bloodshed, he comes out and talks of a foreign conspiracy."
The United Nations said last month that more than 5,000 people, including soldiers who have defected or refused to shoot on civilians, have been killed since protests began. The Syrian government dismissed that report, which did not account for any serving members of the military killed by opponents, as "incredible" and countered that 2,000 members of the security forces have been killed, according to BBC.
Previous speeches often included promises of reform, and in today's speech, Assad said a referendum on the Constitution and elections could be held this year. However, he also said any reforms made should not be in response to the uprising. "We should link what happened before the crisis and post-crisis and then embark on reform.... We shouldn't build our reforms on this crisis," he said, according to BBC.
Most promises of reform have not yet been fulfilled.
Assad also slammed the Arab League, accusing it of hypocrisy for lecturing Damascus on reforms and of abandoning its Arab identity by suspending Syria's membership in November. "The Arab League is no longer Arab; we should call it the 'Foreign League,' " he said, according to the Guardian's liveblog of the speech.
Damascus has only partially implemented the pledges it made to the League in December – mainly to withdraw the Army from city streets and to release political prisoners detained during the uprising – but the Arab League has opted to keep the observer mission going. The number of monitors in the country will be boosted again this week, from 165 to 200, Reuters reports. The Associated Press reports that a group of observers from Kuwait was attacked by "unknown protesters" in northern Syria today and two were wounded.
The observer mission will present the Arab League with a report by Jan. 19, Bloomberg notes.
The mission has been heavily criticized by the opposition for the poor human rights record of its chief, for its inability to move about freely, and for its reluctance to enter the most contested areas of the country. Its presence has nevertheless made a difference, argues an editorial in Lebanon's Daily Star.
But the observers have had an impact; they have recorded the violations to Syria’s commitments to the Arab League, and masses of people have taken to the street to express their opposition to the government of President Bashar Assad, in part encouraged by the presence of the monitors.
While it is too soon to condemn the mission as a failure, the clock is now ticking on the second half of this contest. The remaining 10 days of the monitors’ mission represent the final opportunity for Syrian officials to honor their country’s signature on the agreement with the Arab League.
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Iranian-American Amir Mirza Hekmati, who has been sentenced to death by Iran's Revolutionary Court on the charge of spying for the CIA, speaks during a recorded interview in an undisclosed location, in this undated still image taken from video made available to Reuters TV on January 9. (Reuters TV)
Iran sentences American to death for spying
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Iran’s Revolutionary Court sentenced an Iranian-American to death for espionage today. A former US Marine who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, is accused of receiving training from the US Central Intelligence Agency and attempting to infiltrate Iranian intelligence services. Mr. Hekmati said that he was only in Iran to visit his grandmother and denied all charges of spying.
News of the conviction comes at a time when tensions between the US and Iran are already high. Most recently, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies, and the situation with Hekmati is likely to strain relations still further.
“As with any case involving espionage, there’s no way to know the truth behind either side of the story, but regardless of the facts, the sentencing will only heighten tensions between two countries who don’t need another reason to hate each other,” writes The Atlantic's Dashiell Bennett.
Iran’s Press TV alleged that Hekmati received a decade of intelligence training during his time in the US military and that he began working for the CIA in 2009, with Iran as his primary specialty. Officials also claim that he received training and classified information during a trip to Bagram Airbase, one of the largest US military facilities in Afghanistan, before traveling to Iran. Iran announced that they had arrested Hekmati on Dec. 17.
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that Hekmati admitted to ties with the CIA, but said he had no intention of working against Iran.
“In this mission I was fooled by the CIA and although I had entered Iran with a mission to infiltrate in the Islamic Republic of Iran's intelligence systems and to turn into a new source for the CIA, I didn't want to hit a blow to Iran,” he was quoted as saying by the Fars News Agency.
American diplomatic officials demanded the release of Hekmati and complained that officials from the Swiss Embassy, which represents US interests in Iran, were not allowed to see him before or during his trial. Charges like those leveled against the Iranian-American are not uncommon in Iran and The New York Times reports that Islamic Republic regularly announces it has captured people spying on behalf of the US and Israel.
Hekmati’s family members in Arizona, where he is originally from, have insisted that he is innocent.
In 2009, three American hikers were arrested while hiking along the Iraq-Iran border and were accused of being spies. One was released in 2010, but the other two were held until September 2011. Also in 2009, American journalist Roxana Saberi, who has Iranian roots, was accused of spying and held in prison for four months.
“We are deeply concerned for the fate and well-being of Amir,” Hekmati's mother, Behnaz, told CNN before the sentencing. “We are also disturbed by the video and reports coming from the Iranian court that describe Amir admitting to being a spy. It is clear to me and our entire family that Amir is speaking under duress.”
Tensions between the US and Iran were already elevated before Hekmati’s sentencing, the BBC reports. In late December, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil trade passes. Iranian officials also threatened to take action if a group of US naval ships passed through the Strait. American officials have said they will respond with military action if Iran attempts to close the waterway.
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Arab League monitors walk through the Al-Sabil area of Daraa, Syria, Jan. 3. Syrian activists accused President Bashar Assad's regime of misleading Arab League observers while other Syrian residents say Syrian forces stop shelling while the observers visit and continuing their shelling when the observers leave. (SANA/AP)
Syria on edge as monitors prepare to give initial report
The Arab League is set to hear the initial results of its observation mission to Syria and determine its next step to rein in the ongoing violence between Damascus' forces and anti-government protesters.
The head of the mission, Sudanese Lt. Gen. Mohammed al-Dabi, will give his first official report to a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers today, but the League is already showing indications that it will expand the mission and perhaps even seek United Nations assistance. Al Jazeera English writes that Qatar, which currently heads the League, is pushing to invite UN technicians and human rights experts to help Arab monitors judge whether Syria is complying with the peace deal it agreed to last month.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told AJE that Syria was not living up to its commitments, and its forces are still killing civilians.
Dabi told the UK's Observer newspaper that Damascus had shown observers "enough" cooperation for the moment. However, he said he was hesitant to judge the mission's success so far, as it "has only just started, ... I have not had enough time to form a view."
"Missions like these can take a long time," he added. "The African Union mission in Sudan began in 2004 and it is still there. I can't say how long this one will take.''
But Dabi has been a source of controversy himself. The Observer notes that he was a former head of Sudanese military intelligence in Darfur, and is close to Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who is himself wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court. And after visiting the flashpoint Syrian city of Homs, where many have been killed by government forces, he said that "some places looked a bit of a mess but there was nothing frightening."
Residents of Homs told CNN that the Syrian forces simply work around the observers' schedule, halting while they are present and continuing their shelling of the city when the observers leave. "They take the leaguers where they want," one resident told CNN on Saturday. "These are massacres. We have tens dying daily. Stores are closed ... civilian life is at a halt."
Saturday also saw pro-government demonstrations in Damascus amid mourning for 26 people reportedly killed in a suicide bombing on Friday. Reuters reports that state television showed mourners lined the streets in the neighborhood where the bombing took place, as crowds chanted "The people want Bashar al-Assad!" and "One, one, one, the Syrian people are one!"
But the opposition Syrian National Council accused Damascus of staging the bombing to bolster its contention that it is fighting foreign-backed "terrorists," not a popular pro-democracy movement.
Footage provided by anti-government activists appears to support the opposition's accusation, reports AJE. The video, which activists say was mistakenly aired without editing by Syrian state television, show bags of vegetables and police shields being placed at the sites of purported attacks -- apparently to indicate that shoppers and police were injured by the bombings. Another video shows a man, initially appearing injured, suddenly get up and walk off camera unharmed.
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