Terrorism & Security
A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Al Qaeda militants serious threat as Yemen transitions away from Saleh
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Al Qaeda militants in southern Yemen attacked several military bases in the region, resulting in the death of at least 106 people. The attacks show that militants continue to be a serious threat in Yemen, even as the nation attempts to transition from the dictatorship of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Some 78 soldiers and 28 militants were killed in the attacks in and around the city of Zinjibar, one of two cities under Al Qaeda control in southern Yemen, reports The New York Times. Another 55 Yemeni troops were captured by Al Qaeda and paraded through Jaar, the other Al Qaeda-held city, according to the Associated Press. A Yemeni official called the attacks a major escalation in the conflict, writes the Times.
Military officials said that the militants seized armored vehicles, artillery pieces, assault rifles, and rockets from the base's stores and turned them on the soldiers, causing most of the casualties. A Defense Ministry statement on Sunday said the fighting began when militants detonated "booby trapped vehicles" at an Army base in the region of Koud, near Zinjibar. The Associated Press reports that the wording of the statement suggested the base had been occupied by the militants before Army forces regrouped and took it back.
Zinjibar and Jaar were both abandoned by Yemeni forces over the past year amid the tumult around Mr. Saleh's government. Some of the soldiers were called to the capital, Sanaa, to bolster the government, while others left their posts.
The attacks on the military bases were just part of an uptick in activity for Al Qaeda, which also claimed to have killed a CIA officer in the southern province of Aden, reports Reuters. Journalists in Yemen received a text message on Friday saying that "The mujihadeen [holy warriors] killed a CIA officer on Thursday while he was in Aden Province, after tracking him and determining he was cooperating with the Sanaa government," Reuters reports. Yemeni and Pentagon officials denied the report, however, saying that a gunman did attack a US vehicle on Friday but did not cause any injuries.
The attacks present an early challenge for the new government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who took power last week after Saleh stepped down following months of protests and upheaval. Mr. Hadi, a longtime deputy of Saleh and a relative unknown in Yemen, has indicated his intention to crack down on Al Qaeda and retake the militant-controlled south.
A key part of Hadi's efforts will turn on his ability to reform the military, a longtime demand of the Yemeni people. The Gulf Times reports that thousands of Yemenis demonstrated on Friday to demand the Army's restructuring. During his long reign, Saleh placed several members of his family in key positions in the military, including his son, who leads the elite Republican Guard, and his half-brother, who commands the Air Force.
Hadi has shown early indications that he plans to follow through on the public's demands, as one of his first acts in office was to fire Gen. Mahdi Maqola, the head military commander in the southern region. Maqola, who held the post for decades, has close ties to Saleh and has been accused of corruption. But The Wall Street Journal reports that Maqola refused to leave his post, underscoring the resistance to reform that the government faces.
It is difficult to gauge Hadi's chances for success, as he has largely stayed in the background of Yemeni politics, despite 17 years as Saleh's deputy. The Christian Science Monitor reports that Yemeni commentators have called him "a weak man in terms of personality" and "a quiet personality" without "plans or ambitions to become the vice president."
But at least one commentator sees some reason to believe Hadi may yet be influential. Syrian professor Sami Moubayed, in a commentary for Asia Times Online, draws a comparison between Hadi and former Egyptian leader Anwar al-Sadat.
The story of Yemen's new president reminds us of Egypt on the eve of Gamal Abdul Nasser's death in 1970. While at the apex of his career, Nasser appointed his loyal protege Anwar al-Sadat as vice-president, believing that Sadat would always carry out orders with no questions asked.
When Nasser died in September 1970, heavyweights in the Egyptian state backed Sadat for president, arguing that he would be a weak and colorless leader who they would be able to play with at will because he lacked a strong personality, and a power base on the Egyptian Street. Pretty soon, however, Sadat matured into a political genius, bringing down his opponents, one by one, and rising to paramount leadership traits that he matched - and in some cases outdid - the legendary Nasser himself. In theory, nothing prevents Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi from writing Ali Abdullah Saleh into history, and becoming another Anwar al-Sadat.
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Damaged buildings covered in snow are seen in Baba Amr district of Homs in this still image taken from video footage broadcast on Syria TV on Friday. Humanitarian aid began arriving in the Syrian city of Homs today, as international pressure on the Syrian government builds. (Syria TV via Reuters TV/Reuters)
Humanitarian aid arrives in Homs, Syria, as international pressure builds
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
Humanitarian aid began arriving in the Syrian city of Homs today, as international pressure on the Syrian government intensified over the violent crackdown on opponents of the Assad regime. Today even Syrian allies Russia and China joined the push for humanitarian relief to the conflict-ravaged country.
A small Red Cross/Red Crescent convoy of trucks reached Homs Friday after a long journey from Damascus through snow, reports BBC News. The Syrian Red Crescent's Khaled Erksoussi told Agence France-Presse that the convoy was "carrying food, medicines, blankets, milk for babies and other equipment." Red Crescent volunteers and medical personnel plan to distribute the supplies to residents of the besieged neighborhood of Baba Amr, which has been the target of shelling by the Syrian military over the past few weeks.
But rebels retreated from the neighborhood on Thursday in a "tactical withdrawal," according to the Free Syrian Army. As a result, Red Cross spokesman Sean Maguire told the BBC, "in theory there should be no obstacle to us going in there and staying there on a day-to-day basis. Our colleagues from the Syrian Red Crescent have been distributing food and assistance in other areas of Homs on a daily basis, and we hope to be able to do the same in Baba Amr."
The BBC's Jim Muir writes that the first task for the Red Cross will be to assess the situation, which he expects is grim. "It's freezing cold and snowing; electricity had been cut off and there has been no fuel for heating. Food, water and medical supplies had also run very short.
"Syrian state television carried pictures of Baba Amr and even from afar, it's clear that hardly a building has not been hit during the weeks of bombardment by artillery and tanks," he wrote.
The Red Crescent mission to Homs comes as pressure to allow humanitarian aid into the country increases. The UN Security Council unanimously voted to express "deep disapproval" of Syria's refusal to allow UN humanitarian aid chief Valerie Amos into the country, reports Reuters. The vote has particular weight as it included Russia and China, both of which have supported President Bashar al-Assad's regime despite criticism from the West.
Reuters notes that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also appeared to distance himself from the regime in an interview with The Times of London, saying that "It is up to the Syrians to decide who should run their country.... We need to make sure they stop killing each other."
But despite the pressure steadily ratcheting up on Mr. Assad, the regime shows no signs of cracking, writes The New York Times. Assad retains a firm grip on the Syrian military, which retains many advantages over the rebel forces, including a vastly greater arsenal and a cohesive command structure made up primarily of Alawites, the religious sect Assad belongs to.
“For 40 years this army was structured and shaped for the worst-case scenario, which is happening today, and that is why it is holding,” said retired Lebanese Army Gen. Elias Hanna.
The Times adds that a senior US official estimated that the Syrian government's military efforts cost $1 billion each month. But while analysts say Syria's foreign reserves are presently less than $10 billion, many believe that Russia and China are helping to offset the government's expenses.
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Syrian National Council leader Burhan Ghalioun smiles during a news conference, Paris, March 1. Syria's main opposition group formed a military council Thursday to organize and unify all armed resistance to President Bashar Assad's regime, pushing the conflict another step closer to civil war. (Thibault Camus/AP)
Syria's nonviolent opposition aligns with armed groups
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All eyes on Syria are trained on the city of Homs, particularly the neighborhood of Baba Amr, as residents and the international community both await a crushing full-scale Syrian Army assault that seems imminent.
The Syrian Army claims to have already taken Baba Amr, which has been the most heavily targeted part of Homs in the almost month-long assault of the city. Yesterday government officials said they were “mopping up” pockets of resistance in the area, BBC reports. However, members of the opposition say the Free Syrian Army (FSA), an armed faction of the opposition, repelled regime forces from the neighborhood.
The New York Times reports, based off conversations with Homs civilians and members of the opposition there, that the long-expected ground assault on Baba Amr has not yet begun. But with the disappearance of checkpoints surrounding the neighborhood and the arrival of additional tanks just outside, most expect it to begin at any time.
“It was a very aggressive attack on Baba Amr today,” Mulham al-Jundi, an activist in a nearby neighborhood, said Wednesday. He said he doubted the army would enter Baba Amr with tanks. “I don’t think they want to enter it anyway; they want to destroy it completely by shelling it from adjacent villages and neighborhoods.
Snipers deployed on buildings were picking off anyone who moved along the streets, he said, so it was impossible to assess how many people were left. Moving into and out of the neighborhood meant courting death, he added. “The humanitarian situation is really bad,” Mr. Jundi said, referring to the entire city. Multiple neighborhoods have lost their electricity completely in recent days. Activists in Baba Amr say they have been using badly needed fuel to refrigerate the bodies of Marie Colvin and Rémi Ochlik, two Western journalists killed there last week.
After months of conflict within the opposition over whether to link the FSA with the Syrian National Council, the umbrella group representing the unarmed factions of the opposition, the council announced it had formed a military bureau to coordinate with the rebel army, BBC reports.
"The Syrian revolution began as a non-violent movement and has maintained its peaceful nature for months. The situation has changed and the SNC will shoulder its responsibilities in light of this new-found reality," the council said in a statement.
The statement did not mention supplying arms to the rebels, but pledged to "work on providing the FSA with all the support it needs to completely fulfil its defence responsibilities.”
Burhan Ghalioun, the head of the SNC, told reporters in Paris that the bureau would help move arms from other countries to rebels fighting in Syria, The New York Times reports. He did not disclose who is providing the arms, but both Saudi Arabia and Qatar previously called for arming the opposition.
Meanwhile, the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva passed a resolution today, proposed by Turkey, condemning Syria for “systematic violations” against civilians, the Associated Press reports. Thirty-seven countries supported it and Russia and China, who blocked UN Security Council efforts to take stronger action against the Syrian regime, as well as Cuba, were the only ones to vote against it. There were several abstentions.
The resolution also encouraged the gathering of evidence for possible crimes against humanity charges down the line. According to AP, while the council’s vote has no legal weight, it is considered a “strong moral signal” that could encourage a similar resolution in the Security Council.
The US representative on the council, Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe, told AP “it was crucial that so many countries had accepted that the government crackdown was the cause” of the crisis, which has resulted in the death of at least 7,500 people, according to conservative UN estimates. Activist groups put the number at about 9,000. The Syrian government insists that it is merely fighting back against armed terrorists.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a conference in Tel Aviv, Tuesday, Feb. 28. Netanyahu sets off for a critical US visit next week with a serious rift apparently developing over a possible Israeli military offensive against the nuclear program of Iran. (Oded Balilty/AP)
Reports: Netanyahu will push Obama hard on Iran
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to take a harder line on Iran in next week’s meeting with President Obama in hopes of pressuring the United States into making more decisive pronouncements on its potential responses to Iran’s nuclear development.
Haaretz reports that, according to an unnamed Israeli official, Mr. Netanyahu wants more than the "vague assertion that 'all options are on the table.' " He wants Mr. Obama to publicly state that the US is prepared for a military operation against Iran should the country “cross certain ‘red lines.’ ”
But White House officials say Netanyahu will go home empty-handed. The Los Angeles Times reports that Obama has no intention of making any policy shift toward Iran and that he believes the current US strategy – diplomacy and increasingly strict sanctions – is taking a toll on Iran.
“A more explicit military threat is not helpful,” senior White House officials told The Times. While Washington's red line is Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb, Israel's threshold is lower: Iran merely acquiring the knowledge and industrial means to build a nuclear bomb.
There are several countries who have the capability to build a nuclear weapon but have never tried, it reports, and Pentagon and intelligence officials have said that they do not believe Iran has decided to build a bomb.
Haaretz reports that there is a gaping trust deficit between Netanyahu and Obama, based on the mutual feeling that each is interfering in the other country’s domestic affairs. Netanyahu believes that the US is trying to turn Israeli public opinion against a strike on Iran, while Obama believes Israel is using the US Congress and the Republican presidential candidates to pressure Obama into taking a stronger stance to avoid appearing weak in comparison.
According to Haaretz, when US national security adviser Tom Donilon visited Israel last week, Israeli officials raised the prospect of strengthening US rhetoric on Iran, as did Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak when he was in the US. And the Obama administration became more suspicious after Netanyahu and some of his advisers met with five US senators, including Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, and reportedly complained about officials in the Obama administration who were supporting public discourse that “serves the Iranians.”
The stakes are much higher for Israel, which is within range of Iran's missiles and doesn't have as massive a military deterrent as the US. The New York Times reports that the US expects in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran, Iran will retaliate with missiles against Israel but will temper its actions against the US “so as not to give the United States a rationale for taking military action that could permanently cripple Tehran’s nuclear program.” They expect a series of terrorist-style attacks – perhaps on US troops in Afghanistan or petroleum infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
“The balance the Iranians will try to strike is doing damage that is sufficiently significant, but just short of what it would take for America to invade,” retired Gen. James Cartwright, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Times.
However, US officials also acknowledged that they do not know the internal thinking of Tehran’s leadership and that “in the heat of conflict” their reaction could be erratic and illogical.
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Smoke from shelling rises over the Khaldiyeh area of Homs, Syria, on Sunday, Feb. 26. (Reuters)
Syria's Assad reportedly launching ground invasion of Homs
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
The day after Syrians approved a new Constitution in a nationwide referendum, which ostensibly could lead to a more democratic system of government, President Bashar al-Assad appeared to be voting with his tanks for continued repression.
Reuters reports that, according to activists in the opposition stronghold of Homs, Mr. Assad sent tanks and troops from an elite armored division of the Syrian Army led by his brother into the city. The tanks were reportedly labeled "Fourth Division Monsters."
Since an aerial bombardment of Homs began three weeks ago, residents had expressed fear that the brutal air assault against the city was merely laying the groundwork for a ground invasion by the Army.
Hundreds have died in the air assault on Homs – activists estimated 68 deaths yesterday alone, Bloomberg reports, and footage of the carnage has flooded YouTube and social networking sites. But an influx of troops could be yet worse in some ways, potentially leading to door-to-door sweeps, arrests, and potential torture of detainees out of the spotlight of media and fellow citizens.
As the death toll climbs past 8,000 (according to human rights groups) and Assad continues to defy all Western attempts to pressure him into ending the violence, international leaders are scrambling to find a course of action. Yesterday the European Union ratcheted up sanctions on the Syrian regime by placing sanctions on the central bank and seven more government ministers, banning cargo flights from Syrian airline carriers, and banning trade on gold, diamonds, and some other precious metals, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The EU foreign ministers also recognized the Syrian National Council (SNC), an umbrella group representing the opposition, as a “legitimate representative” of the Syrian people (but not “the” legitimate representative, as happened with Libya’s Transitional National Council, as Tony Karon notes in Time.)
Western leaders called the constitutional referendum and its results a farce. But Russia and China – who have repeatedly blocked international efforts to take stronger action against Syria – said they were a step toward reform and reiterated their opposition to a military intervention in Syria, The New York Times reports.
“No one should be allowed to employ the Libyan scenario in Syria,” [Russian Prime Minister Vladimir] Putin wrote. “I would like to warn our Western colleagues against the temptation to resort to this simple, if previously used, tactic.
"No good can come of it. In any case, it will not help reach a settlement in a country that is going through a domestic conflict.”
According to the Syrian government, 89.4 percent of voters backed the new Constitution, which allows for a multiparty democracy. Almost 60 percent of eligible voters voted, which Interior Minister Maj. Gen. Muhammad Ibrahim al-Shaar said was a good showing given “the threats and intimidation by armed terrorist groups,” the Times reports. The government has consistently described the opposition as armed gangs or terrorists.
Statements from the regime that the new Constitution was a step toward reform were almost universally panned in the West.
The Monitor’s Dan Murphy writes that the routine rigging of elections, torture, and murder of dissidents, and the Assad family’s determination to hold on to power (Bashar al-Assad was preceded by his father, Hafez) make it unlikely that the regime intends to implement the promised constitutional reforms. Even if they did, the brutality shown toward the opposition makes it unlikely that anti-Assad Syrians could work with the leader, he argues.
Syrian society has now become so polarized, that whatever slim chance a constitutional change would have ever had to shore up Assad's rule has evaporated. The Internet has been filled with horrific videos and photographs of dead and dying civilians and the emotions of the situation – and fears of what Assad would do with his opponents if he were to win a decisive victory – are now a guarantee of ongoing conflict.
…
It's hard to see a fast improvement in the situation. The one thing that's certain is that a new Constitution is not going to be relevant to the ultimate resolution of the country's conflict.
Tony Karon writes in Time that Assad is no longer able to crush the uprising outright, and that his goal now is to remain a part of the political landscape and to secure a place in government alongside the opposition. The appetite for intervention has not increased in the West, but Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been intensifying calls to arm the rebel Free Syrian Army.
By militarizing the political contest in Syria, Assad has effectively created a sectarian civil war that presents the Syrian population with stark choices that work in his favor. And the more intense and protracted the military conflict becomes, the greater the danger that the de facto leadership of the rebellion passes to more extreme and sectarian elements — which, of course, reinforces Assad’s own hold on his core support.
All sides in Syria, then, appear to be hunkering down for a protracted civil war — a conflict of a type that, given the external backing on which the combatants rely, is unlikely to end in a rout by either side. And if it ends at the negotiation table, as the Balkan wars of the 1990s did, Assad will be hoping at least to secure his place as a key player at the table. Indeed, even the SNC in a statement last Friday appeared to walk back from its refusal to engage with the regime, saying that negotiation — if the regime first agrees to a cease-fire — ”is still possible and is likely the best way to achieve the desired goal of regime change.”
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An Afghan policeman inspects a wreckage of a car hit by a car bomb attack in Jalalabad province February 27. A suicide car bomber killed at least nine people in an attack on a military airport in eastern Afghanistan on Monday, officials said, the latest incident of violence and protests since copies of the Koran were inadvertently burned at a NATO base last week. (Parwiz/REUTERS)
Taliban claim Afghanistan suicide attack, citing 'revenge' for Quran burnings
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
An Afghan suicide bomber detonated his car outside the NATO base and airport in the eastern Afghanistan city of Jalalabad today. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was revenge against the US soldiers who burned Qurans last week.
His attack caps a deadly week in Afghanistan that has prompted NATO and others to recall hundreds of advisers from Afghan ministries who have been preparing the Afghan government and security forces to take on more responsibility as the drawdown of international forces begins, the Associated Press reports. Reuters cites a US Embassy warning of a "heightened" threat to US citizens in Afghanistan.
In today’s attack, the assailant drove his car into the gates of the airport, triggering a blast and killing nine Afghans.
US President Obama apologized for the Quran burnings, which took place at Bagram air base, north of Kabul, and which the US has said were inadvertent. His Afghan counterpart, President Hamid Karzai, called for the punishment of the soldiers who burned the holy books, but also urged Afghans to refrain from violence – a request that has not been heeded.
The Quran burnings spurred several days of deadly protests in Kabul and elsewhere in the country that killed dozens, including four international troops at the hands of Afghan counterparts, according to the AP. Two of them were US military advisers who were shot and killed at the Interior Ministry.
Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Afghanistan, said yesterday that the violence does not change American plans in the country and will not accelerate the US troops withdrawal process, Reuters reports. The US is currently scheduled to leave by the end of 2014.
Among European members of the coalition in particular, where the war is “deeply unpopular,” pressure is building for an earlier withdrawal, according to Reuters. NATO, Britain, and Germany withdrew their advisers from Afghan government ministries after the killing of the two advisers last week.
The killings within the Interior Ministry are particularly troubling because as international forces shift from a combat role to an advisory one, they are increasingly working within the Afghan government.
The Monitor’s Dan Murphy wrote two days ago that the reaction to the Quran burnings was “sadly predictable.”
The public fury unleashed by events is also a reminder that Afghans are chafing at the extended military occupation of the country. And now [Gen. John Allen, the US commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan] has been forced to concede with his orders today that agents of the Afghan government, NATO's local ally in its war against the Taliban, can't be trusted.
The simple fact is that after 10 years of war, hearts and minds have not been won. Legions of civilian and military advisers from Europe and the US, seeking to inculcate an outside political culture in the hearts of Afghans, have largely failed. The tinder of anger and humiliation is thick on the ground. And this is not just about Taliban supporters.
And, he adds, this crisis comes at a time of record low US public support for the war in Afghanistan.
The US president now has European allies tired of the war and grappling with economic crisis at home. With the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan last May, the US public's appetite for the Afghan war has also diminished. A CNN poll in October found domestic support for the war at its lowest point since it started in 2001, down to 34 percent. Over 1,900 US soldiers have now been killed in the Afghan war.
It bears repeating: The two latest US casualties were in the heart of the Afghan Interior ministry, killed by an Afghan whose gun and ammunition were paid for by the US taxpayer.
The Taliban also claims that a cook on an eastern Afghanistan base poisoned the food of coalition troops, killing five. The coalition forces’ eastern regional command said that while trace amounts of bleach were found in food in the dining area, prompting a shutdown of the dining area for an investigation, there were no deaths or injuries, the Guardian reports.
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An Afghan boy who works at a bakery watches a protest outside his window in Kabul on Friday. (Ahmad Masood/Reuters)
Kabul embroiled in day 4 of Quran burning protests (+video)
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Soldiers and police were on high alert in Kabul as thousands of Afghans took to the streets for a fourth day of protests over reports of NATO personnel burning of several copies of Islam's holy book. The continued protests come a day after two US soldiers were killed by a man wearing an Afghan Army uniform, indicating worsening fallout from the Qurans' burnings.
Demonstrators throwing rocks and shouting "Death to America!" and "Long live Islam!" marched toward the presidential palace after Friday prayers. Police attempted to disperse the crowd by firing into the air; one protester was injured by the gunfire, Reuters reports. The New York Times reports that some protesters waved Taliban flags and wore headbands bearing jihadist slogans.
Also on Friday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai met with his political allies to attempt to rein in the violent protests, which have left nearly a dozen people dead. The Times writes that while Mr. Karzai and other Afghan politicians share the public's disgust over the burning of the Qurans, they fear that if the violence continues, police or military may use deadly force against protesters. That action could, in turn, set off a cycle of violence.
IN PICTURES: Winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan
Karzai has indicated that he has accepted the apology of US President Obama, which was given in a letter Thursday. One Afghan lawmaker told the Times that in Karzai's meeting with members of Parliament, he "said that ‘according to our investigation we have found that American soldiers mistakenly insulted the Koran and we will accept their apology.’”
The incident has already harmed US efforts in Afghanistan, both directly and indirectly. A man that NATO described as wearing an Afghan Army uniform – which, Monitor reporter Dan Murphy notes, is a "boilerplate bit of epistemological doubt" that "has become common in ISAF statements over the past year, and the killers almost always turn out to be Afghan soldiers or police" – shot and killed two US soldiers on Thursday in apparent response to the burnings. The Taliban called on more Afghan security forces to "turn their guns on the foreign infidel invaders."
And Pakistan and Iran have both turned up the political pressure on the US. Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami said in a speech that the Quran burning "was not a mistake. It was an intentional move, done on purpose." And the Pakistani Foreign Ministry called the burning "utterly irresponsible."
“On behalf of the government and the people of Pakistan, we condemn in strongest possible terms the desecration of Holy Quran in Afghanistan,” a spokesman said.
Matthew Fisher, a columnist for Canada's Postmedia Network, warns that the Quran burnings haven't just harmed American efforts in Afghanistan, but they've directed a blow to Western efforts more broadly.
"Thanks to a staggering blunder by American troops, the jobs of all NATO soldiers in Afghanistan, including more than 900 Canadian military advisers scattered across more than a dozen bases in Kabul and western Afghanistan, got more complicated and dangerous," he wrote. "Given the consequences of this colossally stupid act at Bagram, Obama might have also apologized to Canada and to the other coalition forces in Afghanistan for making the work of their troops more perilous."
IN PICTURES: Winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan
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Iraqi firefighters try to extinguish a burning bus at the scene of a car bomb explosion in Karradah in downtown Baghdad, Iraq, Feb. 23. A swift series of bombings and shootings killed dozens of people across the Iraqi capital early Thursday in attacks that mostly appeared to target police, officials said. (Hadi Mizban/AP)
Wave of attacks in Iraq ends weeks of calm (+video)
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A wave of bombings across Iraq today killed more than 50 people and wounded more than 200. Although not the deadliest day in the country since US troops completed their withdrawal, this morning’s attacks are the most far-reaching so far, according to the Washington Post.
The attacks, carried out with car bombs and small arms, targeted Iraqi security forces in Baghdad and elsewhere in the country – a hallmark of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Associated Press reports.
Al Qaeda in Iraq, as well as other Sunni insurgent groups, are “bent on destabilizing” the country and have launched attacks, mostly in Baghdad, every couple weeks since the US withdrawal. A senior Iraqi intelligence official told the AP that he predicted today’s attacks were meant to scare diplomats who plan on attending the Arab League summit scheduled to be held in Baghdad in late March. Last year’s summit, also planned for Baghdad, was canceled for that reason.
There were at least 14 separate attacks today, according to AP. Several of them targeted police checkpoints and patrols, and one of them targeted a police station. The deadliest hit, carried out by a car bomb in downtown Baghdad’s shopping district, killed nine and wounded 26, sending shockwaves several blocks. The police have been targeted frequently. Twenty were killed earlier this week by a suicide bomber who detonated outside the Baghdad police academy.
The Washington Post reports that today’s attacks were preceded by weeks of calm, which many Iraqis attribute to Sunni insurgents crossing the border into Syria to join the revolt against President Bashar al Assad.
McClatchy reported earlier this week that violence has declined sharply – in some areas it is down as much as 50 percent from autumn 2011 levels – particularly in the region along the Syrian border. The Obama administration said last week that it believes Al Qaeda is behind some of the most “spectacular” attacks against the Assad regime.
Concerns about another sectarian conflict were high earlier in the year, when Shiite Prime Minister Nour al Maliki tried to arrest the Sunni vice president, alleging that he ordered death squads targeting security forces. A bloc of Sunni lawmakers boycotted the parliament and Baghdad was rocked by a series of bombings.
Reuters reports that Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish lawmakers have spent the last several weeks trying to negotiate an end to the political crisis, but their work was disrupted last week when a panel of judges released details of 150 attacks that they say were carried out by death squads under Vice President Tareq al Hashemi’s command.
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French photographer Remi Ochlik is seen in this photo taken November 2011. Ochlik and American correspondent Marie Colvin were killed on Wednesday, Feb. 22, in the besieged Syrian city of Homs when rockets fired by government forces hit the house they were staying in, opposition activists and witnesses said. (Julien de Rosa/Reuters/File)
American, French journalist killed in Syrian bombardment of Homs (+video)
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As the Syrian city of Homs faced its 19th straight day of a government barrage, residents plead for a reprieve to allow women and children to leave the city and entry for aid convoys, while the Red Cross’s call for a two-hour daily truce received critical backing from Russia.
Moscow, which has been a staunch backer of President Bashar al-Assad, said today that it supported the International Committee of the Red Cross’s call for a daily, brief truce, expressing “serious concern” about the situation in Homs, Agence France-Presse reports.
Assaults across Syria left at least 68 dead yesterday, according to estimates from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The barrage continued today, killing two Western journalists when a shell hit a makeshift media center in the city where they were working, according to AFP. Human rights groups say the death toll since the uprising began in March 2011 is nearing 8,000.
Human Rights Watch told The Christian Science Monitor that videos from Homs indicate that government troops are deploying the Russian-made “Tulip” weapons system, “which fires the largest mortar round in any military’s arsenal” – 240 mm – from up to 12.5 miles away. When the Russians infamously used it during their siege of the Chechen capital in 1999, they killed thousands of civilians. The use of these mortars in “dense urban environments” is a war crime, the Monitor reports.
Many activists in Homs fear the shelling is only a precursor to a ground assault on the city, the BBC reports.
The two journalists killed in Homs were Sunday Times of London reporter Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik. Their deaths were confirmed by the newspaper and the French foreign minister, respectively. Ms. Colvin, an American, was on air with CNN via phone the night before her death. She said Syria “was the worst conflict she had covered,” partly because of the sheer amount of shelling, according to CNN.
In a dispatch for The Sunday Times (paywalled) published over the weekend, Colvin wrote that Homs residents were “waiting for a massacre.” “The scale of human tragedy in the city is immense. The inhabitants are living in terror. Almost every family seems to have suffered the death or injury of a loved one... "On the lips of everyone was the question: 'Why have we been abandoned by the world?'" she wrote.
The Guardian writes that Colvin is considered Britain’s “foremost frontline war reporter” and has twice won the British press award for her foreign correspondent work.
At least two other journalists have been seriously wounded, according to several outlets, although their nationalities and the seriousness of their wounds have been reported differently by each.
The unrelenting nature of the assault on Homs coincides with the Obama administration “dropping” its previously unmovable opposition to arming anti-regime groups, the Associated Press reports. The White House and State Department coordinated their announcements that “additional measures” may be coming if a political solution remains out of reach.
“We don’t want to take actions that would contribute to the further militarization of Syria because that could take the country down a dangerous path,” White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters. “But we don’t rule out additional measures if the international community should wait too long and not take the kind of action that needs to be taken.”
The administration has previously said flatly that more weapons are not the answer to the Syrian situation. There had been no mention of “additional measures.”
Meanwhile, in addition to backing Red Cross assistance, Russia has also proposed the dispatch of a UN special envoy to the country to oversee humanitarian efforts, the Associated Press reports – the strongest move against Assad that Russia has so far taken. It has steadily provided arms to the regime throughout the uprising, selling $1 million worth of arms to the country in 2011, according to Reuters.
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Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi (r.) and his Omani counterpart Yousef bin Alawi attend a joint news conference in Tehran on Tuesday, Feb. 21. (Raheb Homavandi/Reuters)
IAEA nuclear experts visit Iran - but no nuclear sites
• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.
UN nuclear inspectors in Iran will not visit any nuclear sites during their two-day visit, the Iranian foreign minister said today.
Ramin Mehmanparast said that the team was made up of “experts” – not inspectors, as they have been described in news reports – and that they were there for discussions that would lay the groundwork for negotiations between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding the country’s nuclear program, the Associated Press reports.
Iran views its nuclear program – which it insists is for peaceful purposes only – as a “non-negotiable right,” Agence France-Presse reports. The implication is that Iran will not give up its nuclear program, although it may consent to some controls or limits on it.
Iranian state radio reported yesterday that the IAEA team asked to visit the Parchin military complex, suspected of being the site of covert weapon development, and to meet nuclear scientists, according to the Associated Press. The IAEA visit less than a month ago also did not include a visit to any Iranian nuclear sites.
In recent weeks, the tone of discussions about a military strike have escalated. An Iranian military leader warned today that Iran would stage a preemptive attack if it felt an attack on its nuclear program was imminent, Reuters reports.
“Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,” said Mohammed Hejazi, the deputy armed forces head, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency.
The New York Times describes the recent heightened rhetoric as “a poker game with potentially lethal stakes, as both Iran and its adversaries maneuver for advantage with no way of knowing their opponent’s ultimate intentions.”
As the US and Britain have attempted to dissuade Israel from considering a strike, the Iranian government has boasted of improvements to its nuclear enrichment capabilities, according to the Times. Last week it announced that it was now using domestically produced fuel rods and had installed 3,000 new centrifuges.
Britain's Parliament yesterday debated a motion that would rule out a British strike on Iran, but Foreign Secretary William Hague spoke strongly against it, saying it would “boost Iran’s confidence” and make it more likely that Israel would attack.
Meanwhile, US officials have given interviews to American journalists in recent weeks criticizing Israel’s consideration of an attack on Iran – angering Israeli officials, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports.
Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey told CNN on Feb. 19 that it would be “destabilizing” and “not prudent” to launch an attack at this time and said the US has so far been unsuccessful at persuading Israel to give up the possibility of an attack on Iran.
Israel has indicated that if the US wants it to stop making such preparations, the US needs to increase pressure on Iran further. "We made it clear that if we don't increase the pressure on the Iranians now, we might be in a situation in which the question how Iran obtained nuclear weapons would become an issue for commentators and historians," an Israeli official told Haaretz, implying that without more pressure, Iran will achieve weapons capability.
Yesterday, The New York Times published a story laying out the steps necessary for a successful Israeli attack that made it clear current and former US military officials and exports thought it would be an extremely difficult task, although there were admissions that the US might not have full insight into Israel’s capabilities.
Should Israel decide to launch a strike on Iran, its pilots would have to fly more than 1,000 miles across unfriendly airspace, refuel in the air en route, fight off Iran’s air defenses, attack multiple underground sites simultaneously – and use at least 100 planes.
That is the assessment of American defense officials and military analysts close to the Pentagon, who say that an Israeli attack meant to set back Iran’s nuclear program would be a huge and highly complex operation.
…
“All the pundits who talk about ‘Oh, yeah, bomb Iran,’ it ain’t going to be that easy,” said Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, who retired last year as the Air Force’s top intelligence official and who planned the American air campaigns in 2001 in Afghanistan and in the 1991 Gulf War.
As one of many steps to increase pressure on Iran, the European Union agreed in January to impose an embargo on imports of Iranian oil, scheduled to go into effect this summer. In retaliation, Iran announced a ban on oil exports to Britain and France this week and said it might extend the ban to other countries unless they agree to “guarantees of payments, long-term contracts, and a ban on unilateral cancellation of contracts by buyers,” the Associated Press reports.
Iranian oil exports are much more critical to countries such as Spain and Italy, which get one-eighth of their oil from Iran, and Greece, which gets one-third of its oil from Iran, than they are to Britain or France, The New York Times notes.
RELATED: Imminent Iran nuclear threat? A timeline of warnings since 1979.
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