Terrorism & Security

US Army Patriot missile air defense artillery batteries are seen at US Osan air base in Osan, south of Seoul, South Korea, Friday. North Korea has placed two of its intermediate range missiles on mobile launchers and hidden them on the east coast of the country in a move that could threaten Japan or US Pacific bases, South Korean media reported on Friday. (Lee Jae-Won/Reuters)

As prospect of North Korea missile launch rises, some question US response to threats (+video)

By Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer / 04.05.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

After weeks of panicked coverage – phrases such as "tensions ratcheting up," "escalations," "heated rhetoric," "miscalculations" have become ubiquitous in relation to North Korea – some US observers are questioning whether ongoing military drills with South Korea are fueling a crisis substantiated on guesswork.

Media reports and expert commentary have been rife with disclaimers that North Korea is likely some years away from having the technological capability to carry out the nuclear attack that it said earlier this week it had authorized. They also insist that leader Kim Jong-un understands that there is no way the North could win a war with South Korea and the US, and that his priority is maintaing power.

Still, US officials may have little choice but to respond as if Pyongyang is capable of acting on its threats. Today, CNN reports that North Korea appears to be moving missile and launch equipment to a spot on its east coast, and could be planning a "test launch" of a missile with a 2,500-mile range.

Intercepted communications "show that Pyongyang might be planning to launch a mobile ballistic missile in the coming days or weeks," according to Department of Defense officials.

This week, the US announced it would speed up the deployment of a missile-defense system to its base in Guam. It also moved a warship and "radar platform" in the region closer to the North Korean coast and sent stealth fighter jets to its base in South Korea to add them to the mix in annual US-South Korea training exercises, according to a recap from CNN. 

Although the military exercises are routine, they have always raised North Korea's ire – and this year's drills seemed to have more heft than years past, with the addition of B-2 stealth bombers that dropped inert bombs over South Korea, Time notes. 

Now, according to CNN, some in the US are beginning to ask if US reactions to North Korea's threats have exacerbated the situation.

"We are trying to turn the volume down," a Defense Department official told CNN. "We accused the North Koreans of amping things up, now we are worried we did the same thing," one Defense Department official said.

Defending the US position

But State Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland defended US actions, saying "it was the ratcheting of tensions from North Korea that led to the U.S. shoring up its defense posture."

Even though this sort of bombast from Pyongyang has become the norm over the last few decades, this time is different. "The music is the same, but is much louder," Scott Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations told the Monitor. 

So what has changed? North Korean leaders are threatening the US with nuclear weapons – "unheard of a few years ago" – and they have abandoned the North-South hotlines that were supposed to foster reconciliation, according to the Monitor. And the new South Korean leader, Park Geun-hye, is reacting more firmly to Pyongyang's threats than her predecessor. 

Time Magazine attempts to tamp down concerns, writing that Kim Jong-un isn't crazy and has no desire to bring an end to his regime – the almost certain outcome if he does start a war with South Korea or the US. 

It seems paradoxical to say it, given Pyongyang’s almost daily exercises in escalation, but the North Korean leadership almost certainly does not want to go to war. Not that it would flinch at a massive loss of life if it meant propping up the regime. … The problem is that a full-scale conflict would almost certainly mean the destruction of the North Korean state and the likelihood of a violent end for its young leader, Kim Jong-un. 

Like his father before him, Kim is focused on surviving. While the isolated North Korean leadership is sometimes seen as erratic and crazy – a case not helped by Kim’s partying with Dennis Rodman or publishing photos of a map showing strike plans for the continental US – it remains committed to staying in power. It has survived for half a century by avoiding any fights that it can’t win or at least, as with the Korean War, draw to a bloody stalemate. For all its goading, North Korea is unlikely to want to start a doomed conflict now. 

Bloomberg View columnist William Pesek makes a similar case, arguing that military capabilities are not what will determine how this ends – Kim Jong-un's desire for power is.

Rather than obsess over his nuclear capabilities, the firepower of his adjectives or the amount of foam at his mouth, let’s consider what Kim is up to. After barely a year running the family business, the Kim Dynasty, the Swiss-educated 30-ish dictator still has a bunch of trigger-happy generals looking over his shoulder. He’s showing them he’s every bit as macho as his dad, the now-deceased Kim Jong Il, if not more.

…

It is always possible that Kim has suicidal tendencies. But what has the Kim Dynasty, through three generations, spent every waking moment doing? Staying in power and keeping the world out. The idea that Kim and his cronies see any upside to squeezing off a missile, knowing it would spell the end of North Korea, is the stuff of Tom Clancy novels, not realpolitik. 

And one last reality check from David Kang, co-author of "Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies," in Bloomberg Businessweek:

North Korea can destroy Seoul tomorrow if it chooses, so that’s a real threat. Deterrence has held for 60 years because both sides realize the costs of a real war: Seoul would be destroyed, and North Korea would cease to exist. For all the hype about the last few months of chest-thumping and muscle-flexing, it’s important to remember two things: First, if you read the North Korean statements in full, they are all saying “IF the U.S./ROK attack us first, we will fight back,” (not “we will attack you first,” which is often how they are interpreted), and second, we believe them. That’s why there are no preemptive strikes on North Korea.

In this 2006 file photo, the leader of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) Joseph Kony answers journalists' questions following a meeting with UN humanitarian chief Jan Egeland at Ri-Kwangba in southern Sudan. (Stuart Price/AP/File)

Hunt for Kony becomes a casualty of Central African Republic overthrow (+video)

By Whitney Eulich, Staff writer / 04.04.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

African troops in the Central African Republic suspended their long hunt for warlord Joseph Kony following a rebel overthrow of the president there last month, a top Ugandan military official said.

Some fear the move could serve as a dangerous lifeline allowing Mr. Kony and his Lord’s Resistance Army to regroup, and could wreck havoc on a country already facing a government taken by force.

Rebels in the Central African Republic (CAR) deposed the president there more than a week ago, and the country’s membership in the African Union has been suspended. The Associated Press reports that the AU mission has been put on hold until the troops’ mandate there is clarified, with African forces retreating to military bases within CAR.

"These rebels have been openly hostile to us and following that, the president [of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni] has ordered us only to be in defensive positions," Dick Olum, head of Ugandan troops in the force hunting Kony and also the overall force commander, told Reuters. "So we've temporarily suspended offensive operations against the LRA for now until we receive further orders." 

Yesterday, the United States listed Kony as a wanted war criminal, and issued a bounty of more than $5 million for information leading to his capture. About 100 US advisers have been a part of the mission to find Kony in central Africa since 2011. [Read more about the US involvement here.]

According to The Wall Street Journal the decision to pull back 3,000 African Union troops, the majority of which are Ugandan, is a setback for the mission and puts CAR at heightened risk for violence.

More broadly, it feeds into gathering worries that the mineral-rich but poor country is at risk of becoming ungovernable and vulnerable to drug traffickers, criminal groups or terrorist organizations that could threaten security well beyond its borders—a fate similar to one that has befallen Somalia and Mali.

Kasper Agger agrees. He works for a US-based Enough Project, which has followed the violence wreaked by Kony and the LRA across central Africa. He told the AP that it would be a “catastrophe for civilians in the Central African Republic" if the African troops left the country.

"All the top commanders of the LRA are in the Central African Republic. That is where the center of gravity of the operations should be,” Mr. Agger said. “This will only give the LRA a new safe haven."

The LRA is believed to be about 250-men strong today, but they typically travel through the jungle in smaller groups – always moving – in order to remain inconspicuous.

Kony took up arms in Uganda the late 1980s, in what he said was an effort to protect the Acholi people in the north from President Yoweri Museveni’s troops in the south. Close to 2 million people were displaced and forced into camps at the height of the conflict, reports Agence France-Presse. In the mid-1990s Kony’s LRA splintered into neighboring countries, including Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

According to The Christian Science Monitor, the accusations against Kony and the damage he has caused to communities across central Africa are severe and widespread:

Accused of kidnapping at least 30,000 children as porters, soldiers, and sex slaves since he launched his insurgency on behalf of northern Uganda’s Acholi people against the mainly southern Ugandan Army of President Yoweri Museveni in 1988; accused of forcing children to murder their own parents in order to break ties to their home communities; accused of mass murder of perhaps 100,000 people and feeding his army through pillage; [by 2006] Kony had already been labeled a mass murderer by human rights groups and as a terrorist by the US government.

In 2005, Kony became the first person indicted by the International Criminal Court, facing 33 charges that include murder, rape, and kidnapping children, reports a separate Monitor story.

Last year an online video produced by the non-profit Invisible Children went viral, calling for the capture of Kony. The video had “phenomenal success,” in raising awareness about Kony and the LRA, and the Twitter hashtag #stopykony was widespread. But the project was simultaneously hailed for driving youth toward activism and criticized for oversimplifying the multitude of issues surrounding the LRA’s history in Africa, reports The Monitor.

On a US State Department blog yesterday, Secretary of State John Kerry said:

Kony and his cronies have eluded capture for years. The LRA is broken down into small bands of rebels, scattered throughout dense jungle, hidden by dense canopy, controlling territory through tactics of fear and intimidation. We know they will not be easy to find.

But we know that rewards have a proven track record of generating tips that help authorities find fugitives and hold them accountable -- just look at the example of criminals and butchers from conflicts in Sierra Leone, the former Yugoslavia, and Rwanda, all brought to justice in part through the use of rewards.

Mr. Kerry issued a similar bounty for a war criminal associated with the Rwandan genocide, and reminded readers that there are outstanding bounty offers on other suspected war criminals as well. 

A Palestinian woman holds a portrait of Maisara Abu Hamdiyeh during a rally in Gaza City, Tuesday. Abu Hamdiyeh who was serving a life sentence for his role in a foiled attempt to bomb a busy cafe in Jerusalem in 2002, died Tuesday of cancer in an Israeli jail. Tensions are high in Israeli lockups where thousands of Palestinian security prisoners are being held. (Hatem Moussa/AP)

Palestinian prisoners go on hunger strike en masse to protest inmate's death

By Arthur Bright, Staff writer / 04.03.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Thousands of Palestinian prisoners began a planned three-day hunger strike this morning in protest of the death of a Palestinian inmate who died of cancer yesterday, while in Israeli custody.

The Palestine News Network writes that some 4,500 Palestinian prisoners sent back their food this morning as part of a protest over the death of Maisara Abu Hamdiyeh, a 64-year-old Hamas member who was diagnosed with esophageal cancer in February. The Palestinian establishment widely blames his death, the cause of which has not yet been conclusively determined, on Israel for failing to provide him with adequate care, reports Haaretz.

"The Israeli refusal to address our appeals to release [Abu Hamdiyeh] led to a deterioration in his condition," Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said. "We turned to many countries and to the international community to act on behalf of the Palestinian prisoners but Israel did not sway from its position."

The Palestinian Prisoners' Committee also accused Israeli authorities of intentionally and negligently delaying treatment for Abu Hamdiyeh. 

But Israel's Prison Service said that it had done all it could for Abu Hamdiyeh since he was diagnosed in February, including transferring him to the Soroka University Medical Center in Beersheba and beginning the process to grant him an early release, the Jerusalem Post reports. 

“The [release] board held one discussion on the matter and was supposed to hold another one this week,” said Gondar Nasim Sabiti, a Prisons Service district commander.

The Christian Science Monitor reports from Gaza that Abu Hamdiyeh's death also spurred a rare public protest in Gaza by Hamas's armed wing, which has been keeping a low profile.

Supporters gathered at a local mosque at dusk, armed gunmen from the Qassam Brigades spilling out of at least five pick-up trucks to kick off the march in a rare public appearance since the November cease-fire.

They were followed by several thousand supporters on foot, from elderly men limping along to bands of rowdy children. With the death of Hamdiyeh and [Arafat Jaradat, a prisoner who died last month – allegedly due to Israeli torture, according to Palestinians] and several prominent Palestinian prisoners on very prolonged hunger strikes, the prisoner issue has garnered the attention of both Fatah and Hamas officials in recent months.

Supporters of both factions are particularly irritated that Israel has rearrested prisoners like Jaradat who were released as part of the prisoner swap to secure the release in 2011 of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was kidnapped and held in Gaza for several years.

The Ma'an News Agency adds that Hebron and East Jerusalem "shut down" as part of a general strike in mourning of his death.

Abu Hamdiyeh had been serving a life sentence after being convicted of several crimes, including attempted murder in connection with a 2002 bombing plot. An autopsy is scheduled for today, and his funeral is set to take place tomorrow.

The prison protests come amid signs that the November ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is weakening. Yesterday and today, there was an exchange of fire between Israel and Gaza, as Israeli warplanes carried out an airstrike in northern Gaza and several Palestinian rockets were fired, hitting near Sderot, in response.  No injuries were reported from either attack, reports CBS News.

Members of Myanmar Red-Cross team and Muslims gather outside a mosque after a fire broke out Tuesday, in Yangon, Myanmar. A fire engulfed a mosque housing Muslim schoolchildren in Myanmar's largest city Tuesday, killing at least 13. (Khin Maung Win/AP)

Myanmar fire kills 13 Muslim students, adding to Buddhist-Muslim tensions

By Whitney Eulich, Staff writer / 04.02.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Myanmar police say an electric fire is at fault for the blaze that killed 13 youth in an Islamic school in Yangon today. But on the heels of widespread religious and ethnic violence last month, some fear the deaths could add to the rising religious tensions in the Buddhist-majority country.

There have been no immediate reports of violence following the pre-dawn fire, but an estimated 200 people crowded around the school compound as security forces and riot police blocked the roads leading to the charred mosque. The fire broke out in the multi-ethnic neighborhood just before 3 a.m. local time, according to neighbors.

"The whole country is worried now for Yangon, and is wondering whether this was a crime," Ye Naung Thein, secretary of the Muslim organization Myanmar Mawlwy federation, told Agence France-Presse.

A teacher in the building told AFP he smelled petrol as he rushed to alert sleeping children of the blaze. But electrical problems are the frequent cause of fires in Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city and former capital, Reuters reports.

Last month, violence between Buddhists and Muslims erupted in the center of the country and quickly spread to 15 towns and villages before the government ordered a crackdown. The Associated Press reports that dozens of people were killed and more than 12,000 were displaced by the unrest in the central city of Meikhtila.

The violence, which has largely targeted Muslims, has since spread to several other towns where extremist Buddhist mobs have torched or ransacked mosques and Muslim-owned property.

The New York Times described the events in Meikhtila last week, painting a jarring picture of religious violence. It included accounts of complacent security officials, “saffron-robed monks with sticks and knives – hunting down Muslims and torching entire blocks, including at least five mosques, in Muslim neighborhoods,” and local Muslims stabbing to death a monk traveling between villages. The violence was spurred on by a petty argument between a Muslim jeweler and a Buddhist customer over a gold clip, the Times reports.

It took the government three days to declare a state of emergency and send in the army. That did stop the violence in Meiktila, but since then attacks against mosques and Muslims’ property have continued to spread across the country.

More than a week after the violence started, just this Thursday, President Thein Sein explained that government forces had been ordered not to intervene because he did not want to “risk any possible endangerment of our ongoing democratic transition and reform efforts.”

The Christian Science Monitor reported that last month’s violence “calls into question the stability of Myanmar’s nascent transition to democracy” after a semi-civilian government ended nearly 50 years of military rule in 2010.

Many international observers are concerned by the country's apparent lack of progress on improving minority rights.

"Governments are meant to guarantee rights, ensure that people are treated equally before the law, that nondiscrimination is the rule of the land, and that minorities have their rights protected," Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch told The Monitor. "After seeing this [violence in Meikhtila], would anyone be confident in saying that the government is doing a good job?"

Eric Randolph, a security specialist, noted in Foreign Affairs early last month that governments around the globe may have reason to turn a blind eye to the ongoing ethnic violence.

Governments worldwide have strategic reasons to ignore the ongoing violence in Myanmar. China is concerned about conflict on its border but has about $14 billion of investments tied up in the country, including new oil and gas pipelines that are due to start operation in May. The United States’ primary goal, meanwhile, has been to ensure that Myanmar does not nuclearize, a pressing worry after reports emerged in 2010 that the country was trading technology with North Korea. The removal of sanctions and increased diplomatic exchanges are also factors in Obama’s pivot to Asia, while other countries are focused on the lucrative new marketplace that has suddenly appeared.

In its rush to capitalize on Myanmar’s tentative opening, the international community has given up much of its leverage over [President] Sein. It ought to remember that he is not vulnerable to a coup by hard-liners – he is the handpicked successor of Than Shwe, fulfilling a plan that was many years in the making – and that his government is desperate for foreign investment. Now is the time to press for clearer commitments to reconciliation and democracy, not for handing out peace awards. 

Some witnesses in Yangon said the doors at the mosque in today’s incident may have been locked and windows barred for security purposes after the string of anti-Muslim attacks last month – though that violence largely avoided Yangon.

"These children were about 13 or 14 years old. They died because they couldn't jump out of the windows, which were closed by iron bars," Ye Naung Thein, a bystander, told Reuters.

A police officer on the scene repeatedly said the fire was caused by an electrical short, not malefic intent. But each time he noted the “electrical short,” “angry Muslims shouted and began banging on vehicles with their fists,” reports AP.

The fire department in Yangon said it would set up an investigative team to determine the ultimate source of the fire, and that the team will include representatives from the electric company, police, and Muslim groups, Reuters reports.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (l.) speaks during a plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang March 31 in this picture released by the North's official KCNA news agency on April 1. (KCNA/REUTERS)

Reality check? North Korean parliamentary session shifts tone

By Arthur Bright, Staff writer / 04.01.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

North Korea began its annual spring parliamentary session on Monday amid ongoing tensions in the region between Pyongyang, Seoul, and Washington. But in a sign that North Korea might be taking a more realistic approach than its belligerence would suggest, the ruling party declared that a stronger economy remained a top goal of the country, along with expanding its nuclear arsenal.

In recent weeks, North Korea has kept up a steady stream of threats against the United States and South Korea, including plans to "cut off" hot lines to the South and to launch military strikes against the US mainland. Pyongyang has also proclaimed that it would never yield its nuclear weapons under any circumstances. But the parliamentary focus on economic reform suggests that the North may not be as obsessed with its own paranoia as its propaganda suggests.

The Associated Press writes that "there has been a noticeable shift in North Korea's rhetoric to a message that seeks to balance efforts to turn around a moribund economy with nuclear development."

"There was a danger that this was getting to the point ... of a permanent war footing," said John Delury, a North Korea analyst at Seoul's Yonsei University. "In the midst of this tension and militant rhetoric and posturing, Kim Jong-un is saying, Look, we're still focused on the economy, but we're doing it with our nuclear deterrent intact."

As further evidence to that end, the North has not yet followed through on its threat to close the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a site inside North Korea where South Korean companies and managers oversee manufacturing performed by North Korean workers.  South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper reports that the site remained open on Monday, despite Pyongyang's threat on Saturday that it "will be mercilessly shut down" unless South Korea stops "damaging our dignity."

Chosun Ilbo notes that while a North Korean spokesman said shuttering the complex would most injure South Korean businesses, in fact the complex is a critical lifeline for the North. 

[If the complex were closed,] the regime would have to relinquish some $87 million a year it makes from the wages of 54,000 North Korean workers there. A worker makes an average of $134 a month, but most of it goes straight into the regime's coffers.

And the families of North Korean workers as well as some 250,000-300,000 residents in Kaesong and surrounding areas would be heavily affected. "If the water that is pumped into the city via the industrial complex is shut off, the locals will have to start digging wells," said a government official here.

The North Korean moves – or lack thereof – come as both the US and South Korea have appeared to be upping their shows of strength in the region. 

DailyNK reports that South Korean President Park Geun-hye Monday told senior officials that "If any provocations happen to our people and our country, it should  respond powerfully in the early stage without any political consideration."

"As commander in chief of the armed forces, I will trust the military's judgment on abrupt and surprise provocations by North Korea, as it is the one that directly faces off against them," she added. "Please carry out your duty of guarding the safety of the people without the slightest distraction."

Reuters also notes that the South has changed its military policies to allow a quicker and more retributive response to North Korean aggression:

The South has changed its rules of engagement to allow local units to respond immediately to attacks, rather than waiting for permission from Seoul.

Stung by criticism that its response to the shelling of a South Korean island in 2010 was tardy and weak, Seoul has also threatened to target North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and to destroy statues of the ruling Kim dynasty in the event of any new attack, a plan that has outraged Pyongyang.

And the US sent a squadron of F-22 fighters to the region in the latest apparent display of aerial military technology amid ongoing Seoul-Washington war games in the region – war games that have provoked strong protests from the North. Time writes that "It’s almost as if the U.S. Air Force has moved a branch of the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum to South Korea," as in recent weeks the US Air Force has flown "Eisenhower-era B-52s," "Reagan-era B-2s" and "George W. Bush-era F-22s" over the Korean Peninsula.

North Koreans punch the air during a rally at Kim Il Sung Square in downtown Pyongyang, North Korea, Friday. Tens of thousands of North Koreans turned out for the mass rally at the main square in Pyongyang in support of their leader Kim Jong-un's call to arms. (Jon Chol Jin/AP)

North Korea's Kim Jong-un issues fresh round of threats (+video)

By Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer / 03.29.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

US military drills in South Korea have prompted a fresh round of threats from North Korea, with leader Kim Jong-un ordering that the military be on standby to hit the US mainland with missiles.

There's little concern that North Korea actually can target the US at the moment. What worries many is that the combination of the North's bellicose rhetoric, actions like its severing of a hotline, and Seoul's vow of retaliation, may be creating an environment where a serious misstep is possible. 

As the Associated Press, which has a bureau in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, notes, most experts share the belief that North Korea is "years away" from nuclear-tipped missiles that could reach the US. Some even say there is no evidence it has conventional missiles that could do that.

But three naval clashes between the North and South since 1999, recent vows of retaliation from Seoul, and Pyongyang's possession of missiles capable of reaching both South Korea and Japan paint a picture of how smaller-scale clashes could easily happen, either deliberately or because of a misjudgment. The situation is also ripe for escalation, according to the AP.

"The North can fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul in the first hour of a conflict," Victor Cha and David Kang wrote for Foreign Policy earlier this week.

NBC News reports that the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency wrote that the “opportunity for peacefully settling the [The Democratic People's Republic of Korea]-US relations is no longer available as the US opted for staking its fate. Consequently, there remains only the settlement of accounts by a physical means.” 

Today's fighting words from Mr. Kim were prompted by a flyover in South Korea yesterday by American B-2 stealth bombers, which dropped dummy munitions. Similar threats were made earlier this week, but were not attributed to the leader, which adds weight to the most recent threats, The New York Times reports.

Following the practice drill, North Korean media released a photo of Kim Jong-un meeting with military officials with a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target the US mainland" on the wall behind them, according to CNN. The map appeared to have lines stretching from North Korea to various points in the US, indicating missile paths.

As CNN makes clear, much of the hostility comes down to different interpretations of the motivations behind US military preparation in the region:

The North Korean state news agency described the [B-2 bombers] mission as "an ultimatum that they (the United States) will ignite a nuclear war at any cost on the Korean Peninsula."

The North has repeatedly claimed that the exercises are tantamount to threats of nuclear war against it.

But the US military stressed that the bombers flew in exercises to preserve peace in the region.

South Korean defense officials and media reported a "surge in vehicle and troop movements at North Korean missile units in recent days," as the US and South Korea held the joint military drills, according to The New York Times article. “We believe they are taking follow-up steps,” said defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok. "South Korean and American intelligence authorities are closely watching whether North Korea is preparing its short, medium, and long-range missiles, including its Scud, Rodong and Musudan.”

As a US official told NBC News, it is Kim's inexperience as a leader that may be the biggest threat. “North Korea is not a paper tiger so it wouldn't be smart to dismiss its provocative behavior as pure bluster. What's not clear right now is how much risk Kim Jong Un is willing to run to show the world and domestic elites that he's a tough guy,” said the official, who asked not to be named. “His inexperience is certain – his wisdom is still very much in question.”

The Christian Science Monitor reported earlier this week that little is understood about Kim Jong-un, or the way the country functions under his leadership.

Kim is still a very young dictator, said to be 30, and is consolidating his power and style. North Korea is for outsiders a dense black box; it is not always clear whom the Kim regime’s threats are meant to satisfy. There are generals who want to see young Kim continue the “military first” policy of his father and grandfather. There is an ongoing need to keep the woeful problems faced daily by ordinary North Koreans, particularly those outside the carefully constructed and supposedly racially-pure world of Pyongyang, at bay, and to ensure that the masses continue in the standard patriotic stupor that is the bedrock of stability in the Kim dynasty.

One theory making the rounds among DPRK watchers is that Kim created internal joy in Pyongyang with a successful cyberattack on banks and websites in South Korea last week, and the threats are an effort to keep that happy ball rolling.

Complicating a response to Pyongyang's threats "is that while threats are a stock in trade for Pyongyang, defense establishments have to take all threats with some modicum of seriousness," The Monitor notes.

Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin talks on the phone before an interview in Kabul March 27, 2013. The Afghanistan government is shocked by Pakistan's "complacency" in the nascent Afghan peace process and is ready to work without Islamabad's help on reconciliation, the deputy foreign minister told Reuters on Wednesday. (Mohammad Ismail/REUTERS)

Pakistan: Afghanistan 'overreacting' in pulling out of military visit

By Whitney Eulich, Staff writer / 03.28.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Pakistan accused Afghanistan of overreacting when it pulled out of a military visit to its neighbor this week – a cancellation that puts added strain on an already tense relationship and presents another hurdle to the Afghan peace process.

The Army in Pakistan had invited more than 10 Afghan officers to participate in military drills in Quetta, in Pakistan's southwest. But the officers refused to come after what the Afghan government called “unacceptable Pakistani shelling” across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Scores of shells were fired into Afghanistan on Monday and Tuesday, and have been followed by “days of angry diplomatic exchanges,” reports Reuters. Such incidents have occurred sporadically across the Durand Line, the British-drawn border that Pakistan acknowledges but which Afghanistan disputes. 

"We believe that Afghanistan overreacted to a small incident," a foreign ministry spokesman told Agence France-Presse, adding that its "disciplined and responsible" troops had responded to what it called "some intrusions from the Afghan side."

The altercation comes just days after US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Afghanistan to complete the handoff of the Bagram military prison. The Afghan war is now in its 12th year and more than half of the 66,000 American forces will withdraw from the country by 2014, reports The New York Times.

According to The Christian Science Monitor, Mr. Kerry and President Hamid Karzai “held a rosy news conference” where they discussed US-Afghan relations, which have also been strained in recent weeks by Afghan government accusations that the US is supporting the Taliban.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have long traded blame for the Taliban violence that has plagued their shared border, and last month there was a sense of hope for cooperation after a trilateral meeting with British leaders.

The gathering was “billed as a success after it ended with an optimistic pledge to seek a peace settlement with the Taliban within six months,” reports The Wall Street Journal.    

In reality, senior Afghan officials now say, Pakistani preconditions made at the summit — and rejected as unacceptable by Kabul — have set off a new crisis between the two neighbors. “What we ask from Pakistan is to prove that that country wants peace and stability in Afghanistan,” Mr. Karzai’s chief of staff, Abdel Karim Khurram, said in an interview.

Pakistani officials said they set no preconditions and that their government supports a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.

Pakistan was the Taliban’s crucial supporter during the 1990s civil war, and US and Afghan officials say the insurgency’s leadership is still operating from Pakistani shelters.

One Pakistani official this week told Mr. Karzai he was blocking opportunities for peace and taking his country “straight to hell,” reports Reuters. Afghanistan responded such words were part of “a failed propaganda attempt” to push a historic transition off course.

Although Pakistan’s cooperation is seen as crucial to a successful peace process in Afghanistan, for the first time this week Afghan officials signaled they may be ready to “go it alone,” reports a separate Reuters story.

Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin told Reuters that Afghanistan planned to use senior Taliban officials "recently handed over by the United States in Bagram prison to urge militants to pursue peace.”

Mr. Ludin acknowledged the critical role Pakistan plays and noted that Afghanistan would still welcome its support. But, he said, "[we] here in Kabul are in a bit of a state of shock at once again being confronted by the depth of Pakistan's complacency, we are just very disappointed." 

"The sad reality is though Pakistan still remains the most important missing link in this whole vision that we have," Lundin said.

In an editorial in Pakistan’s The Nation, the very same language and themes were repeated.

Afghanistan is not only Pakistan’s neighbour, but is also closely and inextricably linked to it in more than one ways….

Vietnamese fishing boats are seen near Da Tay island in the Spratly archipelago in January. (Quang Le/Reuters)

Flares, gunshots, and fires, oh my: The latest South China Sea accusations fly (+video)

By Arthur Bright, Staff writer / 03.27.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

China has denied Hanoi's accusations that it fired upon a Vietnamese fishing boat last week near the Paracel Islands as "sheer fabrication," and claims that its patrol vessel only fired flares and did not damage the boat.

Beijing said yesterday that despite Vietnamese accusations that the fishing vessel was fired upon and its cabin "burned down" during a confrontation last week near the Paracels, which both China and Vietnam lay claim to, the Chinese patrol vessel's actions were "necessary and legitimate," reports state newspaper the China Daily.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Xisha Islands [the Chinese name for the Paracels] and their adjacent waters, and the Vietnamese fishing boat entered the waters for "illegal fishing operations".

"According to confirmation by relevant parties, no harm was done to the Vietnamese ship at that time and place," Hong said.

An unnamed Chinese navy official goes further, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reports, calling the Vietnamese description of events a "sheer fabrication" that "revealed the ulterior motives of the relevant Vietnamese authorities." 

Staff aboard the Chinese patrolling vessel tried repeatedly to persuade and demand the Vietnamese boats to leave by whistle blowing, shouting and handflag guiding, but all failed.

Then the Chinese vessel fired into the sky two warning signal shells, which burned out and extinguished in the air.

There is no such things [sic] that Chinese vessel fired with weapons or the Vietnamese boats caught fire, said the official.

This is just the latest event in an ongoing dispute between Vietnam and China over islands in the South China Sea. China claims to have historical territorial rights over the entire sea, but Vietnam, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and several other nations each lay claim to various islands within the region – including the Paracels and the Spratleys, which Vietnam claims.

The Vietnamese government publicized the issue on Monday, saying that the Chinese vessel illegally chased and fired upon the Vietnamese vessel as it fished in what Thanh Nien News called its "traditional fishing grounds" in the Hoang Sa Archipelago, the Vietnamese name for the Paracels.

"This is an extremely serious issue, violating Vietnam's sovereignty over Hoang Sa Archipelago, threatening the lives and damaging properties of Vietnamese fishermen," [Foreign ministry spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi] said.

"This has seriously violated international laws and agreements on basic principles in solving sea issues between Vietnam and China, and is counter to the Declaration of Parties in the [South China] Sea (DOC)."

Radio Free Asia reports that Pham Quang Thanh, the captain of the fishing boat, said that "When we saw the vessel from afar, we left right away. But after about 30 to 40 minutes, they were already right behind us."

“I tried to head east to get away, but they were close to us, and they started shooting at us,” Thanh said.

Thanh then ran inside the boat’s cabin, he said.

“I heard four explosions and found that the boat’s cabin was on fire, and I called everybody to put out the fire with sea water.”

His Chinese attackers had meanwhile left, eventually halting about five or six nautical miles away, he said.

“They just left. They didn’t show any willingness to help, or even to stop to check on us. They wanted to destroy us.”

Citing an earlier news report, Thanh Nien News describes a similar scene, but names the ship captain as Bui Van Phai, who said his boat collided with the Chinese vessel before the chase began.

The Syrian revolutionary flag, is seen in front of the empty seat of the Syrian delegation during the opening session of the Arab League summit in Doha, Qatar, Tuesday. Syrian opposition representatives took the country's seat at the Arab League summit that opened in Qatar on Tuesday, a significant diplomatic boost for the forces fighting President Bashar al-Assad's regime. (Ghiath Mohamad/AP)

Rebels capture strategic no man's land: Syria's seat at the Arab League

By Whitney Eulich, Staff writer / 03.26.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

In a symbolic move, opponents of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad took the country’s seat at an Arab League summit in Doha today, despite the resignation of the opposition Syrian National Council president on Sunday.

The delegation of opposition leaders included interim Prime Minister Ghassan Hitto; the head of the national council, George Sabra; and Moaz al-Khatib, who, despite stepping down as president of the Syrian National Council after Mr. Hitto’s appointment led today’s delegation in Qatar.

Syria’s membership to the Arab League was suspended in 2011 as a result of the government’s bloody crackdown on the opposition, which began two years ago this month and has claimed the lives of over 70,000 people, according to the United Nations.

The “decision for the opposition to take Syria's seat was made at the recommendation of Arab foreign ministers,” The Associated Press reports.

After being met by applause, Mr. Khatib thanked the presidents, kings, and emirs in the audience for their recognition of the opposition at the two-day summit.

"It is part of the restoration of legitimacy that the people of Syria have long been robbed of," Khatib said.

When Khatib addressed the summit he opened by painting a dire picture of Syria’s reality today: a quarter of the population displaced and tens of thousands dead, reports Al Jazeera. He asked for more support from Arab and Western leaders, calling on the United States to implement NATO Patriot missiles to defend rebel-held areas from President Assad’s airpower, Reuters reports.

The Syrian government spoke out against the opposition’s presence at the summit today, saying that by inviting them, the Arab League was legitimizing “terrorist acts that are committed overtly and blatantly against the Syrians, their institutions and properties," said an editorial in the government newspaper Al-Thawra, the AP reports.

The Assad government also accused the Arab League of trying to cozy up to Israel and the US: "The Arab League has blown up all its charters and pledges to preserve common Arab security, and the shameful decisions it has taken against the Syrian people since the beginning of the crisis and until now have sustained our conviction that it has exchanged its Arab identity with a Zionist-American one,” the editorial said.

Arab world split

Reuters reports that in an opening speech the Qatari emir pushed for the UN to put an end to the “oppression and repression of the people” of Syria.

The war in Syria has divided world powers, paralyzing action at the Security Council. The Arab world is also split, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar the most fervent foes of Assad, and Iraq, Algeria and Lebanon the most resistant to calls for his removal.

It is not only international powers that are divided, however. As The Christian Science Monitor noted yesterday, divisions between the political and militarized branches of Syria’s opposition are being strained, as well.

The disconnect between the military on the ground in Syria and the politicians of the council was further exposed by the [Free Syrian Army]'s rejection of the council's appointment of Ghassan Hitto to the office of provisional prime minister. AFP reports that the FSA's leaders announced that they do not recognize Mr. Hitto's appointment, saying they "cannot recognize a prime minister who was forced on the National Coalition, rather than chosen by consensus," according to FSA media coordinator Louay Muqdad….

Hitto's appointment also appears to have prompted the council's president to resign. Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, a former imam of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, on Sunday announced his resignation as the president of the Syrian National Council, reports Reuters. Mr. Khatib, a moderate Sunni who in recent weeks had called for negotiations with members of the Assad regime to end the Syrian civil war, saw his influence limited by the appointment of Hitto, an Islamist-leaning technocrat backed by Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The council has not accepted Khatib’s resignation, and has asked him to reconsider. Reuters reports that Khatib publicly said it was the lack of international failure to support an armed revolt against Assad that led to his resignation. In light of the reception of Khatib and the opposition delegation at the Arab League summit, The Guardian’s Ian Black said:

If this were Shakespearean drama, or a political soap opera, you might well think that what he [Khatib] is going to do is return to his post [as opposition leader] at the demands of admiring colleagues, who say only he has the ability to steer the Syrian opposition through this crucial and painful period in their history.