Olympics blog

Winter Olympics: Who will win the most medals?

Germany, Canada, and the United States will battle for overall medal title in the Winter Olympics for the foreseeable future. Watch for China to move up the ladder using the same strategy it did in Beijing.

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The recipe for success in these Games will be no different from what it was in Turin, when the US and Canada finished second and third in overall medals, with just one medal separating them: rake in the medals in new sports, and supplement that with improvement in the core European sports.

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That can be seen in America's top winter athletes. Shaun White and Gretchen Bleiler rule the snowboard superpipe. But Lindsey Vonn is the best alpine skier in the world and Todd Lodwick and Bill Demog could each win America's first-ever medal in Nordic combined – which combined ski jumping and cross-country skiing.

Canada shares a similar mix. Mogul skier Jennifer Heil is expected to win Canada's first gold, but the country can also lean on Kristina Groves and Christine Nesbitt in the speedskating oval.

China’s rise mirrors its rise in Beijing. It is expected to dominate sports where it has some history. Chinese women could sweep every gold in short track, and they could also sweep the medals in freestyle aerials – where their strong tradition in gymnastics serves them well.

But they are also attacking sports where the pool of strong competitors is relatively shallow, such as women’s curling.

Here are the sports where the US has the strongest chance of medaling:

• Alpine skiing: women’s downhill, super-G, and combined (Lindsey Vonn); men’s giant slalom (Ted Ligety).

• Freestyle skiing: moguls (Hannah Kearney or Heather McPhie).

• Snowboarding: superpipe (Shaun White, Gretchen Bleiler, Hannah Teter, and Kelly Clark); snowboard-cross (Lindsey Jacobellis and Nate Holland).

• Speedskating: 1000 and 1500 meters (Shani Davis and Chad Hedrick).

• Short track speedskating: 1000 meters (Apolo Anton Ohno).

• Nordic combined: individual and team events (Todd Lodwick and Bill Demong).

• Figure skating: men’s (Evan Lysacek).

• Hockey: women’s.

• Bobsled: men’s (Steven Holcomb).

Mark has been covering the Olympics since 2002, making this his fifth Olympic Games. Keep up with Mark as he tweets throughout the Games.