Netanyahu's Likud party links arms with hardline right ahead of national vote

Leslie Susser, diplomatic correspondent for The Jerusalem Report, says that under the new alliance Netanyahu may give greater weight to some of Lieberman’s initiatives but is likely to be very wary of “moving down the anti-Arab road.”

Curve ball for center-left

The announcement could throw an unexpected wrench in plans for politicians on the left and center of Israel’s political spectrum, whom many expected to form a coalition that could potentially trump Netanyahu at the polls.

But Netanyahu’s surprise move doesn’t necessarily seal his victory, since Mr. Lieberman’s outspoken stances on issues such as Israeli Arabs could be a turn-off for voters who might otherwise have supported the prime minister’s party.

“It would seem that Netanyahu is gambling on not losing too many votes to the center, even though Lieberman is perceived by the center as very far right-wing, even by some … as racist and they would be very loathe to vote for him,” Susser says. “But he’s banking on the fact that this huge, big, new alliance will actually attract voters and show up the left as being very fragmented and not fit to the lead the country.”

Netanyahu has few potential challengers with the combination of experience and popularity that he enjoys. But the left and center have between them a handful of candidates who, if they joined together in a single coalition, could collectively mount a credible challenge against the prime minister. Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who has experience but almost no political base at the moment, could, for example, join forces with Shelly Yachimovich of Labor, whose domestic policies have earned her solid support in certain circles.

“Netanyahu knew that the election's results weren't settled, and so he acted accordingly," said Ms. Yachimovich, according to Haaretz. She appealed to the "many Likud voters who lost a political home today. Tonight they found themselves in a scenario they could have imagined in their worst nightmares – in a party headed by [Avigdor] Lieberman."

Whole bigger than the sum of its parts?

Whether Likud’s merger with Yisrael Beytenu will strengthen its position vis-à-vis the center is an open question.

“It’s really a big question over the numerical advantage of running together,” says Tamar Hermann, a public opinion expert with the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. “Still, it may discourage all other parties in the system. Because again, this would come out as the guaranteed winner and the rest is like kid’s stuff.”

The merger could also lead to complacency among the core voters of Likud and Yisrael Beytenu, leading to lower turnout.

“There is another option that this united party will be considered as the winning party with no challengers around,” says Prof. Hermann, who says that could lead voters to stay home, especially if it is rainy and cold on election day. “This may bring its voters to be less enthusiastic about voting because they will feel [victory] is already in their pocket.”

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