Iran nuclear talks: limited progress as both sides send military 'messages'

Iranian officials also state that they will not stop their most sensitive nuclear work without some relief from the economic sanctions that have grown for years and badly shaken Iran's economy. However, an easing of the sanctions are not among incentives offered by the P5+1 in the proposal.

Despite "opening salvos based on maximalist demands" from both sides, writes Ali Vaez, the senior Iran analyst for the International Crisis Group, prospects of a limited negotiated solution "may not be as bleak as they appear."

"Although the two parties remain poles apart, getting rid of chimerical expectations could be an achievement in itself," says Mr. Vaez, in an analysis published yesterday by the Al Monitor website. "Tehran now knows that the damaging momentum of sanctions cannot be stifled with a few reversible confidence building measures. Similarly, [the P5+1] have realized that while sanctions are taking their toll, they are unlikely to force Iran to compromise."

Threats fly both ways

Still, a European embargo on Iranian oil – the country's economic lifeblood – kicked in in recent days week, as did US measures against oil sales and Iran's central bank. Iran's currency has lost half its value in the last six months; oil exports that once totaled 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) are now down to 1.5 million bpd.

In response to the new sanctions, Iranian lawmakers yesterday proposed closing the Strait of Hormuz – a threat frequently issued in previous years which never came to pass.

And during war games today, Iran's Revolutionary Guard test-fired dozens of missiles, including some medium-range versions that can travel 800 miles, at models of enemy bases, according to Iranian news reports. Iran's longest-range missiles can reach 1,200 miles.

"It is a response to those who speak to Iran using politically impolite remarks and say that all options are on the table," Gen. Hossein Salami was quoted as saying, referring to a common refrain from US and Israeli leaders that indicates military action against Iran is possible.

On the eve of the war games, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Guard's aerospace division, said the exercises would be a message "that the Islamic Republic of Iran is resolute in standing up to... bullying and will respond to any possible evil decisively and strongly."

Any Israeli strike against Iran would mean "they will hand us an excuse to wipe them off the face of the earth," said Gen. Hajizadeh, according to the state news agency IRNA.

On the other side of the equation, the US has "quietly moved significant military reinforcements" into the Persian Gulf in a "long-planned" upgrade that aims to "deter" Iran from any effort to close the Strait of Hormuz and "reassure Israel," The New York Times reported today.

The boost in firepower includes a purpose-built ship designed as a floating operations base that can host US Special Forces; a doubling of minesweeping vessels to eight, and an increased number of jet fighters deployed since late spring capable of striking deeply inside Iran.

"The message to Iran is, 'Don't even think about it," a senior US Defense Department official told the Times. "Don't even think about closing the strait. We'll clear the mines. Don't even think about sending your fast boats out to harass our vessels or commercial shipping. We'll put them on the bottom of the gulf."

The display was also meant to be "tangible proof" to the US allies that Washington's pivot toward Asia would not detract from vigilance in the Mideast, the official told the Times: "This is not only about Iranian nuclear ambitions, but about Iran's regional hegemonic ambitions."

Previous

1 | 2