Assad's actions in Syria spur US to consider intervening

According to political and diplomatic sources in the Middle East and Washington, the Obama administration in recent weeks has come to the the conclusion that the Syria crisis is not going to fizzle out but probably worsen, with serious ramifications for regional security.

“A direct US military intervention does not seem to be there right now,” says Mr. Tabler of the Washington Institute. “But ironically, Assad’s actions have spurred the US into thinking along those terms.”

As such, the Obama administration is reviewing its policies toward Syria. Derek Chollet, the senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council who helped shape Libya policy last year, reportedly has been appointed head of the interagency Syria policy team. He replaces Steve Simon, the NSC senior director for the Middle East and North Africa, who will remain on the team.

Furthermore, Robert Ford, the former US ambassador to Damascus, who won praise in Washington for his outspoken criticism of the Assad regime’s crackdown on protestors before his recall in October when the Obama administration closed the embassy, has been given a greater role on the Syria policy team.

Washington for now has ruled out providing weapons and ammunition to the military units comprising the rebel Free Syrian Army, but US officials say that aid is being delivered to the civilian political opposition.

“We’re going to be pushing some pretty significant non-lethal assistance to the unarmed opposition,” says one US official involved with Syria policy. “Things are actually starting to move.”

Other countries may follow suit

If the US is seen as playing a stronger role in supporting the Syrian opposition it could encourage other countries, in particular Turkey and some Gulf states opposed to the Assad regime, to follow suit, analysts say.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are believed to have been providing funds to some armed opposition groups and the Saudi foreign minister has openly advocated sending weapons to the ill-equipped and poorly armed FSA. But there are no indications that the FSA has received fresh supplies of armaments and it appears to be still dependent on a trickle of weapons smuggled into the country or raiding military arsenals.

Even if arms are dispatched into Syria along with non-lethal equipment such as communications and night-vision goggles, it may not prove enough to tip the balance in the opposition’s favor.

“The case is not made yet whether arming the opposition by itself will be enough to alter the power imbalance between the regime and the rebels in favor of the latter,” says Slim of the Middle East Institute. “It is likely that in order to redress the imbalance, a military intervention to create safe zones will be necessary in addition to arming the opposition.”

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