Will Gaza flotilla raid mark end of Turkey-Israel relations?

Turkey called for an international investigation into the Israeli raid on the Gaza flotilla sent to break the aid blockade. At security meeting in Istanbul today, Turkey positioned itself as a leader in crafting a regional response. Turkey-Israel relations are fraying rapidly.

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Meanwhile, amid mass anti-Israel demonstrations by protesters in Turkey, Israel's anti-terrorism bureau warned to tourists against visiting there. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor canceled a trip to Turkey at the recommendation of the Shin Bet security service, Ynet.com reported.

In Pictures: The Gaza flotilla and the aftermath of the Israeli naval raid

What's at stake

The Turkey-Israel alliance, which began to flower in the late 1990s, had symbolic, strategic, and economic significance to the Jewish state. Israel could hold up its friendship with Turkey as proof that the conflict with Arab neighbors was not about religion. Ties between the defense establishments were so close that the Israeli air force trained in the skies over Turkey and their navies held joint exercises.

But those ties began to fray after the Gaza war in 2009, which destroyed Turkish-mediated peace talks between Israel and Syria just as Turkish officials say they were about to clinch a deal. Then earlier this year, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon humiliated Turkey's ambassador in an on-camera meeting. Pictures of Israeli commandos rappelling onto a Turkish ship were a stark contrast.

Defense contracts for Israeli equipment that once topped $750 million have slowed, though as late as last week Turkey said a $180 million deal for Israeli drones would be unaffected by the diplomatic crisis. Israeli tourism to Turkey dropped by half in 2009 from the previous year to 250,000 visitors, and trade slid to $2.5 billion from $3.5 billion, says Alon Liel, a former Israeli charge d'affaires in Istanbul.

"There's almost nothing left,'' says Mr. Liel.

Israelis have ignored the recent signs a shift in Turkish foreign policy, one that is more oriented toward positioning itself as an international proponent of Muslim interests, says Anat Lapidoth-Frilla, an expert on Israeli-Turkish ties at Hebrew University.

"Some still believe it’s a temporary,'' she said, but "we are going to continue a very stormy relationship in the near period.''