Why some in Israel say the Gaza blockade has failed
Three years after Israel imposed the Gaza blockade to weaken Hamas, some Israeli analysts say it has failed. But Israel sees few other feasible options for containment.
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That leaves the policy of managing the situation with Hamas in Gaza via an unwritten, open-ended truce backed up by a military deterrent (which will be enhanced by Israel's forthcoming Iron Dome intercept system). Both sides observe unspoken rules of nonaggression that yield a measure of calm that is workable on both sides of the border.Skip to next paragraph
In Pictures Palestinian smugglers on the Egypt Gaza border
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"I don't think the blockade hurts [Hamas] that much. Of course it blocks growth and development. In the long run poverty and underdevelopment fuels terrorism, but meanwhile we can't play into the hands of terrorists," says Maj. Gen. Dayan, a former deputy military chief of staff who believes Gaza must be even more isolated to block weapons inflow.
But for now, Israel is tolerating a neighbor which it declared a "hostile entity" that has resumed a weapons build-up with the help of Iran.
Hamas faces critics, complaints, and lack of cash in Gaza
Though Hamas can still lay claim to legitimacy (helped by this week's meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev), it faces an increasingly discontented populace four years after strong voter support brought the group to power in 2006 elections.
Its current modus vivendi in which it has halted rocket fire in return for stability has exposed itself to ridicule from political rivals that it has gone soft on fighting Israel even though Gaza continues to suffer under Israel's blockade.
And even though it remains firmly in power, the failure of Hamas in the last two months to pay in full the salaries of public servants and security officials is a sign that it is being stretched financially. Last week, Arab Bank, the largest banking company in the Arab world, announced a decision to shutter its Gaza branch – one of the last financial links to the outside world. With an economy wholly dependent on external support, some Palestinians have argued that Hamas has taken Gaza down a dead end.
"The reality of Hamas is difficult," says Hani El-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst. "It is besieged, there is no resistance, Egypt has taken a hostile position, there's no prisoner swap [for captured Israeli soldier Sgt. Gilad Shalit], and there's no Arab international recognition."
Still, Hamas has effective veto over peace process
And yet, as long as the status quo persists in Gaza, Hamas has enough political and military power to effectively veto any political agreements reached between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. That may make a convenient argument for those in Israel's right-wing government to fight against the viability of a peace deal. Indirect negotiations, over how to restart talks, picked up this week for the first time since 2008.
For the time being, tolerating Hamas rule in Gaza gives Israel an actor from which to demand security quiet – one which has an interest in preventing domestic chaos. The price is festering violence, a weapons build-up, and the entrenchment of an "emirate'' inspired by the Sunni Islamic Muslim Brotherhood.
"It’s a very long-term process of taming Hamas," says Gidi Grinstein, the president of the Reut Institute, a center left Tel Aviv think tank. "I wouldn't call it a strategy… You could call it a strategy, but I don't think its declared. We can't do it much different."