Could former UN nuclear boss ElBaradei bring democracy to Egypt?

While the majority of those waiting were young people, where ElBaradei has developed a strong following, there were also Egyptians of all ages and people from several different opposition groups. They chanted slogans supporting ElBaradei and against Mr. Mubarak. Many voiced their opposition to the perceived grooming of Mubarak’s son Gamal to succeed his father as president.

Abdelrahman Samir, one of the organizers of the self-appointed “Independent People’s Campaign to Support ElBaradei 2011,” says that ElBaradei was the only viable alternative to Mubarak's son. “ElBaradei is the last chance to change conditions for the people of Egypt,” he says. “If he doesn’t succeed, there is no chance. There is no alternative.”

Potential tipping point

Those are high hopes for a man who Mustapha Kamel Al Sayyid, political science professor at Cairo University and the American University in Cairo, says is unlikely to become a candidate. The regime is completely unwilling to amend the constitution to allow independents to run for president, as it could open the door for Muslim Brotherhood candidates to run for president, he says.

Professor Sayyid says there is a possibility the regime could agree to increased election monitoring, though he doesn't expect it to amount to much, since that would happen through the National Council for Human Rights, whose members are appointed by the government.

Unless ElBaradei’s support increases dramatically, says Sayyid, “there is no reason to believe his presence will change the scene in Egypt in any fundamental way.” He says that ElBaradei’s support is limited, with many Egyptian opposition groups planning to declare their own candidates. And much of ElBaradei’s support comes from loosely-organized groups of young people without large political organizations behind them, he says.

But optimists hope that ElBaradei will stir the stagnant waters of Egyptian politics.

Egyptian democracy and human rights advocate Saad Eddin Ibrahim says he is hopeful that ElBaradei will make a difference in Egypt. “I think with a little bit of resolve on [ElBaradei’s] part, I think we can have another tipping point in 2010, in the sense that the pressure will mount, and Mubarak will have to relent somehow,” he says.

But it is not clear how long ElBaradei will remain in Egypt, and how he will maintain momentum if he leaves. He hinted that his visit will not be permanent in an email, saying, “I will continue, both when I am inside and outside of Egypt, where I still have commitments in the public domain, to push for reform and hope that the government will understand that this is the only way forward and that a peaceful transition is in the interest of all.”

Ahmed Abou Hussein, an avid supporter of ElBaradei’s who started a Facebook page to support his candidacy, says he hopes that the movement inspired by ElBaradei is stronger and wider than just one election.

“People are wondering – will there be an alternative? Will Dr. ElBaradei symbolize a strong opposition? Even if he doesn't run for president, will he be able to get people to unite and make their opinions heard?”

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