US walking a tightrope with its Yemen policy

The US is ramping up military aid to Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, in an effort to go after Al Qaeda linked militants. But too heavy a footprint, analysts warn, could prove a recruiting boon for militants.

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Yet analysts describe layers of interwoven loyalties in Yemen which have coincided with a self-radicalization of militants and a reaction to harsh measures by the government in its myriad conflicts.

“The American government has tried to have this policy mix between development and security,” says a European analyst with long Yemen experience who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of his work. “Unfortunately, the stress has been more on security than development. By the US Agency for International Development targeting certain regions, positive things can come out of this.”

“AQAP has shifted its strategy,” says the analyst. “The [Sept. 2008] attack against the American embassy—symbolically, it is something Al Qaeda can brag about—but inside of Yemen, everyone says, ‘Ok, we might agree with striking Americans, but who was killed? Only Muslims’ This is very bad for them; no one is going to support this.”

“So AQAP has started to strike people working inside security, specific targets that are not directly civilian,” adds the analyst. “That’s why we shouldn’t overrate the threat from Al Qaeda. By overrating it, we are actually strengthening it. Because there is this fertile ground…with strong anti-Americanism, because the government is not delivering, and is increasingly unpopular.”

“The anti-terror issue in Yemen for the government is a kind of resource,” says the analyst. “But the Americans and the West should be cautious not to feed this threat.”

President Barack Obama said he had “no intentions of sending US boots on the ground” to Yemen or Somalia, in an interview with People magazine released on Monday. In countries like Yemen and Somalia, Mr. Obama said: “ I think working with international partners is most effective at this point.”

Gen. David Petraeus, who visited Yemen shortly after the alleged attempt to bring down the US airliner on Christmas Day, said on Sunday that Yemen’s foreigner minister was “quite clear that Yemen does not want to have American ground troops there.” The US “would always want a host nation to deal with a problem itself,” Petraeus told CNN. “We want to help. We’re providing assistance.”

“Some people are cognizant of the pitfalls. But sending Petraeus on a high-profile mission to Yemen, clearly trying to cater to the domestic pressure—what is the Obama administration doing about this?—has a negative impact in Yemen,” says Joost Hiltermann, the deputy director of the Middle East for the International Crisis Group in Washington.

“That’s a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, the American public needs to be reassured that the government is taking the necessary measures,” say s Hiltermann. “On the other…if you are dealing with countries like Yemen or Pakistan, that are extremely fragile, you’ve got to have an extremely light footprint. Because if you go in more heavy-handed, by sending in military advisors and predator strikes and whatnot, you are going to drive a good number of the population into Al Qaeda’s arms.”