Bush struggles with legacy on Mideast peace

But would more time truly have made a difference? Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's departure from political leadership in 2005, and the rise of Hamas in 2006 elections, certainly hurt US efforts here.

But the big problem in recent years, Oren believes, has been the lack of effective leadership on the Israeli and Palestinian sides. "It's fashionable to say Bush missed opportunities and was using the wrong paradigm, but I disagree. The DNA of peacemaking is strong Palestinian and Israeli leadership. And that we don't have."

"If Bush had tried to do more in these circumstances he would have risked further deteriorating the prestige of his presidency," he continues.

Even those who believe that US moves might have once made a difference admit that now – with the Bush administration in its waning days – and the Israeli and Palestinian leaders arguably at their lowest domestic points yet – time has run out.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is mired in scandal and on his way out of office in September. The vicious and deepening split between Palestinian parties Fatah and Hamas continues to undercut the authority of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen).

"There is not enough time to do any work now. None of the players are in any shape to formulate policy and no one has energy to work on this peace process," says Mr. Dajani.

Danny Ayalon, Israel's ambassador to Washington until 2006, agrees: "The only thing we can hope for now is to avoid a complete breakdown in dialogue and keep a small flame going for the next American administration."

"There is absolutely no hope for progress on the peace process at this junction," Mr. Ayalon continues. The name of the game now is just keeping the fragile pieces together and a facade of momentum."

Prisoner release fails to satisfy

Even the release of 198 Palestinian prisoners Monday – as a goodwill measure toward Mr. Abbas – did little to brighten the mood here.

"The idea that this is going to strengthen Abu Mazen in any substantial way is a big mistake," says Meital. "There will be celebrations, yes, but the day after, nothing significant will remain and it will not move dialogue forward."

The unilateral prisoner release could actually backfire, Professor Meital worries, creating more tension between Fatah and Hamas and giving Abbas critics more ammunition to argue that the leader is too cozy with the Israelis. Hamas has been trying to secure a similar prisoner release in exchange for abducted Israeli solider Gilad Shalit, whom they have held since 2006.

And while the release provoked anger among many Israelis – at least two of the prisoners released had killed Israeli citizens – many Palestinians argue the gesture is far from enough. More than 9,000 Palestinian prisoners remain in Israeli jails.

It is unclear if Rice, when her plane takes off Tuesday, will return here as secretary of State. In any case, her visits might have a calming effect on the parties, says Ayalon, but are no longer seen as harbingers of progress.

In fact her arrival here – which not long ago would have easily topped the local news – was met with little attention from the media.

"Now all we can do is wait," Ayalon says. "No matter who wins the US elections, it will take months for the new administration to settle in, and no one expects any changes on the ground here during that time. Basically, we are talking about next summer."

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