NATO scales back in Afghanistan: What does it mean for the U.S.?

Marine General John Allen, who leads NATO forces in Afghanistan, said last month that about a quarter of the attacks can be blamed on the Taliban, both by direct infiltration of Afghan forces and coercion of Afghan troops to attack their NATO counterparts.

Other attacks are attributed to disputes between Afghan troops and their foreign partners, or chalked up to the violence that comes with the trauma of a decade of war.

Whatever the cause, the Taliban insurgency is almost certain to exploit what it sees as a NATO vulnerability as the last American "surge" troops head home.

The attacks have already prompted several coalition members, including France, to speed up or review plans to withdraw troops ahead of the 2014 deadline to send most NATO combat forces home.

Taliban's last gasp?

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, speaking to reporters in Japan on Monday, said the Taliban were resorting to insider attacks as "kind of a last gasp effort" after failing to regain territory they've lost to coalition forces.

Even if that is true, analysts say the obvious political impact that they're having risks emboldening the Taliban, just as Obama brings U.S. troop strength back down to levels before his "surge" of 33,000 forces in 2009-2010.

Jeffrey Dressler, who like Dubik is at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, said he believed the move "could cause an increase in attacks ... because it's proven to be effectual."

The policy change came just three weeks after Allen expressed reluctance to scale back partnering with Afghan forces, which he believed increased personal bonds and made U.S. troops safer.

"What we have learned is that the closer the relationship with them - indeed, the more we can foster a relationship of brotherhood, the more secure that we are," he told Pentagon reporters.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, however, said Allen and other commanders had little choice but to act, as the number of American and coalition casualties rose.

"You have to do it," Rogers told Reuters. "They are not able to stop the turning of these individuals and that's the problem. So now you have to take what steps you need to protect our men and women."

(Additional reporting by Tabassum Zakaria; Editing by Warren Strobel, Mary Milliken and Christopher Wilson)

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