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Iran promise to send nuclear fuel abroad: A major concession?

The real test, caution some, is whether Iran follows through on the tentative nuclear deal that would effectively prevent Tehran from developing a bomb.



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By Dan Murphy Staff writer / October 2, 2009

Thursday's meeting in Geneva on Iran's nuclear program had been framed in such a way that as long as it didn't deteriorate into name-calling and threats it would have been considered a "success." Iran, for its part, had insisted that it wouldn't talk about its own nuclear program ahead of the talks, and hinted instead it was far more interested in regional nuclear disarmament, seeking to put the focus on Israel's possession of nuclear weapons.

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But the meeting produced results that far exceeded the low, low expectations that the US and its negotiating partners – Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany – had set for the event: Iran promised to send most of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad.

Iran's current stockpile of LEU is about 3,200 pounds – more than enough, in theory, to be converted into sufficient highly enriched uranium to produce one nuclear bomb. That fact was disclosed earlier this year, creating concerns among the US and other governments that Iran's nuclear program – which Tehran insists is for peaceful purposes only – was moving ever closer to nuclear-weapon production.

But in what some commentators are calling a vindication of President Barack Obama's willingness to engage directly with Iran, the country promised at the end of the meeting to send "most" of its existing stockpile of LEU – reportedly about 2,600 pounds of the 3,200-pound total – for processing abroad, according to European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

The fuel would be enriched further in Russia, sent on to France for further technical modifications and then be returned to Iran enriched to a level sufficient to help run its small reactor for producing medical isotopes but well below the level required to make a nuclear bomb.

Iran has agreed 'in principle'
The agreement for now is "in principle" and there are no guarantees that Iran will follow through. But if it does, it will mark the first significant step in at least a decade that the country will have taken away from the capacity to make a bomb. On the US side, the demand that Iran give up its enrichment program entirely before progress can be made appears to have been shelved.

Juan Cole, a Middle East expert at the University of Michigan and a sharp Bush critic, borrowed a phrase from online gaming culture in his blog Friday, saying Obama had "pwned" former President Bush and former Vice President Dick Cheney with their "axis of evil" rhetoric. (For an interesting side-story on the word 'pwn' and how it came to be, see the Urban Dictionary.)

"Obama... got more concessions from Iran in 7 1/2 hours than the former administration got in 8 years of saber-rattling,'' writes Dr. Cole, though he added "the steps outlined... are only pledges on Iran's part, of course, and we have to see if they are implemented."

Gary Sick, a senior research fellow at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, took a similar view. Dr. Sick, who served on the National Security Council under three US presidents and was the senior White House aide on Iran during the country's 1979 Islamic revolution, wrote that "by all accounts, instead of being a food fight leading to a total breakdown, the Geneva talks were serious, businesslike, and even cordial... this was a historic moment after thirty years of mutual recriminations and hyperbole. "

"Both sides evidently came prepared to behave civilly, to make some small but important concessions, and to initiate a process of negotiation that has been on ice almost since the moment that George W. Bush decided, for arcane reasons of his own, to declare Iran (which had just finished working closely with the United States to establish a new civil government in Afghanistan) a charter member of the Axis of Evil," he wrote.

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