Along the Russian-Georgian border, war games or prelude to war?

The Kremlin's point of view is that Mr. Saakashvili has still not relinquished his dream of recovering separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force, even though both have since been recognized as independent states by Moscow. Hence, this week's massive Russian war games are presented as a defensive gambit.

"The purpose is to cool down any possible fantasies in Saakashvili's circle, to show that Russia is ready to defend Abkhazia and Ossetia," says Valentin Rudenko, director of the independent Interfax-Military news agency. "Russia has no intention of upsetting the present status quo. Its aims are defensive."

But some experts maintain that Russia has unfinished business with Georgia, and that a new war may be in the cards as early as mid-July. Pavel Felgenhauer, a military expert with the Russian opposition weekly newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, argues that Moscow needs a fresh conflict to consolidate its hold on South Ossetia, control the oil and gas resources of the Caspian region, and rid itself of the all-too-resilient Saakashvili.

"These Russian military exercises have grown in scope each year, and last year, they were a direct preparation for war with Georgia," Mr. Felgenhauer says. "It could be the same this year."

He argues that South Ossetia, a tiny enclave that existed in a kind of no-man's land between Russia and Georgia until last summer's war joined it forcibly with Russia, has become economically unviable since Russian troops sealed its border with Georgia.

"The people in South Ossetia nearly starved last winter," Felgenhauer says. "Basically, South Ossetia cannot survive unless it has an open border with Georgia," as it did in the past.

Since Russia refuses to negotiate the status of South Ossetia with Saakashvili, "that suggests they are planning to deal with him through regime change," Felgenhauer adds.

Russia and NATO last week put aside their differences over last summer's Caucasus war and renewed their military cooperation, but serious tensions remain over US support for Georgia's eventual membership in the Western military alliance.

Both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and the powerful prime minister, Vladimir Putin, have argued that Saakashvili is an illegitimate leader and an unstable personality with whom Moscow can never do business.

But nearly three months of rolling demonstrations by Georgia's opposition have failed to unseat Saakashvili and left the Kremlin with few options to manage the deteriorating relationship with its wayward neighbor.

"Saakashvili and the opposition are locked in a stalemate, at a very low level," says Mr. Khutsishvili. "It's all subsided, but nothing is solved. Most people don't want either side to win, but want the country to move forward."

As for the rumors of war, he says: "The mood here is very tense. But few people think an attack from Russia is imminent."

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