As Ukraine fighting surges, so too do Russian, Ukrainian doubts about the war

Russian casualties in Ukraine could lower support for the war in Russia, where the public supports the rebels, but has no interest in getting directly involved.

|
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Public activists and relatives of soldiers who they say are surrounded by pro-Russian separatists in Ilovaysk, eastern Ukraine, shout slogans during a protest in front of Presidential Administration office in Kiev, Thursday. The posters read: 'Sack traitors generals' (l.) and 'Ukraine [is] together with its troops in Ilovaysk.'

Major battlefield gains by pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine may be absorbing the full attention of Kiev and Moscow, in large part thanks to an all-but-openly-acknowledged boost in Russian assistance to the rebels' cause.

But leaders in both capitals may soon need to take account of growing doubt among their respective publics. Russians are beginning to see how embroiled they are in a war they don't want. And Ukrainians are growing weary of the conflict in the east when other daunting problems loom.

Ukraine argues that its recent military reverses have been caused by the direct intervention of Russian troops. President Petro Poroshenko canceled a planned visit to Turkey on Thursday to deal with the crisis. Moscow and rebel leaders deny that Russian soldiers or hardware are directly involved in the conflict.

But the prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, said Thursday that up to 4,000 Russian "volunteers" have been fighting alongside the insurgents. "We have never concealed that many Russians are fighting in our ranks without aid of which we would be in a very difficult situation," the official ITAR-Tass agency quoted him as saying.

An unwanted war

Mr. Zakharchenko added that Russian volunteers "unfortunately sustained some casualties" – a comment that will fuel a dawning controversy in Russia.

Opinion polls continue to show robust public support among Russians for the east Ukrainian rebels, with 55 percent saying in August that they support the movement of Russian volunteer fighters into Ukraine to back up the insurgents, according to Alexei Grazhdankin, deputy director of the independent Levada Center in Moscow.

But the number of Russians who would support sending Russian troops to fight in Ukraine has fallen from 28 percent in April, to 16 percent this month.

News that Russian troops may already be fighting – and dying – in Ukraine is starting to appear in the Russian media. Several independent Russian news outlets have reported secret military funerals in recent days. A regional chapter of Russia's oldest anti-war group, the Committee of Soldier's Mothers, has drawn up a list of 400 Russian servicemen who have died or been wounded under suspicious circumstances.

And journalists who've tried to follow up on the reports have been attacked and threatened. Two reporters for the liberal TV station Dozhd attempted to talk with family members at a funeral of several paratroopers in Pskov, but were surrounded by young toughs and told to "head to the train station and take the first train back to Moscow."

The steady trickle of dead Russians returning from Ukraine could eventually have a powerful negative impact on public opinion, and that's why it's being kept secret, says Valentina Melnikova, head of the Union of Committees of Soldiers' Mothers in Moscow.

"These secret burials remind me of how it was around [the Soviet war in Afghanistan] in the 1980s. Nothing has changed since those days. There is no official data, nobody writes about it, and we can't find out how many of them have died," she says. "In six months or so, families will understand that they've been betrayed, and then maybe we'll find out...."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indirectly acknowledged the issue's sensitivity by agreeing with a journalist that the reports of dead Russian servicemen in Ukraine should be thoroughly investigated.

'Why should we lose our sons for Donbass?'

The war is also taking a public toll in Ukraine, where the military reverses of recent days have reportedly triggered public protests against the corruption and official incompetence which many hold responsible for the army's failure to defeat the rebels.

The commander of the pro-Kiev Donbass militia, Semyon Semenchenko, organized a protest in downtown Kiev Wednesday to demand authorities immediately dispatch reinforcements to save the group, which is reportedly surrounded by rebel fighters in the town of Ilovaysk, near Donestk. On his Facebook page, Mr. Semenchenko accused Ukrainian generals of deceiving him and abandoning his men to their fate. He added that unless help arrives soon, Ilovaysk will become "a mass grave."

Vladimir Paniotto, director of the independent Kiev International Institute of Sociology, Ukraine's leading pollster, says that support for the war among Ukrainians is showing signs of softening as hope for a quick military victory has evaporated, and the costs of war have escalated.

"People are dying, while corruption in authorities' circles remains rampant," says Vadim Karasev, director of the independent Institute of Global Strategies in Kiev. "There is a third [conscription drive] underway, and it's not going well. Mothers are against it, and now they're taking to the streets in many communities around Ukraine, even blocking roads. 'Why should we lose our sons for Donbass? Let it go,' you hear people saying more and more often."

"There's still some enthusiasm for the fight, particularly in right-wing circles," Mr. Karasev adds, "but the overall mood overtaking society is one of exhaustion."

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to As Ukraine fighting surges, so too do Russian, Ukrainian doubts about the war
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0828/As-Ukraine-fighting-surges-so-too-do-Russian-Ukrainian-doubts-about-the-war
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe