Ukraine elections confirm divisions over Russia, Europe

Some observers dissented from the OSCE view. Several dozen European parliamentarians and other experts with the European Academy for Election Observation insisted they saw no systematic violations that would call the result into question.

"The Ukrainian parliamentary elections were held in compliance with democratic norms," Thierry Mariani, a former French minister, told a Kiev press conference Monday. "We conclude that they were broadly in line with international standards."

With barely half the votes counted by Monday evening, it seemed clear that the Party of Regions was set to win about 36 percent of the votes, a clear expression of its traditional support in the Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. Second, with up to 25 percent, is the Fatherland bloc of Ms. Tymoshenko, whose imprisonment last year on charges of abusing power while she was prime minister has been the main cause of worsening relations between Yanukovych's government and the EU.

"There was a lot of talk about Tymoshenko's waning relevance, because she is in prison and other reasons, but it turns out that her party is as strong as ever," says Olexander Sushko, research director of the independent Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kiev.

"It's actually a bit of a surprise, but it clearly means that she and her party command the support of a stable part of the electorate.... That's very important to keep in mind," he adds.

Another constant but significant fact of Ukrainian political life is that the Communist Party, which usually aligns with the Party of Regions, appears to be on track for a solid third place showing of around 15 percent. This means that Yanukovych may expect continuing pressure on his left flank to continue populist social policies, move closer to Moscow on the geopolitical arena, and to upgrade the status of the Russian language in Ukraine.

But the ascent of two new parties to the Rada may have more unpredictable consequences. The ultra-nationalist, western Ukraine-based Svoboda (Freedom) party surprised everyone by winning over 8 percent of the votes and will have a substantial cohort, for the first time, in the Rada. The rise of Svoboda, which lionizes Ukrainian "freedom fighters" of the past – whom the Russians label "Nazis" – and supports Ukrainian-language-only policies in a country that history made intractably bilingual – is sure to irk Moscow and could lead to heightened political turmoil in Kiev.

Many people worry about Svoboda's aggressive nationalist – some say racist – outlook, but some Ukrainian experts say those fears are exaggerated.

"Svoboda is a right-wing nationalist party, but not unique in Europe," says Mr. Sushko.

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