Moscow sends warships to Syria: war games or evacuation?

"There is a certain transformation in the Russian position, which you can see from the more active diplomatic stance that's being taken," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading Moscow foreign policy journal. "Russia is eager to diversify its options."

Russian media report that the antisubmarine frigate Admiral Chabanenko, plus three huge assault craft -- the Alexander Otrakovsky, Georgy Pobedonosets, and Kondopoga -- are on their way with a supply ship and a tug from the Navy's northern fleet base near Murmansk. They are set to rendezvous with a corvette and a tanker of the Baltic fleet, based in Kaliningrad. They will be joined in the eastern Mediterranean by five ships from the Black Sea fleet, including the destroyer Smetlivy, two amphibious assault ships – named in some reports as the Caesar Kunikov  and the Nikolai Filchenkov  – and two smaller vessels.

Estimates of the number of Russians in Syria range up to 100,000, though no one seems to have a clear figure. Part of the reason for that is that thousands of Russian women have married Syrians over the past 40 years – since Syria became a key client state of the USSR, and huge numbers of (mostly male) Syrian students started flowing into Soviet universities.

"Nobody knows for sure, but 30,000 to 40,000 is a good guess, mostly Russian women, wives of Syrian students, who moved there over past decades," says Georgi Mirsky, an expert with the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. "Then there are children, other dependents. There are smaller numbers of Russian officials and their families," plus employees of Russian companies that are active in Syria.

Mr. Markov says Russia may have to take responsibility for citizens of other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and also up to 30,000 Circassians    -- Caucasian people who fled Russia in the 19th century but some of whom have reportedly petitioned the Russian government for repatriation.

Experts say that Russia took careful note when China successfully evacuated more than 30,000 of its own citizens from war-torn Libya last year, using landing craft of the Chinese Navy to accomplish part of the task.

"Everyone was very impressed by the Chinese operation; it set down a kind of a marker," says Mr. Lukyanov. "It means that we can't do less than that, should the need arise."

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