Russia sees the unfolding nightmare in Syria differently from the way the West perceives it.
Experts in Moscow argue that their Western colleagues have a completely misplaced faith that removing dictators will cure all ills, and they fail to notice the deep, pre-modern social complexities, religious divisions and tribal loyalties that often drive so-called democratic revolutions. "What we see [in Syria] is an extraordinarily difficult situation that threatens to explode into a massive bloodbath. Nobody likes Assad, but if you just remove him the entire state will collapse, with awful consequences," says Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected expert who has been a frequent adviser to Putin.
Russia, which has a restive Muslim minority in its own volatile northern Caucasus, deeply fears the rise of political Islamism and sees it as a direct threat to its own national survival. "For the West, getting rid of Assad seems to be an end in itself. But if Assad is driven out, only chaos will follow," says Vladimir Yevseyev, with the official Institute of International Relations and World Economy in Moscow. "Destabilization in Syria will open the gates for radical Islamists, and spread mayhem across the region."
Worries about possible effects of any potential Israeli or US-sponsored attack against Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program already has a jittery Kremlin organizing special Caucasus-wide war games this summer. The galloping crisis in Syria is only likely to strengthen Russian resolve to oppose Western-backed wars.
