After Israel's Gaza flotilla raid, is Turkey rejecting Europe?

"The primary responsibility for pushing Turkey away lies in attacks on the process by populist politicians in France, Germany, Austria, and the Greek Cypriot government," says Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group in Istanbul. "They use it for domestic political purposes to play on people's fears, and this has done a great deal to make Turks angry towards Europe."

Since 1994, the EU has enlarged from nine to 27 members, bringing in former Warsaw Pact nations. Yet like a bouncer at an exclusive club, the EU stiff-armed Turkey – a NATO member that modernized and democratized in hopes of joining the European party.

Noses out of joint

"The last [Ottoman] sultans sought German and French counseling on the renovation of armed forces and laws," says Mr. Rocard. "Turkey has gone through the process of modernization in an obvious reference to Europe, and we are presently slamming the door on their nose because they don't sufficiently look like us."

After French and German rebuffs in 2006, Turkey calculated it would not be admitted to the EU and pursued a more independent path. Under skillful new Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey has smoothed relations with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Greece, Bulgaria, and even Armenia.

"What Turkey has achieved in the past six months is spectacular – on a par with Deng Xiaoping's decision to make China a status quo power .. and to mend ties with Vietnam, India, and South Korea," says Mr. Heisbourg, who disagrees that Turkey harbors Ottoman-style ambitions.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently blasted critics who say Turkey has turned its back on Europe as "intermediaries of an ill-intentioned propaganda."

More than 50 percent of Turkish exports go to European states, and 90 percent of investment in Turkey is European.

"Turkey has no interest in turning its back to Europe," said former French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine in a Monitor interview. "Would we lose Turkey if the [membership] negotiations failed? I don't think so.... I can't see Turkey forging an alliance with China against Europe just for spite. Turkey's strategic interest is to maintain relations with everyone: the US, Europe,... Central Asia, the Arab world."

Related:

• Turkey gets a new leader of the political opposition, and a chance to modernize its democracy
• Opinion: Islam and democracy can – and do – coexist
• Israeli raid on Freedom Flotilla shatters key Turkey-Israel ties
• US response to Israel’s flotilla raid will shape the Middle East

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