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Agreement on climate change looks unlikely ahead of Copenhagen

A European Union agreement last week was short on specifics. US commitments on reductions may not be forthcoming, making Chinese commitments also unlikely.

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The same dilemma exists in the developing world. Energy-efficient technology is expensive. Developing nations are forced to rely on outdated technology, which, in turn, emits more greenhouse gases.

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"Europe, in producing this [agreement], is ... not talking about ideas that bring in developing countries and the United States," says Mr. Volker. They are talking to their own public."

"This could lead to the unfortunate situation where Europe blames the US for failure to act," adds Scott Barrett, a professor of natural-resource economics at Columbia University in New York. "It's unhelpful for countries to point to one another and say this country is doing well and this one is not."


Yet it appears as if the finger-pointing has already begun. At the UN meeting in Barcelona Monday, Yvo de Boer, executive secretary for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said Copenhagen will fail without firm commitments on emission reductions from the United States.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to the US Congress on Tuesday and urged the US to make a firm commitment at Copenhagen. "Once we in Europe and America show ourselves ready to adopt binding agreements," she said, "we will also be able to persuade China and India to join."

US negotiators have already made clear the US will not commit to reductions until Congress acts on legislation before the Dec. 7 conference – something that appears increasingly unlikely.

Without commitment from the United States, it is highly doubtful that China will firmly commit to reductions.

"China doesn't want to be the country that seems to be doing the least on climate change. They want to take their fair share of international responsibility. At this point in time, we don't have an agreement about what is a fair share," says Bernice Lee, research director of energy, environment and resource governance at the Chatham House in London. "The expectations seem to have been lowered for China in the run-up to Copenhagen because United States has yet to announce a plan."

But, Mr. Barrett notes, negotiators should use the conference to focus on agreeing to address smaller issues, like reduction of ozone-depleting hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HFCs) generated by such items as refrigerators and air conditioners. .

"It's a mistake to say Copenhagen is 'make or break,' " he says. "If it breaks, the problem is still there the next morning. We need to come up with architecture for this challenge in which people can see steady progress. There has never been an issue that has gotten so much attention in terms of international diplomacy where so little was achieved."