Russian clout prevails in S. Ossetia

There are growing hints, however, that Russia may be planning to use its military victory to permanently dismember Georgia. Russian officials are employing language uncannily similar to that used by NATO when it seized the Albanian-populated province of Kosovo in a 1999 war and then recognized its permanent break from Serbia earlier this year.

"The actions of the Georgian leadership in South Ossetia are a crime against their own people," said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who flew to the Russian republic of North Ossetia on Saturday. "There are elements of some kind of genocide against the Ossetian people. It's hard to imagine, after all that's happened, that they'll be able to convince South Ossetia to be a part of Georgia."

South Ossetia, which is ethnically linked to the more populous Russian province of North Ossetia, appealed to Russia's State Duma last year to be annexed to Russia. Abkhazia, a mountainous Black Sea enclave of about 200,000, depends on Russia for aid and protection but insists that it wants independence.

"Georgia has lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia forever," says Maxim Gunjia, Abkhazia's deputy foreign minister, reached by telephone in Sukhumi, Abkhazia. He says Abkhazia has fully mobilized its armed forces in expectation of a Georgian attack, and has mounted an operation to retake the disputed Kodori Gorge, presently occupied by Georgia. "After these events, it's impossible to speak about reconciliation. Georgia has shown its true face."

'New geopolitical competition' with Russia

Georgian experts urge caution about Russian claims of brutality against the Ossetians. "I know atrocities are always committed in any military action, but that can only be judged after the conflict by an independent team of investigators," says George Tarkhan-Mouravi, codirector of the independent Institute for Policy Studies in Tbilisi. He says the war will leave many lingering questions in Georgians' minds. "It's difficult to judge Saakashvili's image just now, but when things calm down people will question whether this was an adventure, or whether it was well planned," he says.

The outlook for Russia's future relations with the West is grim, says Mr. Asmus, the former diplomat, now head of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels. "No one in the West wants a new cold war, but it's clear that despite everything we may have hoped for we are in a new geopolitical competition in the old Soviet spheres of influence. We may lose Georgia. We may lose the project of the "Rose Revolution," the best chance for a democratic future in the Caucasus. The next target for Moscow will be Ukraine," which also aspires to join NATO, he adds.

Robert Marquand contributed from Paris.

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