Kosovo independence: Russia warns of separatist storm

There are four pro-Russian breakaway statelets on post-Soviet territory. The leaders of two, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, were in Moscow this week to press their case for full diplomatic recognition of their de facto independence. But the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union left large Russian minorities stranded in newly created independent states, as well as many other restive ethnic minorities locked into Soviet-era "autonomous" entities.

"The Kosovo situation shows us with complete clarity that the geopolitical interests of Russia and the West are in fundamental conflict," says Alexander Dugin, head of the International Eurasian Movement, an influential grouping of nationalist intellectuals, businessmen, and policymakers. "Russia should regard this as an opportunity to enlarge its own zone of influence," by recognizing statelets like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, he adds, "this will be a signal for Russian minorities in eastern Ukraine and other places to organize for their own separation.... [Western behavior has shown us] that geopolitical interests now prevail. Any talk of morality is just a disguise."

International law recognizes two potentially contradictory principles: the inviolability of a sovereign state's "territorial integrity" and the right of stateless peoples to "self-determination." Many of the breakups of recent decades, such as those of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union, took place through internal agreement. Even violent changes, such as the disintegration of Yugoslavia, maintained the borders of Yugoslavia's former republics, and breakaway tendencies – such as Bosnia's Serbs – were discouraged.

Russian experts say that the involuntary dismemberment of Serbia has shifted the balance of international practice in favor of self-determination. "We know what kind of chain reaction it might cause," says Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the international committee of the Federation Council, Russia's upper house of parliament. "There can be a domino effect, in Europe, the Middle East, and beyond," he says.

Russia may be the world's ultimate glass house, with 20 autonomous ethnic republics. One, Chechnya, is still in ruins after its independence bid was put down by Moscow in two brutal wars.

Experts say this vulnerability has informed Russia's past insistence on a Kosovo compromise. Now that Kosovo has officially broken away, some still urge caution. "This is a real Pandora's box, and there's no reason to be happy it's been opened," says Gennady Chufrin, vice rector of the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. "If we start recognizing separatist entities, there will be no end to it. The international order, as we have known it, faces collapse."

But Mr. Dugin has a harsh response to that: "We should embrace the same double standards that the West practices," he says. "Russia will crush separatism on its own territory even more drastically than before, while supporting pro-Russian separatists elsewhere. It will be easy to explain this to the Russian people. It's the end of so-called morality-based foreign policy; now only power decides."

Russia's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that it has no plans to immediately recognize any separatist statelets.

"Kosovo is not the end of the world," says Mr. Bazhanov. "We need to keep our perspective. Soon Russia will have a new president, and next year the United States will get a new one. There is a chance we can turn a fresh page, and nothing is inevitable about conflict."

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