Egypt protests: An endgame seems to be approaching, but whose?

Prelude to a broader crackdown?

Was the intimidation of the press and human rights groups today prelude to a crackdown? Many think so. Activists in Cairo believe the violence has been engineered by the state to justify a crackdown, to frighten average Egyptians from joining protests, and to exhaust the protesters into leaving the streets and Egypt's autocracy intact, though likely with a new man at the helm.

At today's press conference, new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq repeatedly apologized for yesterday's violence, where soldiers stood aside to allow hundreds of men armed with sticks, knives, and machetes to storm the square, leading to an hours-long battle of Molotov cocktails and brute force that ended with thousands injured and at least ten dead.

Troops in central Cairo intervened more today to protect protesters from the thugs, firing into the air on multiple occasions to keep the pro-Mubarak demonstrators away from them. Mr. Shafiq promised a full judicial investigation while vaguely alluding to "infiltrators" as responsible and saying the violence was caused by the "disappearance" of police from the city's streets.

Blaming 'foreign elements'

The withdrawal of the police had clearly been ordered, and Egypt said today that former Interior Minister Habib el-Adly has been banned from traveling abroad. At around 6:45 p.m. in Cairo, new Vice President Omar Suleiman, now Mubarak's successor in waiting, took to the airwaves complaining that "foreign elements" contributed to the unrest, while promising a presidential election by September. However, Mr. Suleiman gave the impression of seeking to buy time and avoid full reform.

He said "we can talk about complete constitutional reform when a new president comes to the scene," which appears to be a rejection of the protesters' fundamental demand: that political reform start now, not after a successor – likely closely tied to Mubarak and his legacy – has taken power.

His reference to the "state of chaos from both sides" was also not likely to mollify the democracy protesters, who believe they've been targeted by thugs sent by the regime.

Did Suleiman do enough tonight to head off the protesters and fundamental change? Is a crackdown coming that could break the back of demonstrators, or perhaps lead to anti-regime violence in the coming days (from protesters that have been fairly restrained until now)?

We'll find out in the coming hours, and tomorrow.

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