Did Iraq have something to do with Tunisia's uprising?
(This post was edited after creation to correct the first name of Ms. Rubin from the Post).
Jennifer Rubin, a conservative commentator who writes the "Right Turn" blog for the Washington Post has an extended set of musings on Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution today, in which she criticizes Hillary Clinton for a "wishy-washy" statement in support of the nation's protesters and advises President Obama to push the region to give its people a real political voice.
Obama should adopt "concrete polices that can assist democracy advocates not only in Tunisia, but in Jordan, Egypt and elsewhere. If Obama wants to do some more productive "Muslim Outreach," he should stop trying to ingratiate himself with despotic leaders and show that America is, and will continue to be, on the side of those yearning for freedom," she writes.
The problem has always been what concrete action Obama, or any American president, should take as they seek to balance America's often competing interests in the region. Sacrifice intelligence sharing with Egypt or Yemen in exchange for a principled stand and cutting off military aid? Demand fair elections that might well deliver political forces hostile to the US agenda in the region into power?
And in the specific case of Tunisia, the fact that the uprising that drove President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was both spontaneous and entirely local, has been one of its great assets in the eyes of activists that would like to emulate the Jasmine Revolution in places like Egypt or Algeria. There's an argument to be made that the US should express support for democratic change in Tunisia, but avoid getting in the way of a revolution it's had nothing to do with so far and whose ultimate outcomes remain unguessable. (Kristen Chick, the Monitor's correspondent in Tunis, writes this afternoon that many protesters are vowing to resist an interim government that is packed full of Ben Ali's erstwhile underlings.)
One question in Ms. Rubin's column does have a clear answer however. "How much did the emergence of a democratic Iraq have to do with this popular revolt in Tunisia?" she asks.
Having covered Iraq and Egypt full time between 2003-2008, and having explored the question of whether the US invasion of Iraq would spur regional political change at length with academics, politicians, and average folks in and out of the region over a period of years (and talked to people in touch with current events in Tunisia the past few days) the answer to her question is clear: "Little to nothing."
The sectarian bloodletting in Iraq, the insurgency, and the US role in combating it claimed tens of thousands of Iraqi lives, and Iraq remains unstable today. The regional view of the Iraq war was and is overwhelmingly negative, the model of Iraq something to be avoided at all costs. Before I read Rubin's piece earlier today, Simon Hawkins, an anthropology professor at Franklin and Marshall, was kind enough to chat with me about Tunisian politics and history.
Hawkins, whose dissertation was about Tunisia, has been coming and going from the country since the late 1980s. He recounted (unprompted) how the word "democracy" had been given a bad name among many of the Tunisian youth (the same sorts who led the uprising against Ben Ali) because of the Iraq experience, "That's democracy," a group of Tunisian youths said to him in 2006 of Iraq. "No thanks."
The Obama Administration's policies towards the Arab world, largely focused on counterterrorism cooperation and avoiding pushing hard for political reform in autocracies like Egypt, are in fact an almost straight continuation of President Bush's approach, particularly in his second term. It's true that Bush made a ringing call for freedom in the Middle East a centerpiece of his inaugural address, but soon came up against the hard reality that close regional allies like Egypt, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia weren't much interested in tolerating challenges to their rule.
After the Muslim Brotherhood tripled its share in Egypt's parliament in one of the fairest (but still fraud marred) Egyptian elections in decades and the Islamist group Hamas swept free and fair Palestinian elections in 2006, the US took a big step back from Arab democracy promotion. That's a situation that persists today.
Former Haitian dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier talks by phone upon his arrival in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Sunday. Duvalier returned Sunday to Haiti after nearly 25 years in exile - an exile that began just 11 months before Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali came to power by means of a putsch. The connection? France. (Dieu Nalio Chery/AP)
Tunisia and Haiti: One tyrant returns home, one flees
Within days of the people of Tunisia rising up in fury at the corruption of their president and the vicious police state he used against him, Jean Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier, whose picture might as well be next to dictionary definition of "police state," returned home to Haiti after 24 years in exile?
Duvalier went into exile just 11 months before Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali came to power in a putsch against Tunisia's founding President Habib Bourguiba. Both men had opponents whisked away from their homes in the middle of night and tortured, with Ben Ali's Mukhabarat mirroring Baby Doc's Tonton Macoute (though without the voodoo excesses).
Duvalier, like Ben Ali, was driven out of his country by a public protests and riots fueled by anger at bad economic conditions, the corruption of the first family, and the use of the security services to grind down all dissent and public complaint. Both ruled former French colonial possessions.
And just like Duvalier, Ben Ali made a bee-line for France when he fled the country (though France refused Ben Ali's plane permission to land, and it had to stretch its fuel reserves to make it to Saudi Arabia).
Coincidence? Well, it sure feels like some kind of dictator isostatic adjustment is going on.
Ok. Total coincidence. But still...
France was a major backer and ally of Ben Ali's -- to the extent that Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie suggested France could help him put down the unrest at the start of last week. In the case of Duvalier, relations with France were chillier. In 1986, France had resisted taking in the dictator, with then President Francois Mitterand expressing unease at providing asylum to a man with such an appalling human rights record.
But Duvalier's return home to a Haiti perhaps worse off than the day he left, is a reminder that the joyous removal of a dictator is only a first step.
To be sure, aside from their historical ties to France, the two nations couldn't be more different. Tunisia may be poor, but it's far more affluent than Haiti, has a better educated population, and serviceable infrastructure.
But if the next few months aren't managed carefully, with an eye towards really opening both the political system and an economic system that has stood in the way of poor Tunisians making a better life for themselves, there's no guarantee Tunisia will be better off this time next year -- or 24 years from now.
The key players in Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution
The enraged Tunisians who took to the streets in December in revulsion at their corrupt, autocratic regime achieved their primary goal: The removal from power of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. But what sort of new order will emerge in the North African country, or whether it will be much different from the old one, has not yet been determined.
Here's a list of some of the key individuals and actors who will shape the future:
Former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali: The ousted president is now in Saudi Arabia, after the plane he fled on appeared to have been denied permission to land in Malta and Paris, France being Tunisia's former ruler. Born in 1937, he followed a well-trod path to power for post-colonial rulers, joining the anti-French Neo Destour movement while in high school. He also received military training at St. Cyr, France's most prestigious military school. After Tunisia gained independence in 1956, he joined the nation's military, with a specialization in internal security and intelligence. In 1985, he was named Interior minister, making him chief enforcer and suppressor of internal dissent for Tunisia's first president, Habib Bourguiba. In 1987, he led a sweeping crackdown against Islamists for Bourguiba, and was named prime minister. Ben Ali soon turned on Bourguiba, and when doctors declared Bourguiba mentally unfit to rule, stepped in as president.
Though it's hard to imagine Ben Ali returning to power, he amassed vast wealth and still has many loyalists inside the country. Monitor Correspondent Kristen Chick reports from Tunis that elements of the police appear still loyal to Ben Ali. There were fierce clashes between the Army, which is backing the forces of change for the moment, and members of Ben Ali's Presidential Guard, who were driven from the presidential palace Sunday.
The corruption of the regime was widely noted. As the US Embassy in Tunis put it in a cable in 2008 (released by WikiLeaks): "According to Transparency International's annual survey and Embassy contacts' observations, corruption in Tunisia is getting worse. Whether it's cash, services, land, property, or yes, even your yacht, President Ben Ali's family is rumored to covet it and reportedly gets what it wants."
Acting President Fouad Mebazaa: Parliamentary Speaker Mebazaa was named acting president on Saturday. A long-time member of Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Party (RCD) and a key supporter of the regime until recent events, he has promised fast elections and the creation of an interim government of "national unity" that will include members of Tunisia's political opposition, which have long been frozen out of meaningful political participation. Whether the opposition are in fact given a meaningful voice and Mr. Mebazaa shepherds a revision of electoral and political laws will demonstrate whether his promises are sincere.
Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi: Mr. Ghannouchi, another Ben Ali loyalist, at least until recently, has been described in the leaked US embassy cables as a technocrat and generally more respected by the Tunisian public than his former boss, since he's generally seen as less corrupt. Writing at Foreign Policy, Blake Hounshell agrees that he's seen as more honest, but says it isn't clear if he's an acceptable figure to Tunisians, given his close association with the ousted president.
"Ghannouchi is not necessarily any more popular than Ben Ali, though he's not nearly as tainted by the lurid tales of corruption and excess that so damaged the ruling family. But Tunisians certainly don't respect the prime minister; they call him 'Mr. Oui Oui' because he's always saying yes to Ben Ali."
Ghannouchi was "acting president" for a few hours himself on Saturday, before Mebazaa was chosen as the more constitutionally acceptable option.
The Security Forces: The December suicide of Mohammed Bouazizi, an unemployed and despairing young man, was the spark; the mass public protests and riots were the fire; but it was the military's decision not stand between Ben Ali and the conflagration reaching out for him that was decisive on Saturday. Whether the generals really want fundamental change in Tunisia is an open question, and there were signs of heavy-handed behavior against protesters and journalists on Sunday.
Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations had a good snap analysis of the military's role on Friday. "The military's decision to end Ben Ali's rule reflects their desire to save Tunisia from consuming itself in the convulsions of demonstrations, protests, and violence that were sure to continue had the president stayed on," he wrote. "Whether the military's leaders are democrats is not the issue; rather, their concerns seem to be that that graft, corruption, and the practices of one of the worst police states in the Middle East proved to be a threat to social cohesion and stability."
The role of the police is another matter, with indications out of Tunis that some commanders still side with Ben Ali, and persistent rumors that some of the looting and gang behavior in recent days were actually run by cops or intelligence operatives out of uniform, seeking to sow discord.
Outside powers: The country with the most influence on Tunisia is former colonial power France. The Elysée Palace of President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a statement Saturday that "France has taken the necessary steps to ensure suspicious financial movements concerning Tunisian assets in France are blocked administratively," an apparent allusion to the fortune Ben Ali and family members are said to have squirreled away in Paris, a city that first lady Leila Ben Ali regularly visited on the presidential trip for lavish shopping trips. Sarkozy also expressed support for democracy in Tunisia.
Traditionally, France has been a strong supporter and ally of Ben Ali (unlike the US, which could be classed as friendly to Tunisia but had little in the way of strategic interests or investment there). Global Voices has a nice roundup of French press reaction to Ben Ali's ouster, with translation. France was largely silent about events unfolding in Tunisia in recent weeks, and French Foreign Minister Michèle Alliot-Marie expressed steadfast support for Ben Ali as recently as this Tuesday, saying France prepared to provide the "know-how of the French police to the Tunisian police" to put down the unrest.
Tunisia: That 'WikiLeaks Revolution' meme
1720 ET
There's been a rather lot of, well, unsupported analysis on the internet seeking to attribute Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution, which drove President Ben Ali from power yesteday, to Julian Assange and WikiLeaks. Uber blogger Andrew Sullivan writes: "This is a major, er, coup for Wikileaks and the transparency it promotes - especially against tyrants like Ben Ali." The theory goes that private US diplomatic cables from the Tunis embassy released via Wikileaks on December 7 revealed to Tunisians that Ben Ali was an authoritarian despot, that his family was supremely corrupt, and that life was crushingly hard for the Tunisian poor and unemployed, spurring them to take to the streets.
It goes without saying that Tunisians (thanks to the reader who pointed out my typos) were well aware of this and more, and that the spark for weeks of street protests and riots that rolled across Tunisia (and, indeed, are still rolling) was the suicide of a desperate young man in mid-December.
Exhibit A is a piece on the Foreign Policy website by Elizbeth Dickinson. She's careful to couch her claim by acknowledging that Tunisians understood the conditions they were living with, but yet ascribes an agency to the WikiLeak's cable that is, at best, both unproven and unsupported by what people on the ground in Tunis are saying.
"Tunisians didn't need any more reasons to protest when they took to the streets these past weeks -- food prices were rising, corruption was rampant, and unemployment was staggering. But we might also count Tunisia as the first time that WikiLeaks pushed people over the brink," Dickinson wrote.
Well, we might also ascribe what happened to the phases of the moon or to the recent revelation that astrology relies on really, really bad astronomy. Or we might not.
Ben Wedeman, probably the best TV reporter employed by an American channel (he works for CNN) when it comes to the Arab world, is in Tunis and had this to say about Ben Ali's stunning fall yesterday, the WikiLeaks theory, and the public fury that amounted to the first succesful Arab revolt in a long time: "No one I spoke to in Tunis today mentioned twitter, facebook or wikileaks. It's all about unemployment, corruption, oppression." (Monitor correspondent Kristen Chick in Cairo, who's still trying to get a flight to Tunis, writes this afternoon that countries like Egypt and Jordan are looking on nervously at events in the Maghreb.)
The spark for the Tunisian uprising (I'm reluctant to call it a "revolution" since it certainly isn't clear, as Tunisians are kept inside tonight by a harshly enforced military curfew, that the established order will be replaced) was the spectacular self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi in Sidi Bouzid on December 18. Mr. Bouazizi, a 26-year-old computer science university graduate who couldn't find a job in his field and had been reduced to selling fruits and vegetables on the street, set himself on fire Dec. 18 after police confiscated his little stand. The official reason was that he didn't have a permit, but I'd bet the real reason was the he failed to pay a bribe.
Tunisia, like most Arab countries, has mounds of redtape standing in the way of businesses large and small trying to go legit, a legacy of Arab socialism that today largely serves as a pretense for cops and officials to informally extract money from everyone from tycoons to peddlers. When Bouazizi -- a perfect symbol of a generation of young Tunisians who've been well-educated by a system that couldn't provide them jobs -- died in hospital January 5, the rioting and protests that started in his town spread.
Modern communications technology writ large had a hand in all this -- the use of cell phones, blackberry and twitter all helped protesters organize. But a cable written by a US diplomat and released by WikiLeaks that contained no revelations for either Tunisians or people already interested in the country, is a highly unlikely vector of revolution. Ms. Dickinson writes that: "Of course, Tunisians didn't need anyone to tell them this. But the details noted in the cables -- for example, the fact that the first lady may have made massive profits off a private school -- stirred things up." Perhaps. But Leila Ben Ali, the president's wife, has been a hated figure in Tunisia for years, and she was well-known for taking the presidential jet to France for extravagant shopping trips.
I'm reminded of the fall of Soeharto in Indonesia in 1998. There, an economic collapse pushed millions into poverty and tens of thousands on to the street. After rioting in the capital, Jakarta, that targetted the businesses and homes of his friends and cronies, the security forces likewise withdrew support and his 30-year rule -- which had weathered plenty of past crises thanks to his iron control over the state -- was over.
The day after he fell, the structural reasons that drove him out were clear. But six months prior, no one could have predicted it. (The fall of Soeharto, by the way, came long before the founding of WikiLeaks. Ditto for 1979's stunning Islamic revolution in Iran.) Soeharto's wife, who went by Ibu Tien ("Mother Tien"), was widely derided on the Indonesian streets too. She was called (never in print or within earshot of state intelligence agents, of course) "Ibu Ten Percent" for her habit of demanding 10 percent of new business ventures in exchange for government approval (a habit she and her husband passed on to their children).
The question of why Bouazizi's act set the country on fire is of course a fascinating one. After all, the Ben Ali regime was as repressive six months ago or a year ago or five years ago as it was today. And while rising prices and a worsening unemployment situation fueled this fire, the picture was likewise pretty bad for folks like him years ago. The unrest itself got so bad that key members of the security forces withdrew support from Ben Ali, unwilling to do the dirty work of killing hundreds to end the protests and risk going down with him. But why now? That's something historians and political scientists will spend years working out.
The US diplomatic cables themselves are fascinating backgrounders on Tunisia, by the way. I reccomend starting with this one which emphasizes that Tunisians' already had a dim view of the first family's business activities. "Tunisians intensely dislike, even hate, First Lady Leila Trabelsi and her family. In private, regime opponents mock her; even those close to the government express dismay at her reported behavior."
The US military is fighting to build... Afghan business culture?
22:10 ET
(I wrote the below two days ago before the blog went live earlier today).
That's apparently the case, according to this Businessweek profile of Deputy Undersecretary for Defense Paul Brinkley:
"Building a culture of business is the only way Brinkley and General David Petraeus, commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, believe they can counteract the legendary forces of destruction here—from decades of war and deprivation to the brutal rule of the Taliban and a reliance on opium as a chief export. 'It's an infusion of optimism in what can seem like a hopeless situation,' Brinkley says. 'The Afghans say, 'People actually want to do business with us? Maybe there is something at the end of the rainbow.' "
Add that to the list of unconventional Pentagon tasks in Afghanistan at the moment -- from a counterinsurgency strategy focused on protecting the Afghan people from their own often rapacious leaders and police (as well as the Taliban) to digging irrigation canals and helping farmers get their crops to market.
My limited experience with Afghanistan is that many people understand how to do business, but violence, pervasive corruption and a high illiteracy rate (to say nothing of being landlocked with awful transportation infrastructure) conspire to make the country one of the poorest in the world.
International investors beyond the extractive industries (who go wherever the oil or minerals are) tend to shun such places, which mean that Mr. Brinkley has a very difficult job as, in the Businessweek reporter's words, "tour guide, ambassador, fixer, motivational speaker, and leader of the unofficial Afghanistan chamber of commerce. With all of his titles and duties, he prefers to think of himself primarily as a matchmaker, negotiating high-stakes unions between multinational companies like IBM and JPMorgan Chase and Afghan officials and entrepreneurs."
It's a fascinating portrait of a very American, can-do and optimistic approach. But it's hard to see a promotional effort yielding much investment fruit (let alone being a lynchpin in ending the war or addressing Afghanistan's pervasive problems) until, well, Afghanistan is less violent and large bribes on transporting fruit from one town to another or getting permits to build a factory (for starters) become aberations rather than the norm. The development of a skilled and efficient work force would be nice too.
And then there's the question of whether the Pentagon -- frequently derided as having a culture that's hostile to entrepreneurial thinking and famously inneficient in its spending -- is the right body to be trying to address Afghanistan's business climate in the first place.
The price tag? $150 million a year, according to the Businessweek article.
Greetings readers (Hi Mom!) and apologies
4 pm ET
The Backchannels blog went live today and our first post was, well, a little misleading. I've been noodling with this in development for a week or two and writing test posts. With the fall of Tunisia's President Ben Ali today (and my test posts this morning focusing on that) we decided to go live early. The problem? A short post that was written at 8:30 this morning, when Ben Ali's prospects were dim, went live to readers at about 4 pm, a few hours after Ben Ali had fled the country. And it wasn't time-stamped.
Then, capping our first day with an extra measure of glory, Google News crawled our site, recognized the early morning post as "new" content, and put it at the top of their page.
Apologies for any confusion if you were drawn here by that outdated story. But welcome. What is this thing? Well, we're not entirely sure yet. I'll be Backchannels primary writer and editor. I spent 15 years reporting and working overseas before coming to the Monitor's Boston headquarters in 2009. This page will largely reflect my interest in America's current wars abroad and the Middle East but I plan to cast a fairly wide net.
An Arab popular revolution (well, sort of) in Tunisia
1:15 pm
I often miss living in the Middle East, but rarely as much as right now. Tunisia's President Ben Ali, a dictator whose continued reign had become untenable for the rest of the Tunisian elite in the face of massive public protests, has just resigned. Al Jazeera is reporting that Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi has taken power as interim president.
Our Egypt correspondent Kristen Chick is currently stuck at the Cairo airport: The Tunis airport has been closed due to the coup d'état/people power revolution/peaceful transfer of power/whatever it is that just happened. I'm guessing that if all this is well-received by the crowds on the streets in Tunis (which seems a safe bet) that the airport will soon reopen, at least in a limited way. The new government will be eager to show it's addressing popular demands, that a military dictatorship to replace the Ben Ali dictatorship is not on the cards. So at least for a little while it may get easier for reporters to get in and do their jobs.
What then? There are lots of reasons to temper optimism that a true Arab democracy is being born – not least of which is that there are plenty of people in the power structure beyond Ben Ali who benefit from the current system. It was those people, in the end, who pulled the rug from under Ben Ali. They were pushed to do it by a wave of protests they couldn't stop, but how they manage the next few months will reveal their intentions and the chances of structural change.
But for now, it looks like the first phase is going about as well as could have been hoped for and the massacre of hundreds in the streets has been averted. Marc Lynch, a George Washington University political science professor who blogs over at Foreign Policy, is following events closely. He was spot-on with this snap judgment about what was likely to come next a little over two hours ago:
"The only path forward I can see which doesn't involve significant bloodshed and chaos is a "soft coup," with a caretaker government and promise of rapid move to elections. I hope that somebody -- the Obama administration, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, President Sarkozy -- is ready to make that quiet phone call and tell Ben Ali that his service to his nation has come to an end."
Keep an eye out for more of Marc's posts. He's been spot-on about a lot of things in the Arab world – particularly on the outlook for democracy, the way the US wields its influence, and the rule of the regional media – for a while now.
Tunisia: Military support for protests?
Al Jazeera has great footage of what's happening in Tunisia. Here's a screen capture of a soldier shaking hands with protesters over the razor-wire. Purely anecdotal, and in isolation it doesn't mean much. But a sign of trouble for President Ben Ali. If he does get pushed out, images like this will be illustration why the protestors won.
UPDATE at 9:10 am. Here's a collection of amateur footage of today's protests. AP is reporting that protesters managed to climb onto the roof of the Interior Ministry (that is, the ministry charged with suppressing these kinds of street revolts) and the cops are responding with tear gas (rather than live rounds, which in ordinary times would be the first choice for stopping citizens from overrunning such an important symbol of government power).
Sticking a fork in Tunisia's Ben Ali
8:35 am
A lot of people whose judgment I respect are doing just that on their twitter feeds (I'm finally coming to understand how powerful the medium is as an aggregator of opinion and information about breaking news). The Twitter hash tag being used most often is #sidibouzid, which is the name of the central Tunisian city where rioting broke out in mid-December, after a university graduate reduced to selling fruit on the street set himself on fire to protest the seizure of his cart by the police. (Officially, it was because he didn't have a permit, though most likely it was because he didn't have enough cash to pay a requisite bribe.) A lot in that feed is rumor and should be treated with care, but there's lots of wheat among the chaff.
The usually measured Arabist says the scope of the street protests there are giving him "goosebumps." Blake Hounshell, the managing editor of Foreign Policy magazine, another man who hasn't struck me as the excitable type, thinks "Ben Ali is finished." Shadi Hamid, research director at the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and whose work focuses on democracy promotion in the Arab world, is amazed by the scope of Tunisia's protests though he does offer a note of caution that I agree with: "Algeria was on the brink of the first successful democratic transition in Arab world. Iran seemed on the brink as well."
His point, of course, is that the past excitement about Twitter revolutions and street protests in those two countries wasn't borne out. Security states are generally very durable things.
Still, it's hard to see Tunisia's President Ben Ali wriggling out of his current pickle, where frustration at a weak economy and joblessness has coupled with disgust for the corruption of his own circle to bring out overwhelming numbers of protesters to the streets. While in the case of Iran, the nascent muscle flexing of "people power" was beaten back by a united security establishment, the arrest and torture of key leaders, and an elite that stayed united in the face of demands for sweeping change, there are signs that Tunisia's leaders won't be able to pull off that trick.
Bloggers and activists have been released from prison over the past couple of days and reporters and activists inside the country say there are signs that members of the security forces are siding with the protesters – demonstrating an unwillingness to turn their guns on the crowds or otherwise slow them down. Ben Ali's promise to step down in 2014, hoping that would cool protesters ire, appears to have failed.
This screen capture of Al Jazeera footage shows a vast crowd of protesters in Tunis (I hope to learn how to embed this kind of image soon so you don't have to click through, but bear with me) that's unlike anything I ever saw/experienced in the Middle East (though countries like Lebanon have had protests as impressive).
What comes next? The options range from the protests fizzling out, to Ben Ali resigning and a national unity government being formed to lead the country, to what will, hopefully, be fair elections (the Tunisian foreign minister said this morning that a national unity government would be "feasible" according to Agence France-Presse), to an extended stand off on the streets.
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