Wikileaks reinforces the claim that Pakistan supports the Taliban

In more stable eras, Afghan governments have talked of a “Greater Afghanistan” that includes Pashtun lands in Pakistan, and have openly refused to accept the 1893 Durand Line that forms the border between the two countries. Such conversation is dead for now in Afghanistan as the country tries to get on its feet.

Pakistani Taliban have killed numerous Pashtun tribal elders and leaders of the Awami National Party, a Pashtun nationalist party in Pakistan that at one time espoused separatism but now calls only for greater autonomy from Islamabad.

As the Pakistani Taliban grew in strength, US officials argued that the group was a threat to the Pakistani state and since the spring of 2009, Islamabad has gone on the offensive against the Pakistani Taliban. But it has largely left the Afghan Taliban alone.

The notable exception was the roundup by Pakistani forces of half the Quetta Shura, the leadership of Mullah Omar’s faction of the Taliban. The exact reasons for this remain unclear, but the consensus guess among experts is that Pakistan got wind of backroom talks between the Shura and Kabul, which did not involve Islamabad.

Pakistan wants to be involved in the shaping of events in Afghanistan after an eventual US withdrawal.

“Given that they don’t expect the Taliban to be defeated, and given that they are not interested in chaos in Afghanistan, it follows that they will maintain close relations with and support for the Taliban,” writes Mr. Friedman. Yet, Islamabad cannot be open about that because the US is an important ally. “The only rational policy for Pakistan is two-tiered, consisting of overt opposition to the Taliban and covert support for the Taliban.”

However, heavily supporting the Taliban does not necessarily translate to a more stable Afghanistan once the US leaves. When the Soviet military withdrew in 1989, its highly unpopular puppet government held out several years against insurgents.

Top Pakistan analyst Christine Fair says astute Pakistanis realize that a US withdrawal won’t mean a quick Taliban return but a long, messy struggle.

That could mean finding ways to bring some Taliban back into a coalition government – rather than supporting an overthrow by the Taliban.

The powerful Pakistani Army chief, Ashraf Kiyani, has said in recent months that an old doctrine known as “strategic depth” – whereby an Afghan client state could help Pakistan in the event of an Indian invasion – now simply means Pakistan is looking for a sympathetic government in Kabul. “We want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but do not want to control it.”

Related:

• Congress's response to WikiLeaks: shoot the messenger
• WikiLeaks documents explosive, but no Pentagon Papers -- yet
• WikiLeaks: Why national security isn't Obama's biggest concern
• WikiLeaks shocker? In Kabul, Pakistan support for Taliban is no surprise
• WikiLeaks report fictitious, says Pakistan's ex-spy chief Hamid Gul

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