Pakistan arrests more Afghan Taliban. Why the about-face?

Baradar: Pulling away from Pakistan

There are also indications that Baradar tried to carve out greater Taliban independence over the years, most recently by attempting to open peace talks with Afghanistan without Islamabad’s knowledge.

Baradar is widely considered a "moderate" who instituted a code of conduct for Taliban foot soldiers last year that called for limiting suicide attacks to avoid alienating the population. According to Pashtoon, Baradar met with current Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai in late 2001 and continued to send messages over the years expressing a desire to negotiate – but that other Taliban leaders disagreed. Rumors are circulating, says Pashtoon, that Baradar himself went to Kabul in recent months, outside Pakistani channels.

As the operational chief for the Taliban, Baradar also worked hard to extricate the insurgency from reliance on Pakistani support, says Wahid Mujda, a former Taliban member who now monitors the group from Kabul. After the Taliban's ouster from Afghanistan in 2001, Baradar attempted to rebuild the movement around men not known to be close with Pakistan and sought funding inside Afghanistan rather than in Pakistan.

"He tried to search for financial sources inside Afghanistan. He made some relations with circles inside Iran," says Mr. Mujda. "His activities inside the Taliban movement were not to the benefit of the Pakistanis."

Pressure from the US

Meanwhile, Pakistan has faced increasing pressure from the Americans to move against the Afghan Taliban – particularly after a US drone attacks killed two successive chiefs of a Taliban faction fighting the Pakistani Army. (Some Taliban members continue to deny the death of the second leader, Hakimullah Mehsud.) Pakistan may have seen arresting Baradar and others as a chance not only to stop Taliban efforts to work around it but also to deepen US-Pakistan ties.

Taliban websites have been quiet about Baradar's capture, says Mujda. "That means that they don't want to say anything against Pakistan," he says, suggesting that the Taliban still fear them – maybe more now than ever.

An honest broker, tainted?

But Mohmand doubts such fear could be used at this point by Pakistan to broker a peace deal. Trust is gone, and few potential peace partners of Baradar’s stature remain within the Taliban. While some analysts have suggested Baradar could be turned – or had possibly agreed to be captured so he could broker talks – Mohmand says he's damaged goods.

"The captive would have to speak the language of the captors. No one will pay any heed to what Mullah Baradar will say now. He, as a mediator, as a broker, is totally finished," says Mohmand. "Now I think both sides will have to really fight it out."

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