Why Karzai needs Saudi Arabia for Taliban talks

Omar says that in his meeting with the king, Karzai "will be presenting the program for reconciliation and reintegration." He adds, "the president will also be asking the king to use Saudi Arabia's influence in the region" to support the "peace process."

Any deal will need foreign backing

Such support from major players is seen as crucial for the Afghan government to finalize any deal and make it stick.

A case in point is its talks with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a Taliban-allied warlord. An aide to Arif Noorzai, a former government minister who is helping Kabul negotiate with Mr. Hekmatyar, says the talks are "going well" but "are waiting on the international community" to get behind them. He would not elaborate on specific objections, but think tanks such as International Crisis Group have warned against cutting deals with warlords who have committed serious human rights violations.

Taliban experts, including some former members of the movement, argue that the militants are looking for evidence that the foreign powers backing Karzai are willing to support negotiations on their key demands. These include: withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, release of Taliban prisoners, and removal of Taliban figures from United Nations blacklists.

"The Afghan government is not capable to do this. For this they say we want to talk with the United States, not with the Afghan government," says Wahid Mujda, a former Taliban member who monitors the group as an analyst.

The blacklists made it difficult to hold talks at all, since even former Taliban leaders who could serve as intermediaries are banned from foreign travel.

Before the London conference, the UN offered an olive branch by removing five former Taliban leaders from its blacklist of more than 140 names.

"That's really good, but it's not enough. They should keep releasing others too," says Abdul Wakil Muttawakil, 1 of the 5 whose name was removed. He had served as foreign minister under the former Taliban government.

But Mr. Muttawakil, along with three other former Taliban officials Wahid Mujda, Arsalan Rahmani, and Abdul Hakim Mujahid, all say they have no inside information about events unfolding in Saudi Arabia, highlighting the dearth of mediation efforts at this point.

"The ones removed [from the blacklist] so far are insignificant," says Rustum Shah Mohmand, a former Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan. "There is an enormous trust deficit, and the Taliban generally believe the US has come here to occupy the country."

"I think that Saudi Arabia can help in kickstarting the process, but once the process starts, then I think Pakistan's role would be more crucial and more important."

The Taliban, he argues, "have no other supporter," and despite tensions with Islamabad, the insurgents recognize that Pakistan remains their only haven.

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