Afghanistan war worsening but optimism is up, says new poll

Still, for Dr. Coburn and other analysts, the 30-point jump in optimism over the country’s direction raises eyebrows.

“A 30 percentage point increase in a one-year period in the number of people feeling that the country is going in the right direction just doesn’t feel plausible to me,” says William Maley, an Afghanistan expert at the Australian National University.

He points out that the survey found a 14-point increase in the number of Afghans who feel the 2001 takedown of the Taliban government was “very good.”

“You are talking about things that have happened many years before. You would expect that people’s perceptions would sort of stabilize,” he says.

Polling in Afghanistan: not very straightforward

He and others point out that Afghans do not always feel safe being candid.

“We Afghans sometimes don’t know if the person questioning is someone from the government or whether it’s honest polling,” says Haroun Mir, director of Afghanistan’s Center for Research and Policy Studies based in Kabul. Unfamiliarity with polling can also bump up against cultural traits: “Answers from Afghans are not one word, sometimes it’s a 10-minute speech. And then it’s up to those conducting the polling to get one answer from it.”

Mr. Mir says his reading of the public-opinion climate is one of “growing pessimism” with little enthusiasm about the returning Karzai government, now struggling to assemble a cabinet.
 

Of course, for anyone attempting gauge Afghan opinion, the poor security situation in parts of the country poses a challenge. Dr. Maley points out that “wide swaths” of the country struggled to take part in the election due to insecurity, raising questions about the poll’s “nationwide” sampling.

Warshaw counters: “We think we have access to well over 90 percent of the population. There are small pockets where there are active military exercises or significant insurgent activity.”

The survey involved 600 people interviewing 1,534 randomly selected Afghans in all 34 of the country’s provinces and had a 3-point margin of error. ACSOR has operated in Afghanistan since 2003, and Warshaw has nearly 15 years experience in polling.

“I think what we are seeing in the poll is feasible. If we look at other results where people are still concerned with security and corruption, they aren’t giving a pass to the government and the foreign community here,” says Warshaw. “They are saying they are hopeful that things could change.”

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