Bid for peace accord with China backfires on Taiwan's president

Taiwanese officials have not discussed the possible content of a peace pact, but experts say that the deal would likely obligate Beijing to reduce its military buildup toward Taiwan – a hot-button issue on the island. Taiwan in turn would agree not to pursue constitutional independence from China, as it talked of doing from the mid-1990s through 2008.

“A peace accord would not likely resolve differences over sovereignty, but would make the relationship more predictable,” says Bonnie Glaser, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “If Beijing is confident that Taiwan will not declare independence, then it might be willing to consider drawing down its military buildup opposite Taiwan.”

But critics of the peace deal are dubious. DPP spokesperson Hsiao Bi-khim says that the peace accord is a dangerously “vague” idea that could compromise Taiwan’s military defense. Taiwan already lags China in terms of firepower.

“Who is going to guarantee that peace is sustainable, and would signing a peace accord imply that we are going to reduce our own defense?” Ms. Hsiao says. 

But for Taiwan to actually sign an accord, which was first suggested in 2008, it would require more public support at home and more trust in Beijing than exist today, says Lai Shin-yuan, the Taiwanese government's top policymaker in relations with China.

“The opposition intentionally exaggerated this issue,” she charges. “They don’t have a China policy, so they’re always stirring things up, always making accusations ahead of the election, saying we’re going to sell out Taiwan or unify or whatever.”

Beijing may have pressured Ma into talking up a peace deal, says Peter Gries, director of the University of Oklahoma’s Institute for US-China Issues. Elders in the Nationalist Party, which was formed in China, also like the idea.

“Otherwise, for Ma it’s just a huge faux pas,” Mr. Gries says.

The president’s once comfortable lead in the polls has since mid-October dropped to just one or two percentage points. Some surveys give his closest rival a slight lead ahead of the Jan. 14 election.

China, meanwhile, wants dividends after using its economic might to lift the much smaller Taiwanese economy under Ma’s government. In a trade pact signed last year, for example, China cut export tariffs on 539 items from Taiwan, compared with just 267 granted to exporters shipped from the other side.

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