Why Japan has a problem with prime ministers

On Tuesday, the English language version of the Asahi Shimbun, Japan’s second-largest newspaper, ran an editorial titled "Politics in shambles – Japan's political disease appears to be getting worse by the day."

The same day, Moody’s issued a warning to Japan that it may downgrade its sovereign debt rating to Aa2, citing concerns over creaking public finances and political instability.

"Effective fiscal reform most likely requires stability at the top levels of government," Tom Byrne, Moody's senior vice president, told reporters in Tokyo.

He pointed to the fact that since Junichiro Koizumi, widely seen as the hero leader of the LDP, ended his term in 2006, there have been three Liberal Democratic Party prime ministers and one Democratic Party prime minister who have served for a year or less.

Though, as Takashi Inoguchi, professor emeritus of the University of Tokyo, points out, there is actually nothing new in this. “The success rate [of Japanese prime ministers] is only about 10 percent. It’s always been this way.”

The data appear to bear the professor out: the prime minister has changed nearly 50 times since 1947, though some occupiers of the office have returned more than once.

Some commentators and analysts point to the Japanese media, which tend to turn on leaders en masse, leaving them subject to an undiluted stream of bad press.

“It’s even more difficult these days because we are in the age of so-called monitory democracy – everything is reported and often amplified in a distorted way,” says Professor Inoguchi.

“This didn’t start recently – it’s long been like this in Japan,” suggests Inoguchi. “Things work reasonably well without the prime minister.”

Kan’s days already look numbered

“He has a lot of tenacity to hang on to his position, but the way for him to go is being paved,” suggests Inoguchi.

With rumblings of discontent growing within his own party, Kan has floated the idea of taking his case to the people by calling a snap election. This has, as it was undoubtedly intended to do, unnerved some DPJ lawmakers who know their seats will be extremely vulnerable with the government as unpopular as it is.

“He has two choices, to resign or call a general election. If I were him, I would call an election. I think he will take that [latter] option,” says Inoguchi.

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