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Step toward peace? South Korea agrees to talk with North Korea.

The timing is widely interpreted in South Korea as a dividend of Chinese pressure to ease tensions on the Korean peninsula – and the meeting this week between President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao.

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The Geneva framework agreement of 1994, under which North Korea shut down another reactor for producing plutonium, fell apart after revelation of the uranium program in 2002, but North Korea for several years denied anything to do with enriching uranium.

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View gallery: Who has nukes?

A senior official on the staff of South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak says resolution of the uranium issue and a freeze on North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs “will be the litmus test to see if we can pursue any grand bargain.” Meanwhile, he warns, South Korea is placing “priority” on building up its defenses, and “there will be a clear response” if North Korea again attacks the South.

Mr. Han, the former foreign minister who has also served as South Korea’s ambassador to the US, also credits the US, at the summit this week, with having “persuaded China to accept the importance of having North-South dialogue in advance of six-party talks.” North Korea has repeatedly called for Russia and Japan as well as China, the US, and the two Koreas to return to those talks, “without preconditions,” while skipping demands for North-South talks.

Paik Hak-soon, a long-time analyst of North Korea at the Sejong Institute, an influential think tank here, says Obama and Hu “confirmed the basic principles of how to lower tensions and deal with the nuclear issue.” The next step, he says, is to “create actions that follow these high-level exchanges,” with US officials coming to Seoul and Chinese officials going to Pyongyang to bring about results.

Pressing apology?

As for South Korean demands for an “apology” for past provocations and “action” on the North’s nuclear program, says Mr. Paik, “we have to have dialogue” and South Korea will have to soften conditions.” South Korea, he says, can go on pressing its basic points in actual negotiations.

A senior South Korean official suggests, however, that the road to any North-South agreement will be difficult. “North Korea most fears full-scale war and defeat,” he says. “Military effectiveness of South Korea is most important.” If North Korea “apologizes first,” he adds, “we will talk about the nuclear issue.”

Gary Sorman, a French economist who has written extensively on China and North Korea, warns of the risks of trusting either of them to live up to any agreements.

“Nothing can be decided in North Korea without China,” says Mr. Sorman. “North Korea is completely manipulated by China.”

As for whether the US can get North Korea to stop its nuclear program, says Sorman, “the answer is no.” The US and other countries “have no practical way of stopping this nuclear program,” he says. “We don’t know how to stop this program,” while China “has a strong interest in keeping North Korea in its divisive role.”

The best Obama can hope for, he says, "is stopping these attacks – but only for a brief period.”


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