Australia's Julia Gillard forms new government on shaky ground

Last week it seemed that Abbott was on the verge of victory. Then one independent, Andrew Wilkie, declared himself for Labor. Gillard still needed two of the remaining trio. One, Bob Katter, unexpectedly plumped for the coalition Monday afternoon, making it 74 seats all. An hour later, the other two, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, revealed that they were with Labor. The waiting game was finally over.

Gillard, who – like Mr. Abbott – apparently had no inkling of the pair’s decision until they announced it at a press conference, said her minority government would be held to higher standards of accountability, because of its reliance on the independents. “So let’s draw back the curtains and let the sun shine in, let our parliament be more open than it was before,” she said.

Abbott, who came tantalizingly close to being prime minister, said: “It’s a disappointing day, a disappointing result.”

What's next for Australia?

With Gillard back in power – and finally able to call herself Australia’s first elected female prime minister – she will press ahead with a $38 billion national broadband network and a new tax on the mining industry. However, analysts say that her alliance with Mr. Bandt has thrown other plans into doubt.

The Greens are opposed to the processing of asylum-seekers offshore – Gillard hoped to build a detention center in neighboring East Timor. They also want a conscience vote on same-sex marriage. And under the terms of a Labor-Greens agreement signed last week to secure backing, a high-level climate change committee will be established to investigate the best means of setting a carbon price.

Even before announcing their decisions to back Gillard, Mr. Katter, Mr. Windsor, and Mr. Oakeshott – all of whom represent rural constituencies – had extracted promises of better funding for regional hospitals and schools. Both Labor and the coalition also agreed to implement parliamentary reforms that will curtail long-winded speeches, give more power to backbench MPs and increase the scrutiny of ministers.

Gillard plans to announce her cabinet next week, and Professor Wanna believes the government has a good chance of surviving its full three-year term – provided illness does not claim one of Labor’s MPs. It would look like an opportunistic power grab, he says, if Gillard was to call an early election on the basis of improved fortunes in the opinion polls.

“We’ve seen minority governments at the state level that have been stable,” he says. “The British Conservatives are having to learn to work with the Liberal Democrats. Canada has got a minority government, New Zealand depends on the support of another party to govern. This seems to be a trend in some of the Anglo-developed parliamentary systems.”

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