Thai turmoil escalates as troops hit streets

The meeting was to have seen the signing of an investment agreement between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which Thailand is the current chair. Its humiliating breakdown prompted the crackdown.

"To do nothing, it would be over for the government. But enforcing the emergency decree isn't easy. We don't have a good record on this," says Mr. Panitan.

During last year's protests, two declarations of emergency fizzled, as security forces shied away from confrontations with demonstrators. Military commanders said at the time that their troops were neutral and instead asked the then-government to resign, as it eventually did after a controversial judicial ruling ordering three parties in the ruling coalition to be disbanded.

The chaos in Pattaya, and a violent attack Sunday by red shirts who stormed the interior ministry in Bangkok, come just four months after Abhisit took office. At the time his appointment relieved business groups, which had been alarmed by the nation's paralysis. As leader of the Democrat Party, the British-educated economist was also palatable to royal and military elites who opposed Mr. Thaksin, a brash businessman who is currently a fugitive from Thai justice.

That calculation may still hold, as the likely alternative is a military government that dispenses with the fig leaf of democracy, says Michael Montesano, a visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"If the powers that be really think they can put this thing down and that over the long haul they can keep down the people that Thaksin has mobilized, the Democrats will still be a good front," he says.

Thaksin supporters say they are fighting to restore democracy that was hijacked by the 2006 coup. During his five years in power, however, Thaksin was himself intolerant of dissent. Critics say he used executive power to dismantle constitutional checks on his authority and was intent on remaking Thailand's economy to enrich himself.

Starting to play hardball

In recent weeks, Thaksin has used video link to address nightly outdoor rallies of the red shirts, also known as the United Front of Democrats against Dictatorship (UDD). Rural and urban workers are the backbone of the movement, which began in response to the coup and has broadened its appeal beyond loyalty to Thaksin.

Until last week, its followers had sought to distance themselves from the frequently violent protests and occupations held last year by anti-Thaksin forces. But Thaksin has now urged his supporters to march on the capital, declaring in a video address Sunday that he would return to lead them if necessary. "Now that they have tanks on the street and the soldiers are coming out, so it is time for the people to come out for a revolution," he said.

UDD leaders have also spoken privately of their wish to provoke unrest and force their opponents' hand to foment wider antigovernment dissent.

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