What a comparison of Chavez's and Calderon's wars on crime can teach
The leaders of Venezuela and Mexico have been fighting crime in similar ways. But differences in political agendas, cooperation with the US, and high-level corruption raise interesting questions.
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Of course, there are key differences. First, Chavez's focus has not been on security the way Calderon's has. Chavez has a range of other issues in his "Bolivarian Revolution" that draw more of his and his critics' attention. Second, Calderon is cooperating with the United States, accepting US assistance and inviting US advisors, while Chavez has actively rejected US cooperation and kicked out the DEA and other agencies that used to work with Venezuelan authorities. Third, though both governments have a problem with the infiltration of organized crime influence, Chavez has promoted several key officials who have been linked to organized crime, including the head of his armed forces.Skip to next paragraph
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Those differences raise interesting questions for outside observers. First, if the two countries end up with similarly poor results while taking radically different approaches to cooperation with the US, is cooperation with the US a significant variable? Second, if Venezuela under Chavez has arguably managed to reduce poverty and economic inequality but seen increasing violence, can it really be said that reducing poverty is the key variable to improving the security situation?
Like Mexico, Venezuela has a presidential election next year in which Chavez's organized crime war is going to be a key issue for voters. Every poll in Venezuela shows that security and crime are the top concerns of the population, even more than questions about economics or democratic institutions. And like Mexico, there are serious questions over whether the current president or any of the candidates have a strategy to win that conflict or change its nature.
None of the major candidates in either country is proposing a radical shift such as legalization of drug trafficking, negotiation with criminal networks, or an even bigger war against the criminal organizations. Most of the strategies proposed by government and opposition candidates in both countries are fairly similar to the status quo with some changes around the edges (though Venezuela's opposition would likely renew its cooperation with the US).
If Chavez wins reelection, the security situation will likely continue to deteriorate as it has over the past decade. He's not promising anything different and his current health situation appears to have distracted his attention even more. That's a troubling situation for Venezuela's population, which faces the effects of the violent crime directly, as well as for the hemisphere, where Venezuela is a key energy exporter and political player.
For Chavez's opponents, like Calderon's opponents, if they manage to win the election they will inherit a conflict against organized crime whether they make it a top issue or not. Violence associated with crime and drug trafficking will continue in Venezuela. Armed violent groups in both rural areas and the major cities will threaten the stability of the country. They will have to make tough decisions about how to utilize the military or civilian security forces to combat the criminals. They will also need to invest significantly in strengthening institutions to eventually stop the violence. This is a security challenge that will make fixing a post-Chavez Venezuela much more difficult.
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