The 'Mexican spring:' A new student movement stirs in Mexico

The movement is non-partisan, but it is decidedly anti-Peña Nieto. Some signs read “No to the PRI-nosaurs,” a reference to the “dinosaurs” of the old authoritarian regime that only lost control of Mexico in 2000. Another reads, “the PRI will not return.” While many students interviewed yesterday say they are either not voting or voting for the left, none spoke of support for the PRI or the ruling National Action Party (PAN).

This represents the strongest public pushback against Peña Nieto since the campaign began in March. He has enjoyed double-digit leads over his nearest rivals for months. He still has a wide margin, but a poll released by the firm Mitofsky this week showed that his support has fallen 2.3 percentage points – to 35.6 percent – from a poll taken earlier this month. However, his nearest rival, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), is still far behind at 21.7 percent.

The student protests have stirred up a campaign that critics say has seen more in-fighting than proposed policies. In the first presidential debate last month, many criticized all candidates for attacking and defending one another, instead of focusing on the needs and hopes of the populace.

“This phenomenon is like a wake-up call to the candidates,” says Aurelia Gomez, a professor in the Spanish department at Haverford College who specializes in Mexico's 1968 student protests. “I think many different sectors of civil society are really tired of having the same kind of candidates, no matter what party they are from. [The students] will be an important variable to take into account.”

Beyond the election

In theory, youths could tip the race: those under 29 represent about 30 percent of potential voters, says Mr. Cuna. But many analysts and students alike say they don't expect the #YoSoy132 movement to have a major impact on results.

First, many might be anti-PRI but it doesn't mean they are support an alternative. This is the first time that Osvaldo Fourzan, who is studying economics at UNAM, gets to vote for a president but he says he is planning to spoil his vote. “I don't feel that anyone in the political class is representing us,” he says.

He is not alone. In the study carried out by Mr. Cuna, 7 of 10 youths interviewed said they were either not going to vote or doubted they would vote in the upcoming race. Their reason: disillusionment with the state of politics, the rule of law, and the economy.

“But they aren't abstaining because of apathy,” he says, a point underscored precisely by  #YoSoy132. “The movement is a group of urbanized, educated Mexicans coming to the streets to protest the state of democracy in Mexico.”

#YoSoy132's impact on the race is also limited by demographics and geography. For starters, university students only represent a small segment of society. (One obvious missing group is the millions of so-called “ni-nis,” youth who neither work nor go to school, who have dominated the narrative about youths in Mexico since the global financial crisis.)

The movement is also concentrated in the capital, which tends to be more left-leaning than other parts of the country and doesn't reflect the nation overall. In fact, the Mitofsky polls show that youths as a percentage of potential voters prefer Peña Nieto to his two rivals on the right and left.

But students and citizens alike say they feel empowered by the #YoSoy132 movement-in-the-making. “I think it's great that the students have awoken,” says Delia Betan, who works at a daycare center at UNAM and was at the meeting as a form of solidarity, she says.

#YoSoy132 is not the Arab Spring because it's happening within a democratic framework: No one is trying to overthrow a government. But like protestors in the Middle East or the Occupy movement in the US, protestors do see some parallels, and say the movement should remain in place long after July 1.

“This is what is happening all over the world,” says art student Ricardo Escobar. Students, he says, are fighting for more equality and to ensure that politicians govern for everyone, not just themselves. “Whoever comes to power, we have to keep hammering that message,” he says. “This movement has to go beyond the election.”

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