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Could Honduras crisis prompt a power grab in Nicaragua?

Strongarm tactics used during the seven-month political crisis in Honduras set a bad example for the region's other fragile democracies and could lead to a power grab in Nicaragua, critics say.

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The left-wing opposition Sandinista Renovation Movement agrees, arguing that “Ortega has put himself above the Constitution and the laws” to forward his “dictatorial project,” while “the Nicaraguan people in general have no judicial security [to protect] their liberties and rights.”

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Former Supreme Court president Alejandro Serrano said Ortega’s constitutional moves have effectively pushed Nicaragua in the category of “de facto government.” And right-wing opposition lawmaker Eduardo Montealegre has started collecting signatures to introduce a bill calling for Ortega’s impeachment.

US shows concern

The US government is also expressing growing concern about the situation in Nicaragua.

On Jan. 22, Carmen Lomellin, the US Ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), urged the hemispheric body to take stronger measures in countries such as Nicaragua and Venezuela, where democracy is being undermined.

"It is not secret that we are experiencing an erosion of democracy in the region … little by little, in countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, were are witnessing how democratic values are being undermined," Lomellin said in a forum of US ambassadors to Latin America hosted by the Chamber of Commerce, according to EFE wire reports.

But some question how much moral ground the US government has to criticize other democracies in Latin America, after flip-flopping on Honduras. By recognizing the presidential elections in Honduras, left-wing critics such as Ortega and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez say the US effectively legitimized the military ouster of Zelaya, despite earlier coming out against the Micheletti government.

Analysts say the US wobbling on Honduras has set a dangerous tone in a region where several governments and other powerful interest groups were already looking for excuses to consolidate their own power.

“I think that Washington's acquiescence to Micheletti's coup government has set a terrible precedent for the Hemisphere. I have no doubt that other elites who have at best a tenuous commitment to democracy will try to replicate the Honduran example,” said William M. LeoGrande, dean of American University’s School of Public Affairs. “If the United States is unable to effectively defend constitutional democracy in Honduras, what chance does it have of do so anywhere else?” he added.

Michael Shifter, vice-president of policy for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank, says the cases of Honduras and Nicaragua are “rather distinct,” but are part of a larger trend of weakening checks and balances in the region.

“The separation of powers principle, and the rule of law, are often defied and not taken seriously,” Shifter said. “Increasingly in the region, when it comes down to might versus right, the former tends to prevail. What matters is where the power lies, not what the laws say.”

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