Nicaragua is latest in Latin America to reject term limits

The trend has many defenders. Relaxing presidential term limits is mostly justified, says Peter Kornbluh, an expert on dictators at the National Security Archive in Washington. In those countries where leaders are "refounding" nations to give the long-oppressed a voice, single terms have often been restrictive. "The process of expanding term limits derives from pent-up demand for change," he says. "Four-year terms have not proven to be enough [to address] the intractable problems that Latin America faces."

In Mexico, where reelection has been banned since 1917, Mr. Rios-Figueroa says dropping term limits has also been debated as a way to increase accountability, particularly for congressmen who cannot be reelected and thus are often more loyal to their parties than they are to their constituents.

And in Colombia, those who support Uribe's reelection bid say that the president, whose approval rating hovers around 70 percent and who is widely credited for wresting control of wide swaths of the country from guerrilla groups, is key to a successful security strategy.

"This government has made important advances for the progress of the country," says Alfredo Rangel, head of the Security and Democracy Foundation in Bogotá. "People want it to continue."

Mr. Rangel adds, however, that he does see risks to democracy in Venezuela, where Mr. Chávez has closed opposition media stations and today controls almost all the nation's institutions. "Caudillismo signifies the concentration of power in one person above the constitution and laws," he says. "That is what is happening in Venezuela. There is no risk of that happening in Colombia."

Peter DeShazo, the Americas director at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington, says that Uribe runs the political risk, as have Chávez and his allies, of being called power-hungry – which could hurt Colombia's relationship with the United States. Leaders who extend term limits face the risk of stagnation, which can sometimes backfire, as in the case of former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, who won the right to a third term, but had to flee Peru in 2000 amid fraud scandals.

Strongmen rise as institutions weaken

The biggest concern is that too much power for the president is undermining democracy.

That is the fear in Nicaragua, where opponents of Ortega are promising rebellion should he stand for reelection. "If they want to install a dictatorship here, it won't be the first time that the Nicaraguan people will have to overthrow a dictator through armed struggle," says opposition lawmaker Carlos Gadea.

A poll published recently in the opposition daily La Prensa found that 68 percent think an Ortega reelection would weaken democracy and represent a move toward dictatorship.

Term-limit extensions on their own, says Michael Shifter, a Latin America expert at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, are not a threat to democracy. The problem arises when other institutions are too weak to balance the executive branch – a scenario all too common in the region.

"Institutions are not working as they are supposed to in a democracy. And when that happens, people turn to the leader who is going [to] deliver the magic bullet," he says. In that sense, says Mr. Shifter: "The strongman never left Latin America."

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