Honduras talks stall as mediators urge patience

Zelaya was ousted under a Supreme Court order by the military, after the courts, military, and many politicians feared he was trying to scrap term limits for presidents in calling for a national poll to gauge voter interest in a constituent assembly. He has denied that was his intention.

President Arias, a Nobel Peace prize winner, has urged patience. "I am determined to have a resolution, but this will take more time, I imagine," he said Friday.

"We should not be disheartened by the fact this wasn't solved in one round," says political analyst Luis Guillermo Solís. "It will likely take several rounds, indicating that his last peace talks took several years. But because of the timing and because of the nature of the crisis – the dialogue does have a time limit. It can't go on forever."

Interim leaders increasingly marginalized

Zelaya has won support of nations around the world, including the US, which refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the interim government. The US this week announced it was suspending $16.5 million in military assistance programs. The OAS suspended Honduras's membership from the regional body last weekend. Venezuela has suspended oil shipments at preferential prices to Honduras.

Yet Micheletti has the support of Honduran institutions and the business elite in his country, as well as many in the middle and upper classes. Although Zelaya supporters have marched daily since his ouster, a CID-Gallup poll published Thursday showed that 41 percent of Hondurans found his ouster justifiable, compared to 28 percent who oppose the coup. [Editor's note: This polling data was published by the Honduran newspaper La Prensa. Afterward, we learned that CID-Gallup poll included other questions that gave a more nuanced view of public opinion. Click here for an explanation.]

Hugo Chávez: Zelaya will return

The international community could seek to isolate the interim government further in the face of stalled talks. "They could eventually try to wear down the Micheletti government," says Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas, headquartered in New York. "If there is no progress made, the international community could try to put more muscle behind the rhetoric."

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is already calling for that, declaring the talks "dead" on state television Friday. "Why isn't the government of the United States taking more measures, like withdrawing its ambassador?" Mr. Chavez said Friday. "They have only taken lukewarm actions."

He promised Zelaya will return, which could stoke concerns of street clashes in Honduras. "Zelaya will enter Honduras," said Mr. Chávez. "I don't know how, by land, air or sea, but he will return."

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