How the Honduras crisis boosts Venezuela's Chávez

In contrast, the moderate leftist presidents of Brazil, Chile and Uruguay have remained popular even though the global economic crisis has battered their countries.

Chávez pulled Zelaya into his orbit

Recent events in Honduras would have been unimaginable when Zelaya was elected president nearly four years ago as a conservative, not surprising for a member of a wealthy ranching family.

Ever the provocateur, Chávez somehow pulled Zelaya into his orbit a couple of years ago. Honduras began receiving cut-rate fuel from oil-rich Venezuela and joined the Chávez-led "Bolivarian Alliance for the People of Our Americas."

The Honduran crisis began when Zelaya took a page out of Chávez's playbook by attempting to hold a public vote that would open the way for him to change the constitution and run for re-election later this year. The Honduran Supreme Court and the military said the vote was illegal, and troops hustled Zelaya out of the country.

Chávez denounced the coup in class terms.

'A warning for the oligarchs'

"If the oligarchs of this continent break the rules of the game, as they have in the past few days," Chávez said, "the people have the right to resist and fight back, and us with them. This is a warning for the oligarchs of this continent."

Chávez had reason to feel threatened, according to Álvaro Vargas-Llosa, a Peruvian analyst based in Washington at the Center on Global Prosperity, a research center that promotes free markets.

"We can judge from the way that he's reacted – he's been very nervous – that if the coup against Zelaya prevails, this could create a perception in Central America and beyond that Chávez is now facing a powerful counter-reaction, and that people are now willing to stand up to him," Vargas-Llosa said. "This could also embolden foes in Venezuela, including the military, to try to stop Chávez the next time he violates the law there."

An aim to split the OAS?

Eduardo Gamarra, a professor at Florida International University from Bolivia, said Chávez had orchestrated a split in the OAS.

"Chávez and his group want to bring back Zelaya at any cost," Gamarra said by telephone from Miami. "The other group – led by the United States and Brazil _ favors a more cautious approach."

The Obama administration's opposition to the coup seems to have flummoxed Chávez. During the Bush administration, Chávez typically rallied Latin American presidents when the US took a position at odds with their governments.

"Obama has undercut Chávez's ability to be a knight in shining armor and use the US as a foil," Robert Gelbard, a former US policymaker for Latin America, said by telephone from Washington.

An illustration of that came Sunday, when Chávez told Telesur that he blamed "the Yankee empire" – but not Obama – for the overthrow.

"I am not saying that they have the support of Obama because I believe he [Obama] is more like a prisoner of the empire," Chávez said.

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