Obama amps up intervention to prevent Sudan war

But whether the stepped-up diplomatic effort will be enough or in time is an open question. By going public with incentives, the administration opened the door to the NCP’s rejection of their offer. "We reject charity from anyone,” said Bashir adviser Ghazi Salahuddin. “Whatever is our right we should take and whatever is the right of others they should take," he said.

Senior NCP official Rabie Abdelati balked at the idea that the Americans would offer incentives for progress and roll out consequences for stalemate. “If somebody is saying they will do what's agreed upon there's no need to say to him I am warning you,” Abdelati told Reuters. He said the NCP is committed to holding the referenda in South Sudan and Abyei on time.

It is precisely this commitment in word and not deed that the increased, high-level involvement of the Obama administration seems to acknowledge.

Failure to implement agreements

President Bashir and his NCP, which has been in power since 1989, are notorious for signing agreements and failing to implement.

The various iterations – and still no resolution – of the north-south boundary at Abyei are a case in point.

The comprehensive peace agreement called for the border to be defined within six months, but that deadline quickly came and went. Most recently, despite having voiced acceptance for the most recently drawn border – handed down in a ruling by a tribunal in The Hague in July 2009 – the border has not been demarcated on the ground. The NCP has now suggested the demarcation must be complete before the referendum but has continuously stalled on creating the commission that will prepare for the Abyei referendum.

Soldiers from north and south in the region and competing ethnic groups there have taken an increasingly belligerent posture as Abyei’s own referendum on January 9 draws near. Sudan analysts speculate that the type of border and its location may become “bargaining chips in a grander set of trade-offs” in negotiations over postreferendum arrangements, an eventuality that could prove explosive in a heavily armed region where people have long awaited the chance to decide their own future.

Behind on logistics

Neither has southern Sudan’s ruling party made much progress on the logistical tasks necessary for its people – spread across a vast territory with few roads and low levels of education – to participate in a credible vote for self-determination in less than four months time. In addition, southern leaders showed alarmingly repressive tendencies during and after the April elections, which many saw as a dress rehearsal for the referendum.

In short, with all that remains to be done to prepare for the monumental referendums in January and a smooth transition period following the vote, high-level engagement by the United States couldn’t have come soon enough.

Having waited until the last moment to test out its diplomatic surge, even administration officials admit that success is far from sure. “There’s no guarantee” that President Bashir will accept the southern referendum," said Ambassador Rice. “We’re at a very precarious moment.”

President Obama’s long awaited meeting with Sudanese leaders this week will set the stage for whether this US administration is seen as a credible arbiter in Sudan for the next 100 days and beyond.

-- Laura Heaton is a staff member of the Enough Project and blogs at Enough Said here.

-- Laura Heaton is a staff member of the Enough Project and blogs at Enough Said here.

-- Laura Heaton is a staff member of the Enough Project and blogs at Enough Said here.

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