Sex scandal mars runup to World Cup for South Africa President Jacob Zuma

By Scott Baldauf, Staff Writer / 06.09.10

You’re the leader of South Africa, taking one of your three first ladies on a trip to India to try to boost investment ties and south-to-south cooperation, and to remind one of the world’s emerging powers that your country is an emerging power, too.

You hardly need to point out that in just a few days, you’ll be holding the World Cup soccer tournament, the ultimate coming-out party for emerging nations. And then one of your aides hands you a printout of a South African newspaper. It’s a story alleging that your first lady (the one sitting next to you) may have been having an affair with her bodyguard and become pregnant with his child just before the bodyguard committed suicide.

You look at your wife. She looks at her plate of kebabs.

It’s an untimely scandal, the kind that would force almost anyone but Bill Clinton to resign. But for President Jacob Zuma, a man of the people who came to power despite a corruption scandal, an acquittal in a rape case, and despite admitting that he thought that a shower after sex would protect him from contracting HIV from an HIV-positive sex partner, who was not his spouse, scandal has become the new numbing norm.

His party has a lock on power – winning 65 percent of the vote in the last elections – so nobody expects Mr. Zuma or his party to be forced out of office. But it does potentially sap a man who already has enough big issues – such as race relations, a high crime rate, and endemic poverty – to sort out.

For the record, the Zuma family contends that there is no scandal. Zuma’s nephew, Khulubuse Zuma, says that the letter – purported to be written by members of the Zuma family, and reprinted in the City Press, alleging that Nompumelelo Ntuli Zuma “cannot be called to order” and has been carrying on an affair with her own bodyguard Phinda Thomo and may be pregnant with his baby – was simply a forgery, an attempt by Zuma’s enemies to damage his reputation.

But all the denials in the world won’t make the story go away.

This weekend, brothers of MaNtuli – as the wife is known – admitted that they had presented a white goat to Zuma as an apology for an unspecified misdemeanor. And the scandal seems to be causing friction between MaNtuli and Zuma’s other wives, Thobeka Madiba and Sizakhele Khumalo.

It’s a story that seems to come custom-made for British tabloids, which love to catch politicians with their pants down. But it has also exposed a nascent feminist streak among African women columnists, some of whom are saying: “What is good for the goose is good for the gander.”

One columnist in the City Press quoted an expert at the Umsamo African Institute, Velaphi Mkhize, as saying, “Men today do not value what they have at home and if you do not give your wife the respect she deserves, she is going to look for it elsewhere.”

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Are Rwandan Tutsis carving out a mini-state in eastern Congo?

By Laura Seay, Guest blogger / 06.09.10

Seems the integration of the CNDP into the Congolese national army hasn't gone exactly as planned:

The scarlet-lettered flag flaps atop a lush green hill in an apparent declaration of ownership. Here, a rebel movement turned political party collects taxes, appoints local officials and even polices a border post.

These former rebels are accused of populating the land they have grabbed with thousands of people from neighboring Rwanda to form a mini-Tutsi state. The state-within-a-state is emerging in the shadow of Rwanda's genocide two decades ago, and is raising the specter of new violence in war-ravaged east Congo.

..."The situation is explosive," Jean Baumbiliya Kisoloni, vice president of the provincial assembly based in Goma, said of Masisi, one of the districts under the new flag. "I am not really optimistic that this can be resolved without conflict."

...Nkunda was arrested in 2009 under a hastily-cobbled peace accord between longtime enemies Rwanda and Congo, but his fighters were integrated into Congo's military. These fighters — known as the CNDP — have tripled the area under their control to include lucrative mines and tens of thousands of acres.

The issues of land ownership and territorial control by entities other than the state are central to understanding what's going on in the DRC.

I agree with the Pole Institute's Aloys Tegera - who is without question among the best social scientists working in the Kivus - that the numbers of Rwandans reported to be settling in North Kivu are greatly exaggerated, but it does appear that not all of the so-called refugees coming back to Masisi territory are actually Congolese.
There's no question that the CNDP is not interested in seriously integrating itself into the Congolese national government.

They have a good thing going in North Kivu: territorial control, the ability to tax, and plenty of power. As usual, the key issues to watch will be land and citizenship rights.

Periodic disputes over the citizenship rights of Kinyarwanda-speakers that date to the immediate post-independence period flare up every few years. Since land rights flow from citizenship rights in the DRC - and since many Congolese have long lacked documentation as to their citizenship status - there's always the danger that tensions over who is Congolese (and therefore has rights to the land) and who isn't Congolese will erupt into violence.

It's also important to remember that Congolese politicians have a long history of manipulating fears of a "Rwandaphone invasion" to strengthen their political positions. As Tegera points out, North Kivu politicians are engaging in blatant fear-mongering in order to strengthen their political positions. Legislative and presidential elections are scheduled for 2011, and the Congolese government at just about every level is unpopular in the Kivus - primarily because Kabila ran on a platform of bringing peace to the region in 2006. Contrary to their expectations when the region voted for him at above 90 percent rates, most residents of the Kivus have experienced more insecurity since 2006, not less. Politicians in the Kivus have an incentive to stir up emotions in the electorate, and dredging up the spectre of a longstanding enemy is a surefire way to win support.

Are we likely to see outbreaks of violence in North Kivu in the upcoming months? I'm inclined to think not; everyone is on his best behavior for the upcoming celebration of 50 years of independence on June 30, the outbreak of fighting would be disastrous for Kabila in the lead-up to the elections, and Rwanda has an incentive to keep its allies in the Kivus calm until their elections are over in August. Violence tends to occur seasonally in the Kivus; no militant group seeking legitimacy wants to fight during the rainy seasons or to be seen as interrupting key events like the end of the school year, major religious holidays, or elections.

But, still, it must be said: until the state reestablishes territorial control and the key issues of land and citizenship rights are dealt with once and for all, there will not be an enduring peace in the eastern DRC. There's no way around it.

--- Laura Seay blogs at Texas in Africa.

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