The kidnapping of three Western aid workers in Sudan's Darfur region marks a significant escalation of insecurity for relief agencies deployed in the conflict-ridden area.

Canadian nurse Laura Archer, Italian doctor Mauro D'Ascanio, and French coordinator Raphaël Meunier, as well as their Sudanese watchman Sharif Mohamadin, all working for Médecins Sans Frontières, or Doctors Without Borders, were safely released Saturday by unknown gunmen after three days in captivity.

A rebel leader and analysts say the kidnapping and recent expulsion of 13 aid groups are part of a government strategy to scare away remaining aid workers and break up camps housing Sudanese civilians who have fled the war.

"This is the plan of Khartoum," the capital and seat of the Sudanese government, says Abdul Wahid al-Nour, the founder of the Sudan Liberation Movement, one of several rebel factions in Darfur fighting the government over claims that their people have been marginalized. Mr. Nour says the government is trying to force nongovernmental organizations out – "either by expelling them directly or terrorizing them."

The strategy, he argues, is to punish the people of Darfur, a semiarid land along Sudan's western border with Chad, where mostly non-Arab rebels have been fighting the Arab-dominated government since 2003. That punishment, he says, is either "directly" with attacks by Russian-made bomber planes and government-sponsored janjaweed militia – accused of some of the worst atrocities in Darfur – or "indirectly, by cutting off a lifeline to them, which is medication and food."

Sudan's government denies any involvement in the kidnapping. Sudanese officials told the Associated Press Saturday that they will increase protection for aid groups operating in Darfur. But aid groups generally resist such armed protection, viewing it as a violation of their impartiality.

Darfur was home to the world's largest humanitarian operation until the government last week expelled 13 aid organizations from the country – a move that sparked criticism from the United Nations and the Western world. The expulsion followed this month's decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to charge Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir with war crimes.

At a time when Sudan is lobbying to have the case against its president dropped and needs international support, why would one of Africa's most fragile countries choose the path of confrontation?

"The government was angry and chose the most vulnerable target," says one Western analyst who has studied Sudan for close to two decades.

It could also have been a way of proving that the government is still in control, despite the indictment.

Part of the rationale for expulsion was "to follow through with its threats and show the international community that the arrest warrant is counterproductive for Darfur," says Wolfram Lacher, a Sudan analyst at Control Risks Group, a business risk consultancy.

Kicking the NGOs out could also have been out of genuine fear. According to Sudan expert Alex de Waal, program director at the New York-based Social Science Research Council, the ICC prosecutor publicly indicated that much of his information came from NGOs; and aid agencies lobbied the Security Council in favor of the arrest warrant [Editor's note: The original version misidentified Alex de Waal. He is not Sudanese.].

The Sudanese government believes there "is a conspiracy for peaceful regime change. The ICC is part of it. The NGOs could be part of it," Mr. de Waal says. "They genuinely believe that the NGOs were passing information to the ICC."

Some observers say that the expulsions and kidnapping were strategic.

"It is of course interesting to speculate whether this is a targeted attack designed to create a level of insecurity which causes us to rethink [our presence in Darfur]," says one aid worker in Sudan who asked for anonymity to avoid jeopardizing colleagues. "It is no secret that there are plenty of elements in the government who would prefer us all to leave."

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